This is a really odd slate. While you are anchored by the always marquee matchup between the Yankees and the Red Sox, there’s only a handful of playoff teams taking the field this evening. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching the Marlins and the Nationals square-off as much as the next guy, yet it lacks that September baseball aura, you know?
Not that any of this matters for DFS. Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Value
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $7,400 – Good luck predicting anything with Williams in 2024. The RHP had put together a couple good starts in a row heading into his last appearance against the Dodgers — a contest where Williams wouldn’t even make it out of the first inning. Yikes. Still, for the season as a whole, Williams’ 3.79 FIP tells a very different story than his 5.25 ERA. He’s also struck out 64 opponents in his 60.0 innings of work. These are generally traits of a pitcher who is simply getting unlucky. He’ll look to change his fortune on Thursday evening in a matchup with the Rays. Over the last 30 days, Tampa ranks sixth in strikeout rate (25.6%) and 27th in wRC+ (81). Advantage Williams. …Hopefully.
INFIELD
Stud
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, $5,000 – Not only has Contreras set a career-high in virtually every single counting stat so far this season, but he’s been on another level in the batter’s box since the All-Star break. In his last 204 plate appearances, Contreras owns a .253 ISO and a .900 OPS. That’s not elite for a catcher, that’s just plain old elite. Contreras gets an opportunity to add to those counting stats this evening against Hayden Birdsong ($6,300), who is conceding an eye-popping 2.82 home runs per nine to RHBs in 2024.
Stud
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins, $4,700 – Lost in the recent parade of graduated prospects in Washington is the season that Garcia Jr. is putting together. With 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases, the 24-year-old has an outside shot at finishing 2024 with a 20/20 campaign. He’s also crushing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .291/.330/.472 slash line with a 122 wC+. Garcia and his teammates find themselves in a great spot on Thursday in matchup with Darren McCaughan ($5,500). It’s just a 24.1 inning sample, but McCaughan is surrendering 2.22 home runs per nine at the MLB level.
Value
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $2,700 – I’ll admit, Ryan Pepiot ($8,300) has looked fantastic in his last handful of starts, yet if the RHP has shown a weakness in 2024, it’s left-handed bats. Pepiot owns a 4.60 FIP within the split, thanks primarily to allowing 1.46 home runs per nine to LHBs. Manzardo’s also just incredibly cheap. The top prospect was one of Cleveland’s September call-ups and he hasn’t disappointed, hitting .321 with a 173 wRC+ since the beginning of the month. You could do much worse for less than $3K.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Tyler O’Neill, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, $5,500 – While O’Neill’s viability on Thursday has nothing to do with last night’s walk-off home run, that was an example of what makes the veteran outfielder great. O’Neill had done nothing in that contest prior to the long ball, but as soon as he saw the left-handed Keegan Akin, it was over. In 148 plate appearances versus southpaws in 2024, O’Neill is slashing .322/.439/.760 with a 218 wRC+. Those are video game numbers. Nestor Cortes ($8,000) is about as solid as they come, yet he can’t change his handedness.
Stud
James Wood, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins, $5,300 – If we’re stacking the Nationals, it would be foolish not to include Wood. The 21-year-old has actually shown more speed than power at the big league level, swiping 12 bases to go along with his five home runs. However, his overall numbers against RHPs remain notable, as Wood is currently posting an .832 OPS and a .363 wOBA within the split. McCaughan is bad. The Marlins’ bullpen isn’t much better. I’d expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard with Wood in the middle of the action.
Value
Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, $3,600 – Before I give out the stat you’re all waiting for, I’d like to preface things by saying Refsnyder is an elite platoon bat. In his 144 plate appearances against LHPs this season, the veteran is slashing .304/.396/.522 with a .248 ISO and a 160 wRC+. He hits all lefties well. It just so happens he hits the aforementioned Cortes really well. Refsnyder is 8-for-16 off Cortes with three doubles. Do with that what you will.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
