We’re getting to the time of year when the marketplace of fantasy assets is a-buzzin’. I always feel as if, in my leagues, managers start to get nervous if they see their teams start 1-2. They full-on fire-sale if they’re 0-3. Trade offers start bloating my inbox.
Some of you might be out there in leagues where teams with current losing records are rostering Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper. He did, after all, have two absolute stinkers in Weeks 1 and 2.
All of Cooper’s advanced receiving opportunity metrics suggest he’s due for some 20+ FPT weeks in the near future. I condensed them into byte-size format below.
Analysis
You know how much I love opportunity metrics. Targeting Cooper in a trade is all about the expectation that your fellow fantasy manager might not be as informed of the receiving minutiae of ol’ Coop as you’ll be after this. Keep it secret, keep it safe, etc.
Here’s where Amari Cooper, in a struggling Browns passing offense, ranks among wideouts in receiving opportunity metrics through Week 3:
- Fourth in air yards (363)
- First in routes run (124)
- Third in targets (29)
- Fourth-worst among receivers with 10+ targets in catch rate over expectation (CROE; -15.1% catch rate)
- Worst among receivers with 10+ targets in receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE; -90 receiving yards)
You see how the list doesn’t quite square, not even a little bit—right? Amari Cooper is existing at two wildly diametric statistical poles. You know what that means! Positive regression. Our absolute favorite.
Outlook
So, yes—the sort of regression to the mean we’re expecting with Cooper might suggest that he’s in store for some absolutely stratospheric weeks ahead. It certainly suggests that the Browns have been making it a point to get him the ball. He’s run more routes than any receiver in the league through three weeks.
With fantasy performances of 3.6, 4.1, and 27.6 FPTs in PPR leagues, you might still be able to capitalize on a buy-low window for Cooper. You could spin last week’s performance as an anomaly in an offense run by a quarterback who blame-shifts like he was trained to do so in corporate America.
Whatever you do, make a decent offer for Cooper this weekend. It’ll work out well for you in the weeks to come.
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