The NFL season is back for Week 1, and that can only mean one thing. Yes, you guessed it. We are back for another season of weekly player props on DraftKings Sportsbook. 2023 started off hot and tailed off towards the end, but it’s a new year, and the vibes could not be better. I am ready to dive back in, crunch the numbers and find the very best player props to make you some money every weekend. Without further ado, below are my favorite player props for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season.
OVER Picks
WR Brandon Aiyuk Over 54.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Brandon Aiyuk has had quite an interesting offseason, holding out for almost the entirety of training camp until he finally signed a four-year, $120 million extension with the team last Friday. He will have had just one week of practice under his belt by game time on Monday night, but that should be enough for a veteran returning to the same team and offense.
Aiyuk tore up opposing defenses during the regular season in 2023, and hopefully, he can do the same starting in Week 1 against the Jets. New York has a great secondary, finishing as the best passing defense a year ago. However, this 49ers offense is equally as good, with QB Brock Purdy finishing fifth in the league in passing yards last year. This is far from an unrealistic total for Aiyuk to get to, and he recorded at least 55 yards or more in 11 of his 17 games in 2023.
WR Justin Jefferson Over 81.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This seems to be too low of a total for one of the best receivers in the league when healthy. Jefferson had an injury-plagued 2023, but he still played in 10 games and exceeded this total seven times. Over those 10 games, he managed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards and added five touchdowns. To miss seven games and still exceed 1,000 yards is remarkable, and I fully expect him to hit the ground running this season with no further injury limitations. This year, he will have a new quarterback in Sam Darnold. Despite that, I expect head coach Kevin O’Connell to continue to air the ball out and Jefferson will continue to be the focal point.
The Vikings are matched up against a below-average Giants secondary who finished 19th in passing defense last season and have had cornerback concerns all summer long. Jefferson should be in line for a big day, and this line feels a little disrespectful to a player who is arguably the best at his position in the world.
WR Ja’Marr Chase Over 66.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Chase and the Bengals have yet to agree to terms on a new deal, and because of that, he missed most of the summer. However, on Wednesday he returned to practice, an encouraging sign that he will be ready for Sunday. Similar to Aiyuk, Chase is returning to the same team and system even though he missed the entire summer. Both players should be able to hit the ground running after a few practices in familiar surroundings. I think the reason for this total being so low is factoring in all the missed time for Chase this summer, but I think he will be ready to roll and should easily hit the over on this number.
Chase appeared in 16 games last season and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the third straight season since he entered the league. When Burrow did play last year, he hit this total in six of 10 games. In the six games he played without Burrow, he hit the total twice. The Patriots had a decent passing defense last season, finishing 10th in that category, however, without Bill Belichick, it remains to be seen if this secondary can remain at that level. I think Chase and Burrow will show the world that they are all the way back this Sunday.
UNDER Picks
QB Bryce Young Under 205.5 Passing Yds (-115)
You know football is back when I am back to fading Bryce Young. Young struggled mightily as a rookie, throwing for only 2,877 passing yards in 16 games. That averages out to 179.8 passing yards per game, which is well below his total this week. He completed under 60% of his passes and threw 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
The NFL schedule makers were not kind to Young for Week 1 of his sophomore campaign, as he starts with a tough matchup. The Panthers travel to play the Saints, who were a top-10 passing defense a year ago, only allowing 207.3 yards per game through the air. Young struggled in his two games against the Saints last year, throwing for 153 yards in Week 2 and 137 in Week 14. This is easily my favorite under of the week, and unless he has turned a corner this offseason under new coach Dave Canales, I think we will be hitting green on this prop.
RB Ezekiel Elliott Under 33.5 Rush Yds (-120)
Elliott is back with the Cowboys, after coming off a career-low year with the Patriots in 2023. A season ago, he finished with career lows in rushing yards, yards per carry and touchdowns. He’s now back in Dallas and listed as the No. 1 running back on the depth chart. It seems like they will go either by committee or who has the hot hand, but Elliott being listed as the starter does not mean he will get the most touches. The Cowboys have Rico Dowdle and Dalvin Cook in the rotation as well, and with that many mouths to feed it seems unlikely that Elliott will have a big game.
Dallas will be facing a top-10 rushing defense from last year on the road, which will only make this total harder to achieve for him. It will be interesting to see how the running back situation shakes out in Dallas, but as of right now, it’s hard to envision a declining running back hitting the ground running in his ninth season.
RB Tyjae Spears Under 32.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Speaking of crowded running back rooms, we turn our attention to the Tennessee Titans. Will Levis and company have their work cut out for them on opening weekend, as they travel to Chicago and face a Bears team full of excitement and optimism with their new franchise quarterback Caleb Williams. The Titans will look to have a fairly even 50/50 split with their two running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears this season, per offensive coordinator Nick Holz. Pollard is listed as the starter on the depth chart, but as the more experienced player I am going to focus away from him, and at Tyjae Spears.
Spears has a relatively low total, but between the splitting of carries and a tough matchup, I don’t see him reaching this number. The Bears’ defense wasn’t good at much last year, but the one thing they were great at was stopping the run. Chicago finished as the best-rushing defense in the NFL, only allowing 86.4 yards per game on the ground. The Titans may have to lean on their passing attack in this one with second-year quarterback Will Levis.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
