The first few weeks of college football have been a bloodbath for me, getting some gruesome beats, some downright awful bets, and everything in-between. Let’s look to right the ship in Week 4, with an exciting betting card to tackle on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s everything I’ve placed so far this week, which wound up being a handful of short favorites on the moneyline.
Kansas at West Virginia ML (-125)
1-unit
Saturday 12pm ET)
The Mountaineers did us dirty last week, leading by double digits with just a few minutes left before giving up back-to-back late touchdowns for another Pitt miracle win. West Virginia returns home with its back against the wall, looking to breakout against a slumping Kansas team. The Jayhawks have lost consecutive games as a favorite to Illinois and then UNLV, coming undone late in both the losses.
Jalon Daniels has been dreadful for KU, tossing twice as many interceptions (six) than touchdowns (three) on the young season. Now the disappointing Jayhawks have to go on the road to face a desperate WVU team. Kansas is giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, and I expect the West Virginia rushing attack and offensive line to take advantage. This is a huge game for both teams to get on track, but I have a lot more trust in the home Mountaineers here.
USC Double Result (+100) at Michigan
1-unit
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
You can ready my full analysis on this game in my breakdown for DK Network here.
TCU ML (-130) at SMU
1-unit
Saturday (5pm ET)
TCU had just a terrible crumble if you bet them last week, surrendering a monster lead at home to UCF. Now the Frogs go on the road for a huge rivalry game in position to bounce-back against a SMU team that’s been one of the biggest letdowns in college football. SMU began the season with Preston Stone, who everyone had high hopes for, but he had been really hurting his team with his decision making. Kevin Jennings has played in every game, replacing Stone at QB, and coming out of the bye, the Mustangs have now made the official switch to Jennings as the starter.
SMU will have plenty of time to prepare its new starter for this one, but it’s a double-edge sword. Jennings has played enough that TCU still has plenty of tape on him. As bad as Stone has been, SMU’s issues go beyond quarterback play. The Mustangs haven’t played any serious competition yet, and the defense really struggled to stop Nevada in the opener. Now they’ll face a Frogs offense that ranks 21st in the country in yards per game at over 450.
Too much offense from TCU here as it rights the ship off a poor second half against UCF.
Cal at Florida State ML (-135)
1-unit
Saturday (7pm ET)
Plug your nose … we’re backing FSU! This is coming from someone that’s been very down on the Seminoles, betting them to miss the College Football Playoff, and fading them on a weekly basis. I was a please backer of Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, so I am 3-0 fading this team so far this season. I think now I’ve finally come around on the buy-low spot.
Cal is off to a solid start to the season, with a pair of wins as a large favorite, but also an upset win as a double-digit dog at Auburn. The Bears play solid defense, but I think we also need to focus on how poor the Tigers were in that loss. I don’t think all hope is lost for FSU, which is playing for pride at this point. Mike Norvell is also probably coaching for his job, and will still get the best effort of his players.
FSU is expected to get both tackles back for this game, which might finally be the boost this running game needs. The ground game was expected to be the backbone of the offense this season, and we saw glimmers against Georgia Tech when the team had better health. I’m going to live dangerously here and back the Seminoles.
Iowa ML (-135) at Minnesota
1.5-units
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
Iowa’s home loss to Iowa State was my largest play of the young season, and I was feeling very good at halftime. The Hawkeyes played a dreadful second half, and came out sluggish against Troy, before ultimately dominating the second half. Minnesota is an interesting team if you go through the results this season.
The Golden Gophers barely lost an ugly game to UNC in the opener, and I feel Iowa can give them a much tougher challenge. Since the UNC loss, Minnesota hasn’t allowed a point, but that was in wins over Rhode Island and Nevada. I’m not sure how much weight that carries here. It might not be pretty from Iowa, which has me leaning towards the under (even at a low number), but I think the Hawkeyes can present more problems on defense that Minnesota hasn’t had to deal with yet this season. I’ll buy-low on the Hawkeyes here.
Michigan State at Boston College -6.5 (-110)
1-unit
Saturday (8pm ET)
Michigan State got off to a slow start the the season, but had an impressive road upset at Maryland before dominating low-level competition last week. I don’t think the Spartans have another road performance like that in them against a BC team that’s really impressed. Sure, maybe we don’t put a ton of stock in the FSU win by the Eagles now, but they didn’t just go on the road and win that game, they dominated.
Then off of the FSU win, BC didn’t disappoint in a letdown spot, routing Duquesne. The Eagles took that momentum on the road in the SEC, and went toe-to-toe with a Missouri team that very well could end up in the College Football Playoff. Mizzou ultimately pulled it off, but Bill O’Brien isn’t looking at it as a moral victory. He’s going to have this tough BC team prepared for a huge Saturday night showdown in Chestnut Hill.
BC has a terrific offensive line, and should find success running the ball at home in this spot. Thomas Castellanos has made huge improvements as a quarterback, and provides elite dual threat ability. Sparty is also going into a rowdy atmosphere here, not only because the Eagles are shaping up to be one of the better teams in the country, but this will also be “The Red Bandana Game” for Boston College. It’s a tradition that BC has had since back in 2014, a game in which they upset a top-10 USC team in. Google it if you’re not familiar, but this game is a big deal for the program. I’m expecting the absolute best from O’Brien’s team in this spot.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
