Week 5 of the NFL season will be kicked off with a Thursday Night Matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons.
This matchup is set to take place in Atlanta with the Falcons entering as 1.5-point favorites and -125 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers hold +105 odds on the Moneyline while the game total sits at 44 points in the game.
One of the more noteworthy matchups that will play a role in which team comes out with the victory will be between Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin and Falcons CB Dee Alford.
Entering this week, Godwin holds player prop lines of 5.5 receptions, with the over favored at -155 odds, and 64.5 receiving yards, with the odds sitting at -115 in both directions on DraftKings Sportsbook.
For even more exploitable WR/CB matchups for Week 5, check out Steve Buchanan‘s three favorite matchups in his article here: Fantasy Football Week 5: Top WR/CB matchups to exploit
Next Gen Stats & Past Matchups
Godwin has had a successful season so far. He has tallied 27 receptions on 34 targets, which he has converted to 322 yards and three touchdowns this season. He has eclipsed 64.5 receiving yards in three of the first four matchups, including recording 117 receiving yards against the Lions.
Most of this damage has occurred when Godwin has lined up in the slot, as 17 of those receptions, 228 of his receiving yards and two of his touchdowns have occurred when Godwin served as the slot receiver. His 19.2 Reception EPA is an impressive outlier in this category.
Expect Dee Alford to get the primary matchup in these slot opportunities. So far this season he has spent 87 coverage snaps as the primary defender. He has allowed 21 receptions on 25 targets, allowing 180 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns while also adding two pass breakups. When purely looking at his snaps at the slot position, Alford has logged 73 snaps. He has allowed 21 targets in these opportunities, which have resulted in 17 receptions, 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
While these are some concerning results, Alford has had success against Godwin in their careers. He has been held under this 64.5 receiving yard margin in three of the four times they faced off.
Ultimately, it feels as if the Buccaneers’ offense is cruising and the Falcons are just the next defense in the way. Four Tampa Bay pass catchers have more than 100 yards on the season. Baker Mayfield ranks sixth in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns across the entire NFL. Godwin is leading all Tampa Bay wide receivers in targets, receptions and yards. His 322 receiving yards are over 100 more than any other Buccaneers receiver, so count on him to continue to be heavily involved in the offense.
Expect the Buccaneers to have done their homework on Alford’s struggles in the slot and for this to be a matchup that plays a huge role in deciding the victor.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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