While it’s exciting to have the MLB playoffs right around the corner, the beginning of Fall does mean we’re back to having to monitor the weather on the east coast. Speaking as someone on said coast, it’s not ideal. For tonight’s 10-game featured slate, we’re keeping an eye on Atlanta and Chicago.
For everything else, let’s dive in and break it all down.
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PITCHER
Stud
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox, $8,300 – I can understand there still being some hesitation about the legitimacy of Francis’ recent run, but this is going to be his final start of 2024, and if he’s only going to cost a little over $8K, I want some exposure. Since re-joining the Jays’ rotation back on August 7, Francis has made eight starts. In those 54.0 innings of work, the RHP has pitched to a 1.67 ERA with a 0.50 WHIP and a 26.9% strikeout rate. He’s also twice carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning. You can thank a new splitter — and a .114 BABIP — for all this success. Regression is coming at some point, but is Boston really going to be the team to make that happen? Across the last two weeks, the Red Sox own a league-worst .208 average.
Value
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, $7,700 – I guess you could say I’m not expecting a lot of runs at Rogers Centre this evening. Bello’s had an inconsistent campaign, but the RHP has looked fantastic across his last five starts — a stretch that began with Bello tossing eight scoreless innings and racking up 38.2 FPTS against this same Blue Jays lineup on August 28. Since that night, Bello owns a 2.45 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. The stuff has always been there, now it’s just a matter harnessing it. I think Bello will continue his run of success on Tuesday in a matchup with a Toronto team that sports baseball’s lowest ISO across the past two weeks (.094).
INFIELD
Stud
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, $5,200 – This isn’t so much a knock against Landon Knack ($7,300) as it is an endorsement of Machado. It’s been an oddly quiet season for the veteran infielder, yet don’t confuse that with a poor one. Machado’s actually been on fire since the beginning of June, slashing .297/.344/.549 with a .252 ISO and a 146 wRC+. With that in mind, this is a more than reasonable price to pay for Machado’s services in a matchup with Knack, who owns a 4.86 FIP as a starter in 2024.
Stud
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins, $4,900 – The Twins desperately need to win some baseball games. Good news: Correa should be in line to have an amazing night in a matchup with Ryan Weathers ($6,500). At this point, I’m willing to blindly trust Correa if he’s facing a left-handed opponent. In 83 plate appearances within the split in 2024, the former All-Star is hitting .310 with a .407 wOBA. That sample is also validated by Correa’s career 140 wRC+ versus southpaws. Weathers, who surrendered three home runs in his last outing, would be wise to tread carefully with the shortstop.
Value
Noah Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, $3,600 – Schanuel isn’t a traditional first base prospect, in that he lacks elite power. Well, he almost lacks power entirely. Still, since the beginning of July, the former first-round pick has posted a 124 wRC+ across 291 plate appearances. He also finds himself cemented in the three-spot in the Angels’ lineup with a price tag way below $4K. Schanuel should thrive in a matchup with Jonathan Cannon ($6,200), who has struggled to a 6.03 ERA over his last seven starts.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles, $6,500 – You can never really say that Soto is in a slump. Despite hitting just .250 with a .191 ISO this month, Soto still possesses a 149 wRC+ so far in September. That’s why he’s a generational talent. Plus, even if he was in a slump, he won’t be after tonight’s matchup with Dean Kremer ($7,000). As is the case with many RHPs, Kremer has always had his issues with left-handed bats. In 2024, that’s translated into the veteran surrendering 1.72 home runs per nine within the split. Woof.
Stud
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, $4,600 – I think it’s safe to say you need some of the Cardinals’ left-handed bats in your lineups on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner ($5,500) has been destroyed by LHBs at Coors Field this season. To wit, Feltner’s faced off with 166 within the split in 2024 and they’ve combined to slash .327/.376/.520 with a .383 wOBA. Burleson has been St. Louis’ best left-handed platoon bat. Coming into this evening’s tilt, Burleson owns an .808 OPS and a 125 wRC+ against RHPs.
Value
Lars Nootbar, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, $4,100 – It’s been yet another injury-plagued campaign for Nootbar, but at least he’s ending on a positive note. The outfielder has had a strong September, slashing .314/.431/.510 with a 163 wRC+. A huge series in Colorado would be a wonderful way to cap off an incredible month and Nootbar’s another LHB to stack against the aforementioned Feltner.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
