With the departures of Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, and the arrival of Utah, this matchup sets up as one of the premier games of the new conference. Both teams are off to 3-0 starts, and clear contenders to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff — and this game might play a role in which team has the best shot at doing so.
However, we have one major wrinkle in this game. We can’t seem to get a clearcut answer on if Cam Rising, Utah’s star quarterback, will be playing. Trust me, I’ve been putting this article off all week as we try to get some clarity, but it just isn’t happening. So let’s layout a couple of scenarios as to how to bet the game based off Rising’s status.
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Utah at Oklahoma State
Saturday (4pm ET)
The line on this game got to Utah +3 early in the week, as the market was worried about Rising sitting out again. But then Utah revealed that Rising would play, and the Utes moved all the way to -2.5. Then we got rumblings mid-week that Rising might miss the game, which pushed Oklahoma State out to a 2.5-point favorite. Reports now indicate that Rising practiced well this week, and is expected to play, which has the game essentially priced as a pick’em on Friday afternoon. So there’s the rollercoaster we’ve been on this week, now let’s breakdown the actual game on the field.
Oklahoma State has dominant victories over South Dakota State and Tulsa, but when it hosted Arkansas in Week 2 it had its hands full. The Cowboys won 39-31 in overtime, thanks to a miraculous late comeback. However, the defense was abysmal, getting carved up all day. Taylen Green threw for 416 yards for the Hog, and ran for another 61. Ja’Quinden Jackson ripped off 149 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Arkansas was getting whatever it wanted.
If Rising is healthy enough to play, Utah’s offense should be in a good spot to go off. Rising and the Utes put up 49 points in their opener, and then 23 in the first half against Baylor. That’s when Rising injured his throwing hand and left the game, and Utah didn’t score again. The Utes scored 38 at Utah State last week without Rising, but that’s a difficult game to gage anything on.
Assuming Rising plays, I lean Utah as the side in the game. I have these offenses pretty similar, but a large defensive advantage for Kyle Whittingham and his team. That said, I’m more confident in Utah scoring if it has its full offense on the field. Oklahoma State is surrendering 326 passing yards per game (122nd) and 174 per game on the ground (92nd). Utah to go over the team total of 27.5 (-105) is probably a play if Rising plays at anywhere close to 100%.
On the flip side, we saw this line move to OKST -2.5, which doesn’t feel like enough with Rising off the field. No Rising would not only mean no play on the team total, but probably backing Oklahoma State at anything -2.5 or better.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
