We’ve got a huge matchup in the new Big Ten, as No. 11 USC travels to No. 18 Michigan. USC is 2-0, with an impressive Week 1 victory over LSU in Las Vegas. The Trojans are coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prep for their first true road test of the season. Michigan is 2-1, but lost the only matchup that mattered, when Texas came into The Big House and put a beatdown on the Wolverines. What can we expect when these teams meet for their first head-to-head as members of the Big Ten.
Check out my full CFB Week 4 best bets article here!
USC Double Result (+100) at Michigan
1-unit
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
If you are unfamiliar with the term “Double Result,” it means betting USC to lead at halftime and then win the game.
You could make the argument that we don’t know a ton about this USC team. The victory in Vegas over LSU was impressive, but the Tigers haven’t looked spectacular this season, and Week 1 can produce some wonky results. In Week 2, the Trojans stomped on Utah State, but there’s only so much we can learn from a 48-0 home victory. If anything, Utah State bounced back well, looking decent in a 38-21 loss to Utah the following week.
If we know anything about USC, I believe it’s that the passing game is going to be elite this season. Much was made of the departure of Caleb Williams, but Miller Moss is more than ready to lead this Lincoln Riley offense, which has plenty of explosive weapons. Moss is completing 72.7% of his passes, and nearly reached 400 yards against LSU.
While Michigan remains relatively stout defensively, the way to attack the Wolverines is through the air. Michigan ranks just 79th nationally in passing yards allowed per game at just shy of 235. Quinn Ewers shredded Michigan for 246 passing yards and three touchdowns when the Longhorns came to town and claimed a dominant 31-12 win. But even Fresno State and Arkansas State both easily surpassed 200 yards in the air, highlighting a big weakness in a Wolverines defense that allowed just 157 passing yards per game in 2023.
While the key to USC winning this game should be the passing game, the reason Michigan won’t be able to play catchup will be its own lack of a passing attack. The Wolverines rank just 110th in the country in passing yards, going for 153 per game. That includes Davis Warren passing for 204 yards against Texas, but that was in a game where his team trailed 31-6 in the fourth quarter.
Now, the Wolverines make the move to Alex Orji, who has been a change of pace quarterback, operating primarily in the running game. He’s carried 10 times this season, and is just 3-for-6 passing, although two were on the goal line for a touchdown. While Orji should help improve the ground game, USC has the 27th-ranked run defense, allowing 102 yards per game.
If Michigan wins this game, it’s going to have to be by absolutely mauling USC with the rushing attack. I don’t see it going down that way. Look for USC to have early success passing the ball, much like Texas. And with Orji in the game, Michigan is even less equipped to stage a comeback with an even less capable passing game. Trojans go wire to wire here.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
