Just a month ago, we were talking about Caleb Williams ($5,600) as a generational prospect. This young Heisman winner wasn’t just a great college quarterback; he was the quarterback who would finally lead Chicago back to the Super Bowl.
Well, things haven’t gone to plan. The Bears are off to a disappointing 1-2 start, but that actually glosses over some of their problems. So far, Chicago is the NFL’s third-worst offense, scoring an average of 17.7 points per game. A myriad of issues have already emerged: a porous offensive line, nagging injuries to veteran Keenan Allen ($6,100), and an inability to run the ball with D’Andre Swift ($5,500).
Still, the biggest cause for concern is Williams. The former USC Trojan hasn’t looked anything like the dynamic signal caller NFL front offices fell in love with last year. As a Bear, he’s thrown for just 630 yards and two touchdowns this season. Most concerning of all has been the decision-making; Williams has often thrown ill-advised passes into double coverage, leading to four interceptions.
Although the whispers of ‘bust’ are absurd, it’s clear that not every young QB is C.J. Stroud ($7,000) from the start. Williams will need room to grow, and fans need to readjust their expectations. However, this early into the season, is it fair to already rule Caleb out of the Offensive Rookie of the Year race?
Right now, Williams (+650) sits at fourth in the OROY race on DraftKings Sportsbook, behind Jayden Daniels (+150), Malik Nabers (+250), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (+350).
The odds make sense. Daniels ($6,500) wowed everyone on Monday Night Football, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another in an upset win over the Bengals. Nabers ($6,800) has already emerged as one of the game’s best playmakers, hauling in 23 receptions over three games. Harrison Jr. ($7,500) hasn’t been quite as consistent, but three touchdowns in two games for an exciting Cardinals offense points to his sky-high potential this season.
Long way to go for Caleb, right? Yes…and no.
The quarterback position, more than any other in sports, is directly tied to a team’s win-loss record. While passers can’t put up Trent Dilfer numbers and expect to win hardware, voters are willing to overlook some statistical flaws if a QB makes the postseason. The Bears haven’t looked anything like an NFC contender so far, but the season is young and their roster has undeniable talent on both sides of the ball.
On paper, Chicago’s offense has more weapons than Washington, New York and Arizona. The issue is up front, where the Bears’ offensive line has already surrendered 13 sacks, third-most in the league. It’s just hard to imagine that any quarterback, even one as talented as Williams, can survive with such poor protection.
While it’s impossible to call Caleb the favorite at this moment in time, I’m also willing to say it’s the cheapest his price will ever be this season. Home games against the Rams (32nd in offensive yards allowed) and Panthers (24th) are as good of a get-right opportunity as there is. By Week 6, this club could easily be in the thick of the postseason race in the NFC.
In a sense, a bet on Williams to win OROY is close to a bet on Chicago to make the playoffs (+250 on DraftKings Sportsbook), although it’ll also require other rookies to slip up a bit. Still, if you’re looking for a long-shot futures bet with value, this is the play.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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