The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Summer Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR’s fall swing officially begins this week with the Procore Championship (formerly the Fortinet Championship). The event has been played at the Silverado Country Club (North Course) since 2014 and will feature a full field of over 150 golfers, with regular cut rules applying — only the top 65 and ties will play the weekend. This year’s version kicks off the fall swing, but there will be a small hiatus after this event with the President’s Cup scheduled in two weeks.
The field this week features a solid group of players, many of whom will be partaking in the upcoming President’s Cup. The Americans have three President’s Cup team members with two-time champion Max Homa, last year’s winner Sahith Theegala, and 2023 US Open winner Wyndham Clark. On the other side of that event, the International squad has both Corey Conners and Min Woo Lee playing.
This is a full-field event with 150+ players where the cut will take place after Friday with the top 65 and ties making the weekend.
The Course
Silverado CC (North) • Napa, CA
7,166 yards, Par 72; Green: Poa Annua/Bentgrass
This will be the eighth year in a row that the players will tee it up at the Silverado CC. The Silverado North course isn’t extremely long, but there are several challenging features about it that will often work to keep the winning score in the mid-to-high teens. Many holes have tighter tee shots — with a few doglegs thrown in — that require some accuracy off the tee. However, many of these holes can also be challenged by longer hitters who don’t mind taking on some risk, and longer hitters have fared well here in past iterations. The driving accuracy numbers here tend to be quite low (often 10% below the PGA TOUR average), so long and straight hitters have an advantage in terms of course setup.
The smaller greens are primarily Poa annua, and players with good records at West Coast venues with similar green types (Riviera, Torrey Pines and Pebble) have often excelled here, as well. Again though, the four shorter par 5s means the course sets up well for those with length. Overall, the four par 5s at Silverado have played as the four easiest holes on the course. With three of them falling within the 550-600 yard mark, looking at efficiency ratings from that distance isn’t a poor idea. Additionally, there are three par 4s that measure in under 400 yards and only two that measure at over 450 yards. The course has a lot of birdie opportunities available, and those who can set themselves up well off the tee on the long and narrow fairways have tended to post the most consistently low scores here.
Recent winners have traditionally averaged much higher in driving distance for the week. In 2020, Stewart Cink averaged 315 yards off the tee and the field also averaged slightly above the PGA TOUR average for driving distance. Max Homa ranked sixth in strokes gained off the tee at this venue in 2021 and averaged over 310 yards per drive. 2019 champion Cameron Champ is a well-known power hitter and one of the longest players on the PGA TOUR.
Last year’s winner Sahith Theegala didn’t gain strokes off the tee last season but did make it up on the greens by sinking an abnormal number of putts (+8.9 strokes putting). Make sure your players are trending well in tee-to-green stats and around-the-green stats, but be sure to emphasize off-the-tee stats first when researching.
One final note, the warm temperatures and lack of rain in California tend to make the greens at Silverado some of the fastest on the PGA TOUR. If you can find data on players with good records on fast greens, looking to emphasize those players as targets in daily fantasy golf this week could be helpful as well.
2024 Outlook: It looks like we’re going to get some very calm and non-threatening early fall California weather this week. The temperatures are in the low 80s all four days with the wind on Day 1 and Day 2 topping out in the 8-10 mph range in the afternoon. None of the four days look all that different in forecast so expect the course to be firm and fast as it often has in the past. For round-by-round bets and single-day DFS lineups, early starters will likely have a small advantage given the slightly cooler temperatures.
Last Five Winners
2023: Sahith Theegala -21 (over SH Kim -19)
2022: Max Homa -16 (over Danny Willet -15)
2021: Max Homa -19 (over Maverick McNealy -18)
2020: Stewart Cink -21 (over Harry Higgs -19)
2019: Cameron Champ -17 (over Adam Hadwin -16)
Winning Trends
10 of the last 11 winners have all had a finish of T21 or better in one of their past four tournament starts.
Six of the last seven winners of the Fortinet Championship made it to the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs (BMW or Dell Championships) — none of the past six winners made it to the final 30 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the Tour Championship.
Winner’s Stats and Course Overview
Sahith Theegala 2023 (21-under-par)
2023 Lead-in form (T13-T15-MC-MC-MC)
SG: OTT—0.0
SG: APP—+3.3
SG: TTG—+8.3
SG: ATG—+5.0
SG: PUTT—+8.9
- Recent form has been a decent indicator with most recent winners, although Max Homa wasn’t doing anything exceptional prior to his win here last year.
- The mini-break did help him reset and the last six winners of this event have all been players who didn’t play in the season-ending Tour Championship (including Sahith Theegala last year)
- The venue contains four par 5s, three likely to fall in 550-600 yard range for the week, making efficiency from this range important; on a similar note, seven of the par 4s this week measure in at 400-450 yards.
- The field here has averaged two-plus yards more in driving distance than the PGA TOUR average, suggesting this is a good course for players who dominate with the driver. Driving accuracy remains difficult for the entire field, as it typically trends 8-10% lower than the PGA TOUR average.
- Theegala was the first winner in the last six seasons who failed to gain at least 1.6 strokes off the tee. He made up the poor driving on the greens where he gained +8.9 strokes putting for the week. Three of the last five winners have now gained +2.5 or more OTT.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sam Stevens +5000 and $7,800
Comparables:
- Mac Messnier +5000 and $8,000
- Adam Svensson +5000 and $8,400
- Mackenzie Hughes +5000 and $8,100
Neil Shipley +6000 and $7,600
Comparables:
- CT Pan +6500 and $7,700
- Rico Hoey +6000 and $7,700
- Matt Kuchar +6000 and $7,900
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Max Homa ($8,900; best finishes: win-2017 and 2016): A two-time winner of this event from 2021 and 2022. Homa’s a great driver of the ball and loves playing in California, where he’s already racked up four career wins.
2. Chez Reavie ($7,600; best finishes: T3-2020, T13-2017): Reavie has been very consistent at this venue despite being a short hitter. The Arizona State graduate has made the cut at this venue/event in 11 of his last 12 appearances. His best effort remains a T3 finish from 2020.
3. Aaron Baddeley ($6,500; best finishes: T4-2019): Baddeley is a high-end putter who has done well on Poa greens throughout his career. He finished T4 here in 2019 and has made the cut at this event in four of the past five seasons.
4. Patrick Rodgers ($7,300; best finishes: T6-2022, 2015): Rodgers ranks eighth in strokes gained total stats at this event over the last five years. The American has made the cut at Silverado in five of the last six seasons and has gained over a stroke putting on the Poa greens at Silverado in each of those five made cuts.
5. Nick Taylor ($7,600; best finishes: T6-2023, T10-2020): Taylor has had some great results over on the West Coast, including winning the Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in 2020. The Canadian did not play well down the stretch this year but could bounce back on a favorable venue.
Recent Form
1. Wyndham Clark ($10,400; T8-T13): Clark is coming off a nice end-of-season run where he finished T8-T13-T7 in three playoff starts. His strength off the tee should be amplified by the venue this week.
2. Sahith Theegala ($10,600; T3-T48): Theegala won here last season and had a phenomenal end to the regular season, nabbing a 3rd-place finish at the Tour Championship. He’s not been the most consistent player of late but his upside is nearly unmatched in this field.
3. JJ Spaun ($9,000; T3-T9): Spaun has played nice golf all summer. The veteran has now gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in each of his last four starts and has finished top 12 at this venue in two of the last four seasons.
4. Matt Kuchar ($7,900; T12-T3): Kuchar has been in contention during each of his last two starts. The veteran ran out of gas at the Wyndham but has been striking it much better of late.
5. Trace Crowe ($6,900; T7-T24): Crowe isn’t a well-known name but he played well to end the year. The TOUR rookie finished T7-T24 in his final starts and has been gaining on approach and with the putter.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Conners a good starting block
Canadian Corey Conners ($9,800) has a salary under 10k in price this week which makes him an easy starter for cash game lineups. The Canadian is a supreme ball-striker who comes in off a multiple-week break after he failed to advance to the Tour Championship. Despite not getting into the top 30, Conners is on a big run, having not missed a cut on the PGA in over a year now (2023 US Open). It’s hard to argue that he doesn’t supply the best floor/value combo at that price range. Below Conners, Doug Ghim ($8,500) is another player who has been striking it well and comes into the week having gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Further down the board, Neil Shipley ($7,600) also looked like a solid value to consider as he’s proven to be a good cutmaker in his short time on Tour already.
Tournaments (GPPs): Meissner looks ready
Mac Meissner ($8,000) had a solid summer and came close to shipping his first win on multiple occasions. He currently ranks second in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds and has now gained over 2.0 strokes off the tee in two of his last three starts. He’s playing this event for the first time but his recent form and 8k flat price make him a solid upside target this week. Further down, I also don’t hate the idea of backing Justin Suh ($7,100) here as the 27-year-old has made three cuts in a row now and has gained strokes OTT in three straight starts. He gained 7.3 strokes ball-striking here last season.
MY PICK: Min Woo Lee ($9,300)
This year will be the first time Min Woo Lee will tee things up at Silverado, but the 26-year-old is a high-level driver of the ball who should relish the chance to take on this shorter, tree-lined course. Lee wasn’t able to advance past Round 1 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, but he did gain 4.9 strokes off the tee that week in Memphis and still managed a T22 finish, despite losing strokes putting and on approach. While his irons can be hit or miss, we know Lee is a high-level putter and it was just three months ago that he finished T2 at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 2.2 strokes on the Poa greens in Detroit, and another 5.0 strokes around the greens.
You can criticize Lee from an approach perspective, but Silverado has seen other high-level drivers of the ball like Cameron Champ and Max Homa, overcome less-than-stellar performances with their irons. Lee has a very similar skillset in many ways to those two, and other past winners, making him a player I’m high on leading into this week. Add in the fact that he’s still chasing his first PGA win, and he has the President’s Cup on the horizon (an event he’d undoubtedly like to go into with some momentum). He remains affordable on DraftKings at just $9,300 and is a solid betting target at +2200 in the outright market.
MY SLEEPER: Nick Hardy ($6,900)
This setup looks like one that a solid off-the-tee player like Nick Hardy could eventually find some success on. The American comes in striking the ball extremely well having gained +2.7, +1.9, and +1.7 strokes off the tee over his last three starts, and has gained strokes on approach in each of those three starts as well. He’s been a disaster on the greens for most of 2024 but if you look over his career his six best performances with the putter on the PGA have all come on some version of a Poa/Bentgrass green (aka not Bermuda).
Hardy’s hitting the ball well enough to compete and while he’s never found success at this venue, he does profile as the sort of player who should give himself some decent birdie and eagle opportunities on the four par 5s this week. At under $7,000, he’s been making cuts consistently enough (5/6) to use as a core value play, and for betting, his +450 odds for a Top-20 finish stick out as a great target.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
