Hey now! We hit big on the Colts D/ST last week. And, if you listened, you faded the Chargers D/ST and avoided getting stuck with a 4.0 fantasy point performance in standard leagues.
We’re back for the Week 4 edition of D/ST Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em. This time (and going forward) with two for each category.
Start ’em
Los Angeles Rams D/ST (at Chicago Bears; 1.5% rostered)
This is a gut call. Pass rushes have been absolutely roasting Caleb Williams. He’s elusive, sure—but he has an excruciating time to pass (TTP) figure at 2.80 seconds. Defenses pressure him on 35.8% of his dropbacks, and blitz him 29.1% of the time.
Buried beneath the injuries to the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive skill-players has been the emergence of a young-but-scrappy pass rush. Rookie Jared Verse has been playing out of his shoes, though he’s still yet to fully grip the difference between NCAA tackling and NFL tackling.
The Rams are coming off a stolen, vintage Matthew Stafford comeback victory at home over the Niners. The Rams are not a letdown-spot kind of team. And, if anything, while the offense heals up, the defense is going to be focused on improving and gelling such that, when the starting roster looks as it should, the defensive personnel will be in crisp midseason form.
I expect the Rams to give Caleb Williams and that patchwork offensive line plenty of issues. The Rams secondary isn’t elite by any means, but you don’t have to be elite to pick off some of the balls Williams chucks up as, perhaps, homages to his days at USC. That’s the only explanation for some of these ducks.
The Rams are the better-coached team, here. I expect that to generate some turnovers and sacks on Sunday. It’s the sneakiest of sneaky, risky plays.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers; 8.4% rostered)
I can’t believe this defense is even less owned this week than it was last week.
Through three weeks, this defense has:
- 8 sacks
- 2 forced fumbles
- 2 interceptions
- 1 blocked field goal
Most of those stats came against the Bears. Shoutout to the Rams defense this week. But this is a unit that’s been on the rise all year long. I think you’re overlooking them at your own peril.
Sit ’em
San Francisco 49ers D/ST (vs. New England Patriots; 93.9% rostered)
I just don’t think the Patriots are going to turn over the ball, and I don’t think the Niners are going to press the issue. They’ll be able to use their backups-of-backups personnel groupings to replace their injured defensive starters. That didn’t cut it last week against the Rams, but it will against this Patriots team. The Niners can get the win here—all that matters to Shanahan and Lynch—without stressing their players too much at home.
New England takes enough care of the ball and has a boring enough offense that you just might not see a vicious Niners pass rush be able to get home before the ball gets out of Brissett’s hands. I’m sure the Patriots will run the ball with an infuriating degree of crusty New England stubbornness.
Barring a freak play—something that just doesn’t seem to happen when the Patriots are playing—the Niners D/ST might be in line for, say, a seven-to-nine point fantasy week. There are better upside plays out there.
Tennessee Titans D/ST (at Miami Dolphins; 29.1% rostered)
Everyone is ready to use the Titans D/ST as their secret weapon in Week 4. It’s been a fairly stout unit so far, and a bit pesky at times for opposing offenses. But, in my opinion, the best D/ST plays are the highest-upside plays. I don’t see that high of an upside, here, with the Titans.
They have seven sacks so far, but only one forced-turnover (fumble). The Dolphins, like the Patriots, are going to lean on their run game against this Titans defense. Possessions will be excruciatingly-long. Drives will take six minutes and end in three points.
Same deal as above: I just don’t think the Titans will see too many opportunities to capitalize on for plus points in the D/ST slot. Don’t fall into the trap that everyone else is this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
