After logging a limited practice on Friday, Anthony Richardson ($6,000) (oblique) has been listed questionable on the team’s injury report ahead of their Week 5 matchup against the Jaguars on Sunday.
Richardson left the Colts’ Week 4 matchup after taking two backbreaking hits on two carries on the same drive late in the first quarter. Backup quarterback Joe Flacco ($5,500), at the spring-chicken age of 39 years old, popped his helmet on and threw for 168 yards and a pair of scores.
What you lose in Richardson is the ability for spectacularly-explosive plays. But you don’t necessarily lose all explosiveness with Flacco under center.
Let’s take a look at how a potential Flacco start would affect the Colts wide receivers.
Analysis
Let’s start here: this is a cupcake matchup for the Colts pass-catchers regardless of whoever starts at QB. Through the opening four weeks of the season, the Jags’ defense ranks 30th in both points and yards allowed. This is a unit that also ranks dead-last in the NFL in total turnovers forced.
More germane to Flacco and his receivers: Jacksonville allows the second-most passing yards and the sixth-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks so far.
Michael Pittman ($6,000) owners probably, more than anything, felt relief after last Sunday’s stat line. With Flacco chucking the ball around the yard, Pittman caught six of his nine targets, racked up 113 receiving yards, and had a nice YAC effort on a 32-yard catch-and-run. Pittman profiles as the sort of receiver Flacco has excelled at feeding before (there’s a little bit of Anquan Boldin to Pittman, isn’t there? Just a bit?).
Josh Downs’s ($5,100) outlook might be a bit trickier to project. There’s no secret that I’m a fan of Adonai Mitchell ($3,800) and Alec Pierce ($4,900). I wrote about the former here, and have written at length about the latter—no more rhapsodically, however, than here. They’re both big-play threats, like Downs, who’ve flashed athleticism and spectacular catch ability in the first month of the 2024 season. I see this a bit like a hydra with three heads, with a hierarchy as of yet undefined.
A bit on Mitchell from the article linked above:
A reminder of Mitchell’s superlative athleticism, as per his NFL combine scores:
- 40-yard dash: 4.34 (97th percentile)
- Speed score: 117.1 (98th percentile)
- Burst score: 135.2 (96th percentile)
- Catch radius: 10.29 (92nd percentile)
Mitchell is an absolute athletic specimen, and Pierce has flashed spectacular-catch prowess so far.
Still—break it down however you want between them both, but the volume just hasn’t been there. Neither have the opportunities. Outlandish stat: both Pierce and Mitchell have run as many routes as they have registered targets—14 for Pierce and 13 for Mitchell.
As a result of this lack of volume, Downs was the primary beneficiary of Flacco’s play in Week 4. With a pure pocket-passer like Flacco, historical rapport might be as simple a vector as any to follow with regards to potential future production. Last week, Downs grabbed eight of nine targets for 82 yards and a flashy touchdown.
Bottom line
With Jonathan Taylor ruled out and Trey Sermon ($5,700) officially in line to start for the Colts, they’ll need to exploit Jacksonville’s leaky secondary. This sets up a big day for the receiving crew in white and blue.
I’d expect one of either Mitchell or Pierce to stretch the field for a big play this week, but I don’t think that’ll affect either Pittman’s or Downs’s positive fantasy outlooks this week. Be warned of the threat of Pierce and Mitchell, however. They’re talented enough to derail any projection.
Start them both with confidence and hope Mitchell doesn’t have his breakout game.
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