I feel comfortable saying Russell Wilson is probably not going to start for the Steelers this year. Which means, both for fantasy football and for the remainder of the NFL season, Justin Fields is the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh.
Having said that, after his impressive effort against the Chargers in Week 3, I did some rabbit-holing through NFL Next Gen Stats.
I think we could be looking at a full-on breakout season for the former-Chicago Bear. His stats are impressive to say the least.
I break them down below. Beware—I rummage broadly, and dig a bit deep below.
A note: I often blurt out these stats as I come across them on my X handle, @dansby_edits, should you want to follow along in real time.
Analysis
Is it just me, or is there sneakily a lot to like about this Pittsburgh offense with the right quarterback at the helm? The offensive line is solid. They need help at left tackle, where all of Dan Moore’s pass-blocking stats are well-below league-average. But, anchored by Zach Frazier, Spencer Anderson, and James Daniels, Pittsburgh quarterbacks are getting an average of 3.26 seconds before pressure. That’s far more than Fields ever averaged in Chicago, and good for a protection rate of 11th in the league.
So, alright—Fields has more time. Are we confident he’ll know what to do with it? It’s the first year in this offense, so there’s going to be a learning curve. Maybe Weeks 1 and 2 were the thickest of it. I’m on the record saying I think the Chargers defense was largely overrated headed into the Steelers game, but not enough that I anticipated Fields having the breakout game he did: 25/32 passing for 245 yards, one touchdown, one interception, alongside six carries for six yards and a rushing touchdown.
Even still, his accuracy stats across the first three games are wild. Right now, Fields is first in the league in completion percentage against pressure, at 83.3%; he also ranks first in the league in catchable pass percentage (86.7%). He’s fifth-best in the league in accuracy against zone coverages (makes sense; linebackers are probably terrified he’s going to take off), and fourth in red-zone accuracy rating, with a completion rate of 75% there.
So: he’s getting more time, and he’s accurate with it even in high-stakes situations. And he can run! He’s got solid weapons in Pickens, Freiermuth, a carousel of running backs, and super-utility man Cordarrelle Patterson. It’s a mystery why he’s not breaking the game. Except.
Consider at his passing opportunity metrics: he ranks 24th in the league in pass attempts (75), 21st in the league in deep ball attempts (7), and 23rd in red zone attempts (8). The Steelers, as a whole, rank 27th in the NFL in pass plays per game. It also suggests that his accuracy ratings are compiled from a below-league-average sample size.
No matter. This is a well-coached team. Mike Tomlin, etc. I’m starting to believe the common denominator, really, could have been (and probably still is) the Chicago Bears. The Steelers will always play slow, but if Fields is as efficient, accurate, and dynamic as he is, we could be looking at a total breakout season.
Outlook going forward
I know he’s going up against a sneaky-stout Colts defense this week (I tell you to stream them here), but Fields should be able to generate enough production on the ground and in the short-game that he’ll provide decent returns on his fantasy week. The Colts might sack him once or twice, might pick him off once, but I think Fields’s touchdown and running game efforts will counterbalance any turnovers for which he is responsible.
As of this writing, we’ve just learned that Russell Wilson’s calf injury is a bit more serious than the Steelers initially thought. Read into the subtext however you want; it matters not. Wilson likely won’t start barring a Fields injury.
If Fields can string together—heck, that’s not even to say improve upon—a few games like his effort against the Chargers last week (also a defense about whom people were wary!), he’ll wedge his way into the mid-tier QB1 conversation.
As for this week, grade him as a low-end QB1 with upside for a nuclear rushing game. I’m starting him in several leagues. I think he’s a must-start; ride the momentum. And pick him up in your league if he’s somehow still available.
Having said that, my colleague and fellow DKN analyst, Stan Son, admonishes you here that Fields is unlikely to exceed 40 rushing yards in Week 4.
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