After Week 1’s results, there was a lot of movement in the college football futures market. Some teams rose and some teams fell, but here is a look at the updated picture at DraftKings Sportsbook.
I am going to run through some of the biggest risers in the futures market and give my verdict on whether you should buy or sell these moves.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Miami: +2500 to win the national championship, +180 to win the ACC, Cam Ward to win the Heisman +950
Miami was one of the biggest winners of the opening weekend of college football. After defeating Florida on the road, even more people are buying in on the Miami hype. They are now just 25/1 to win the national title and are outright favorites to win the ACC. Florida State and Clemson were co-favorites to win the ACC before the season started and those teams are now a combined 0-3 to start the year. Cam Ward dazzled in his first game for Miami and now has the fourth-best odds to win the Heisman at DraftKings Sportsbook, despite being as high as 25-1 just a few weeks ago.
Verdict: BUY – I bought the Miami stock before the season started and I think their odds will keep dropping with the ease of their schedule over the next few weeks.
Notre Dame: +1600 to win the national championship
Notre Dame just played arguably its toughest game of the season and certainly its toughest until its season finale against USC. Notre Dame is now -300 to make the College Football Playoff, the fourth-lowest odds of any team in the country. This defense is really good, but Riley Leonard needs to prove that he can compete with the best teams in the country.
Verdict: SELL – The odds on Notre Dame shouldn’t move much over the next few weeks as they are expected to keep winning until their matchup with USC. This team is good but I don’t think they are good enough to beat the cream of the crop and win a national title.
USC: +1600 to win the Big Ten, Miller Moss to win the Heisman +2200
USC put on a display in front of the whole country in its win over LSU on Sunday night. The Trojans were led by QB Miller Moss, who showed he can fill the giant shoes left behind by Caleb Williams. Moss appears to be the next guy in the long list of successful quarterbacks under Lincoln Riley, three of whom won the Heisman Trophy. USC was +2000 to win the Big Ten before Week 1, so it wasn’t a massive movement as it still needs to prove it can win against the top teams in the conference.
Verdict: BUY – Miller Moss is a legitimate Heisman candidate and still has pretty favorable odds compared to other top quarterbacks. USC also has a really manageable Big Ten schedule. If the defense can keep improving, this team can contend for the Big Ten.
Colorado: Shedeur Sanders to win the Heisman +2200, Travis Hunter to win the Heisman +2500
I wrote about my thoughts on this movement after their game last week. Both of these players put up monster numbers in their season opener and will be at the forefront of the national conversation all season. However, there was a similar movement last year when both players had big games in their opener. The duo’s odds then slowly fell off throughout the season.
Verdict: SELL – These are great players but this team just won’t have a good enough record at the end of the season to have players in the Heisman conversation. However, if I had to buy one of the two, it would be Hunter. The voters would be more likely to overlook the bad record when it comes to such a unique talent.
Penn State: +370 to win the Big Ten, Drew Allar to win the Heisman +2800
Penn State had one of the best Week 1 performances in the country, dominating West Virginia on the road. Drew Allar finally looked like the guy that Penn State fans hoped he could be under new OC Andy Kotelnicki. This team doesn’t play another tough game until mid-October, so they should just keep improving before they get to the tougher part of their schedule.
Verdict: BUY – If Allar can be elite at the QB position with this defense, this team is more than capable of winning the Big Ten and Allar is a real dark horse Heisman candidate because this should be a playoff team.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
