Back with the second edition of my High-Flying Hangar series, in which, weekly, I’ll check in on fantasy-relevant pass-catchers to evaluate growing trends in opportunity volume.
As a reminder: We all know that a wideout’s final line might not be indicative of just how involved he was in the gameplan, how often his talent won out on routes for which he didn’t register a reception, etc. I’m going to use this column every week to take a look at each pass-catching position (WR, TE, RB) and highlight some interesting stats and week-over-week trends. So as to, hopefully, give you a leg up in your leagues and on DraftKings DFS.
This week, I want to focus on pass-catchers who are both cheap in DFS and still widely-available in season-long fantasy leagues. Which is to say, they’ll be both value plays and materially applicable for, you know, total domination over your friends.
I also want to hone in on one specific stat: EPA per target (EPA/tgt). When we’re talking about EPA/tgt, we’re talking about the Expected (team) Points Added per Target. This is my focus today because I believe, if anything, it will tell us what offenses think is working with regards to incorporating their in the passing game.
Many of these receivers are still available on the waiver wire in your league. I’ll also be providing a bit of DFS analysis for any of the stats that jumped out to me, so feel free to set DraftKings fantasy lineups at NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] for Week 3.
Liftoff, baby.
Let’s talk EPA/tgt for RBs through two games
The thought here is that if running backs are adding team-wide value each time they get targeted, chances are, offensive coordinators are going to manufacture opportunities for them to get touches going forward. This is what we’re counting on; it’s not always what happens.
And, again, we’re going for guys who are available in your leagues, or cheap in DFS. You should be able to make some moves headed into Week 3, if these stats swing you.
Among your marquee, highly-owned, expensive RBs are the following under-the-radar backs (with at least five targets) generating above-average EPA/tgt:
- Rico Dowdle ($4,800; 37.7% owned): ranks tenth in the league in EPA/tgt with a figure of 0.17. Somehow, has not converted a single first down this year in the Cowboys offense. That will change. What the Cowboys are doing on offense, writ large, isn’t working. But the way they’re incorporating Dowdle is. Look for his uptick in the passing game to continue.
- Zach Charbonnet ($6,000; 74.9% owned): I know—Charbonnet is likely in line for an expanded role at the very least with KWIII’s oblique injury. And so he’s more-expensive and highly-owned. More-than-likely in line for a start in Week 3. But don’t expect that to mean he’ll be running only between the tackles. He’s twelfth in the league in EPA/tgt (0.12). He’s worth this price at DFS this week if you believe he’ll continue to add value in the passing game. I do.
- Justice Hill ($4,900; 9.9% owned): ranks T-thirteenth in the league in EPA/tgt at 0.09. Lamar’s not going to dump off to Derrick Henry, and the Ravens need to figure some things out on offense in order to rebound from their 0-2 start. Look for Hill to see an uptick in passing usage this week, and hereafter.
Again, the reason we’re honing in on this stat today is because it gives us a decent sense of how offensive coordinators might be viewing a running back’s overall value in the passing game. I’d like to believe that these analytics would be encouraging, and would result in more looks through the air for the above three names.
Honorable mention: Pierre Strong, Jr., who’s out this week with a hamstring tweak, is tied with Justice Hill for thirteenth in the league in EPA/tgt.
And for wide receivers?
The league-leaders in EPA/tgt among wide receivers are far more eclectic and less-chalky than the running backs.
The following is the list of league-leaders among wide receivers for EPA/tgt (again, with at least five targets on the season so far). I only provided analysis for those under 60% ownership:
- Khalil Shakir ($5,500; 53.9% owned): Your league leader in most valuable targets, ladies and gentlemen! Shakir averages a whopping 1.52 EPA/tgt. He’s been Josh Allen’s most valuable receiver by far; he’s been the league’s most valuable WR by a significant margin, too.
- Jalen Nailor ($4,400; 2.9% owned): Nailor is second in the league in EPA/tgt at 1.27. How juicy is this, knowing Jordan Addison isn’t going to play? Sam Darnold has been incorporating Nailor into the offense while T.J. Hockenson is out, and Nailor is set to see an even more significant uptick in usage this Sunday. He’s not my favorite DFS play on this list, but he’s close.
- Romeo Doubs ($5,600; 27.1% owned): We jump a bit here over some marquee names—Doubs is seventh in EPA/tgt at 0.91. He was the leading receiver last week (62 yards) against a better-than-it’s-performing Colts secondary. Doubs’s value here likely goes as Jordan Love’s availability goes on Sunday for this week. But, so far as season-long fantasy is concerned, he’s an absolute stash.
- Josh Reynolds ($4,400; 4.3% owned): Reynolds ranks ninth in the league in EPA/tgt at 0.89. Is this more about Bo Nix not being confident in his first-and-second reads? Or is Reynolds actually having a decent season? He’s certainly the most enigmatic figure on this list. And he actually leads this list of names in NFL Next Gen Stats’s Prime Targets metric (4). He hasn’t dropped a single ball yet this season. He’s worth a DFS flier and a stash spot in fantasy if you have one.
- Alec Pierce ($4,800; 34.3% owned): Oh look. Another impressive list on which Alec Pierce has stamped his name. He’s tied with Reynolds above in EPA/tgt. I’ve written too much about this guy. If you want more analysis on him, go here, where I summarize my findings. But, please—believe in this man.
- Jauan Jennings ($4,100; 30.8% owned): Third-and-Jauan is fourteenth in the league in EPA/tgt at 0.81. But with Deebo and CMC out and Kittle banged up, Jennings is due for more volume during an already valuable season. I wrote more about his impressive receiving metrics here.
My favorites on this list for Week 3, obviously, are Pierce and Jennings. I think they’re both on their way to career-best seasons, and I think this week will be a big step forward for both of them. For DFS, I sort of like Nailor to have a big week even with Justin Jefferson playing. His $4,400 price tag is hard to ignore. As is Jennings’s.
We’re banking that game film, weekly practices, and conversations between coaches and quarterbacks all reflect the value this metric suggests. If that’s the case, none of these guys are likely to see a significant drop in production over the course of the season, barring any health concerns or personnel shuffling.
Onto, lastly, tight ends:
Same deal as above. We’ll take any direction we can get when it comes to tight ends. Maybe these are the right tea leaves to be reading.
Again, we’re looking at tight ends here under 60% season-long fantasy ownership with cheap DFS salaries this week. And they need to have been targeted at least five times:
Note: Tyler Conklin currently leads this list, but I don’t mention him here because his Week 3 stats are logged and final.
- Zach Ertz ($3,700; 13.2% owned): First in the league through two weeks in EPA/tgt at a figure of 0.77. Ertz always exuded the sense that he’d eventually move on from the raw, highly-touted athlete phase of his career into the savvy zone-beater he’s become. Don’t underestimate what a safety-valve tight end—especially one converting on such high-value targets—might mean for a rookie QB like Jayden Daniels. Ertz is a great season-long add.
- Brenton Strange ($2,600; 3.6% owned): “Who?” was an appropriate response last week. No longer. Currently third in the league in EPA/tgt at 0.7. He came onto the scene last week such that he’s been generating buzz in Duval all week long—three receptions on six targets for 65 yards last week against Cleveland. Trevor Lawrence loves him. How much are we buying this? (I picked him up in season-long.)
- Tucker Kraft ($3,200; 3.3% owned): Eighth in the league in EPA/tgt with 0.56. And don’t be fooled: His best game was Week 1 with Jordan Love under center. This isn’t some sort of Malik-Willis-binky scenario. The Packers QB situation is in flux this week with Jordan Love questionable (somehow). But I’d keep an eye on Kraft as the season goes along for DFS. Worth a stash in season-long.
- Mike Gesicki ($3,600; 21.5% owned): Gesicki is ninth in the league in EPA/tgt with 0.55, a shade below Kraft. He’s currently the TE6 in PPR leagues and is still available in just about 80% of them. He’s worth a pickup, but with Tee Higgins returning for Monday Night Football, I’ll be interested to see how Burrow distributes the ball.
Strange is worth a long look this week. I added him in all my leagues.
And — End Zone Targets!
I liked ending my Week 1 Air Yards article with the list of wideouts leading the league in end zone targets. So I’ll something similar to end this column.
For my last Hangar sentiment about the wideouts this week, I’ll give you the exhaustive, no-context list of wideouts who have more than two end zone targets through two games:
- Trenton Irwin [5]
- Courtland Sutton [4]
- Brandon Aiyuk [3]
- Mike Evans [3]
- Jailen Nailor [3]
- Christian Watson [3]
- Jameson Williams [3]
Back next week to trace more jet-streams with you!
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