Every week, I’m going to be checking in on the hangar of high-flying, fantasy-relevant pass-catchers to evaluate growing trends in opportunity volume. I’m calling it my High-Flying Hangar series. You can check out my twitter, @dansby_edits, for weekly stat threads for pass-catchers and other fantasy-/betting-relevant players.
As for this series: We all know that a wideout’s final line might not be indicative of just how involved he was in the gameplan, how often his talent won out on routes for which he didn’t register a reception, etc. I’m going to use this column every week to take a look at each pass-catching position (WR, TE, RB) and highlight some interesting stats and week-over-week trends. So as to, hopefully, give you a leg up in your leagues and on DraftKings DFS and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seeing as we only have a sample size of one week, it’s a bit hard to track week-over-week trends so early. Which is why today’s column focuses a bit more on stats that I think are germane to season-long fantasy/DFS, as well as player prop betting markets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Time for takeoff, baby.
Your Week 1 leader for routes run among RBs is …
… Kyren Williams, with 37! Which only surprises me because of the way the game shook out. You would have thought the Rams might have left Williams back in pass protection, given the way injuries absolutely decimated the structural integrity of their 2024 offensive line. But, alas—Kyren’s receiving opportunity scores lower themselves for no circumstance.
It’s a little bit of a misleading stat, however. Williams only averaged 0.1 yards per route, and his average route depth was -1.0 yards. Which is to say: McVay and the Rams just had Williams stay in long enough to chip before deploying him out to the flat behind the line of scrimmage.
Plenty of other interesting receiving stats for running backs, as well, including:
What’s most surprising to me? Alexander Mattison tied for fourth last week in routes run with 22. As the backup to Zamir White! Mattison’s average yards per route run blew by Kyren’s, with Mattison clocking in at 2.1 yards by the end of the game. The Vikings often had him remain back in pass pro, or simply slam himself between the tackles. Seems the Raiders want him to fulfill a bit more of a Josh Jacobs role out of the LV backfield.
Jonathan Taylor is seeing an uptick in passing-game opportunity, as well; he ran 18 routes on Sunday against the Texans. Good news for those that invested in him so late this year.
Two other notable names who ran 18 routes in Week 1: Javonte Williams and Kyle Juszczyk. Lots of bettors were bullish on Juszczyk’s over receiving yards on DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday once they heard Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Given CMC’s shaky status headed into Week 2, Juszczyk’s receiving line might be worth a look.
Keep an eye on J. Williams for season-long fantasy. If you own him, feel free to—at least this week—be a bit smug about all the Jaleel McLaughlin hype over the offseason (he only ran 12 routes).
How about some stats for TEs?
Many of us grabbed Isaiah Likely off waivers this week after his (second or third, really) breakout performance against the Chiefs in Week 1. Given how many of his receptions were dump-offs to the flat at the line of scrimmage, I was surprised that his average yards per route finished at a whopping 4.6. This led all tight ends in Week 1.
Obviously, this is a stat that should make us a bit more excited about Likely’s role in the offense going forward. Here’s one for you that’s a bit more sobering: Likely commanded a 50.0% target share in the Ravens offense last Thursday night. Again, this figure is inflated by how often Lamar Jackson checked down to Likely late in the game, but still.
We should expect some target regression. But seeing as his route depth was, on average, really impressive (almost as impressive as his 9.6 yards per target!), Likely’s opportunities should still be high-value.
More LA Rams talk: Colby Parkinson led all tight ends in routes run in Week 1 with 41. Second to him? Theo Johnson of the New York Football Giants with 33. He finished the game with one reception for 18 yards, but Daniel Jones targeted him four times. His is a name to watch both for DFS and prop markets this weekend.
As for Parkinson—we all need to be a little wait-and-see about the Rams now, what with their decimated offensive line and wideout Puka Nacua on the IR. It’s entirely possible Parkinson might not see as many snaps, or run as many routes, so as to keep him in for pass protection. But he’s worth a watchlist in deep PPR leagues.
Onto an AFC West team: we were all interested how the snap share between rookie TE Brock Bowers and second-year TE Michael Mayer would play out there in Las Vegas. Bowers drafters in season-long were trepidatious. Week 1 should have alleviated some of those concerns: Bowers ran 26 routes to Mayer’s 13. Having said that, Bowers’s target percentage last Sunday was 30.8%, and Mayer’s was 23.1%. They’re both involved, but NFL Next Gen Stats gave Bowers a 90.4 grade among tight ends, and Mayer only a 70.1.
Last note, and about another AFC west pass-catcher: Broncos TE Greg Dulcich finished fourth among tight ends in Week 1 with 29 routes run. We all wondered what Sean Payton had planned for him, especially after the way Payton publicly panned Dulcich in last year’s offseason. The Broncos were overwhelmed, so Dulcich only received a 10.3% target share, but he was out there looking for the ball, at least.
Dulcich didn’t convert many of those opportunities, but anytime someone is top-five in routes run among tight ends on a given week, you pay attention. Do so with Dulcich and perhaps Parkinson, and maybe sprinkle on them both in all sports gaming formats this weekend. They’re fairly low-radar, still.
Anything whatsoever urgent about WRs yet?
Here are three big-name wide receivers whose final receiving lines vastly disguise how involved they were in their respective passing offenses
- Amari Cooper: 175 air yards (most among WRs in Week 1). Final receiving line: two receptions for 16 yards.
- Courtland Sutton: 160 air yards (second-most among WRs in Week 1). Final receiving line: four receptions for 38 yards.
- Calvin Ridley: 149 air yards (fourth-most among etc.). Final receiving line: three receptions for 50 yards.
Buy-low candidates in season-long fantasy. Potential DFS difference-makers this weekend, should you believe the Week 1 winds whatsoever portend to Week 2’s weather, as it were.
This is urgent insofar as it’s something we all want to keep an eye on. Cooper, Sutton, and Ridley are three wideouts fantasy managers may grow frustrated with quickly. The leash is short for all three teams (though perhaps longest for Ridley and the Titans).
If you want to be aggressive, I’d trade for Cooper. Doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball, the dude just gets open and commands targets. Also worth noting that Sutton finished fourth among wide receivers in expected yards in Week 1 with 105. If Bo Nix gets any more accurate, good things could happen.
Something notable on the Ravens’ wideouts: Rashod Bateman absolutely lapped Zay Flowers in air yards. Bateman finished with 121, and Flowers finished with 58. Now, this might be a bit deceiving, as it seemed the Ravens were dedicating a lot of line-of-scrimmage plays for their biggest playmakers.
However, don’t be too deceived: Flowers ran 39 routes to Bateman’s 37. And, perhaps most tellingly, the average yards per route between both these Ravens was not altogether that different. Bateman averaged 1.4 yards while Flowers averaged 0.9. Something to monitor, but Flowers is still the alpha here.
For my last Hangar sentiment about the wideouts this week, I’ll give you the exhaustive, no-context list of wideouts who saw more than one end zone target in Week 1:
- Mike Evans [3]
- Christian Watson [2]
- Brandon Aiyuk [2]
- Keenan Allen [2]
- Jerry Jeudy [2]
- Diontae Johnson [2]
- Xavier Legette [2]
- Courtland Sutton [2]
Back next week to trace more jet-streams with you!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
