The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons will kick off Week 5 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football. Each of these NFC South opponents holds postseason aspirations and this will be a matchup that has divisional implications.
The Buccaneers enter with a 3-1 record as Baker Mayfield has continued to look like one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. The Falcons have had some struggles but are 2-2 on the season and still hold an overall positive outlook. Kirk Cousins and company have had a difficult schedule to start the season and are still finding their stride as a team.
There are plenty of breakdowns for the game’s outlook, player props, and more but this article will take a look at some of the top DFS options to help you build your best showdown team.
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Captains Plays:
Hitting on your captain (CPT) is essential to having showdown DFS success on DraftKings. Players drafted as the captain earn 1.5x fantasy points, so they can make or break your slate. Let’s take a look at my favorite captain plays for this week’s TNF slate.
Mike Evans: $15,300
Leading the charge in cost for captain’s plays sits Mike Evans. The five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver has yet to have his full break out on the season and has been held under 100 receiving yards in all four games. Even still, he has produced 18 receptions for 214 yards and three touchdowns on the year.
Tampa Bay has had some struggles stopping aerial attacks this season. They rank 18th in yards allowed and 16th in opposing passing yards despite ranking 28th in pass attempts. Evans is coming off a season in which he led the NFL with 13 touchdowns last season. His breakout has not yet occurred this year, but his track record is as rock solid as it gets. This is a steep price for a team with a lot of weapons on the roster, but if Evans can get in the end zone and have his breakout game his scoring total will be difficult to match.
Chris Godwin: $15,000
The Buccaneers wide receiver who has exceeded expectations to start the year is Chris Godwin. The 28-year-old is leading the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while being tied with Evans for receiving touchdowns. Overall he has recorded 27 receptions, 322 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
Godwin does most of his damage lined up in the slot. He has an intriguing matchup against Falcons slot corner Dee Alford which could set the stage for him to have another monstrous performance. While Godwin has taken a back seat to Evans in past years, his target share and production speak for themselves. He has been on the same page as Baker Mayfield and until the tides shift this feels a better allocation of funds than Evans.
Bijan Robinson: $14,700
The highest-priced captain’s selection on the Atlanta Falcons roster is Bijan Robinson. The second-year running back out of Texas is one of the most talented and versatile weapons in the league but is still finding his NFL footing. After tallying 1,463 yards from scrimmage in his rookie year, Robinson has logged 359 this season and has yet to make it in the end zone.
It also should be noted that Robinson has been limited at practice this week due to a hamstring injury. While signs seem to indicate his intention to play, hamstring injuries can be tricky. It also should be noted that Tyler Allgeier has been more involved in the offense than some expected. He has recorded 198 yards from scrimmage this season and tallied double-digit touches in two of the four games.
While there is no doubt that Robinson is a weapon when he is fully healthy, the hamstring concerns are more than just a footnote. Keep an eye on reports leading up until kickoff, but even if his workload is limited it likely is better to choose a different captain.
Baker Mayfield: $14,400
My favorite choice is Baker Mayfield as the captain’s play. The former number-one overall pick is playing like one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and is coming off a 347-yard passing performance in which he added a pair of touchdowns last week. Through the first four weeks, he ranks 3rd among all quarterbacks and eighth among all NFL players in fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring.
The Buccaneers have found a blueprint for what works for them and Mayfield is a huge part of it. Tampa Bay also leaned heavily on the short passing game last week with Mayfield getting the ball out of his hands at a league-best 2.08 second to snap release average last week. The Buccaneers have been calculated in putting the ball in their playmakers’ hands quickly and allowing them to produce. Expect more of the same on Thursday Night Football and for Mayfield to continue his already impressive season.
Value Picks:
Tyler Allgeier ($4,800)
The hamstring issues lingering over Bijan Robinson strengthen Tyler Allgeier’s case, but there is an argument to be made as to why he should be in your lineups even with Robinson healthy. Allgeier was on the field for 38% of offensive snaps last week. During this time he produced 60 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards in the matchup.
Heading into this week, don’t be surprised if Robinson’s workload is reduced and Allgeier is even more involved in the offense. The third-year back has tallied 196 yards from scrimmage on the season and it also feels noteworthy to acknowledge Robinson only has one touchdown on the year. Overall, he has recorded six carries for -1 total yards on the season. The red zone job feels up for grabs and Allgeier may very well have a chance for his full audition this week. Expect a handful of opportunities with the ball regardless, but for the role to potentially be expanded given Robinson’s status.
Cade Otton ($4,000)
While the dynamic wide receiver group steals the spotlight, Cade Otton has quietly been solid to start this year. The tight end has tallied 14 receptions on 21 targets for 104 yards this season. He has especially been productive the last two weeks in which he has recorded 13 of these catches and 17 of these targets.
He will not win you the week, but as you construct the bottom of your roster Otton could still provide you with positive production. He has yet to record his first touchdown but is building off a successful past two weeks. Otton has been on the field for at least 86% of snaps all four weeks including logging 100% of snaps against the Lions. The opportunity should be there so keep him in mind when building your lineup.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,400)
At the cost of just $3,400, Ray-Ray McCloud is my favorite option out of the value choices. The 27-year-old has tallied 15 receptions on 21 targets for 163 yards so far this season. While he trails Drake London and Darnell Mooney in the offensive pecking order, he has had at least two catches in all four games thus far.
McCloud has big play speed and has had over 50 yards receiving in two games this year. Expect him to be a part of the passing attack as Kirk Cousins continues to get more comfortable within the Atlanta offense. Count on a handful of targets to be directed his way and for McCloud to utilize his legs after the catch. If he can break free for a big play it could completely turn the outlook of your week. Factoring in his expected workload and big play potential, Ray-Ray McCloud is the type of player you should be using to round out your team.
Sterling Sheppard ($1,600)
After spending the first eight years of his career with the New York Giants, Sterling Sheppard joined the Buccaneers this offseason. There were stretches where he was a significant part of the New York passing game, as Sheppard had over 4,000 receiving yards during his time there. Shappard has still yet to fully find his footing down in Tampa Bay but is trending in the right direction. The Oklahoma product originally was on the Buccaneers practice squad, but was upgraded to the 53-man roster and has suited up for the past two games.
Sheppard was on the field for just four offensive snaps when he made his Week 3 debut, but he logged 65% of the offensive snaps last week. He was targeted five times in the matchup which he converted to three catches for 51 yards. This is a risky choice as there is not much guaranteed opportunity heading into Week 5. Sheppard looked like himself last week and made an impact on the game. If you believe in him taking the next steps, this is a bargain price to get the veteran at.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
