The biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year is nigh. There’s a bite in the air. In leagues all across the globe, someone is fired up to grab a twelve-pack of pumpkin beer for the draft. Someone is still scrambling for their team name, and it’s not going to be any good anyways. Someone subscribed to a new draft kit that’s going to win them the league, but we all know it absolutely will not.
And, most germane to this analysis: someone is going to end up drafting from the No. 12 spot. I’m on record in my Fantasy football draft strategy: How to draft at the turn column saying folks saddled with the 12-slot should be thrilled. I’ve gone ahead and done a mock draft to show you why.
To be clear, we’re approaching this mock draft in the following format: 12-team PPR scoring. So the twelfth spot, here, would be the last slot. It also represents what a lot of us call “the turn” (as mentioned above), because the last pick in a snake draft order gets first pick in the very next round.
I covered some higher-level strategies for the 12-slot in my How to draft at the turn column. Feel free to consult that for some general advice on strategy, approach, and positional targets.
Consider this piece, however, my doubling down all I said within the above. Including the following:
There are, indeed, championships to be had from this draft slot.
And we’ll use this mock draft to build our championship-caliber roster.
Round 1, Pick 12: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Higher-order strategy be damned; if Wilson falls to me at 12 (and he almost always does), I’m taking him and clicking my heels as I do so. You could make the case for Jahmyr Gibbs here, given my next pick (more below). But Wilson’s the guy. I’m sure of it.
This should come as no surprise to anyone who’s been following my draft strategy columns. It feels almost outlandish to say that getting anyone in a fantasy draft at 12 overall is getting them at a value. And yet.
You may have read my Fantasy football strategies: Drafting value wide receivers piece. Within, I wax poetic about Wilson’s 2023 advanced receiving metrics:
It would come as little surprise to many of us if Wilson’s air yard stats last year were unimpressive, what with the disastrous and dizzying quarterback carousel in New York. And yet, despite all the dysfunction, he still finished the 2023 season as the tenth-best wide receiver when it comes to air yards, with a total of 1,716.
All this suggests that even with a replacement-level quarterback, Wilson last year would have been significantly more productive than his WR26 finish. Wilson’s RecYOE figure at that ranking is a staggering -136 (eighth-worst in the NFL). This means he was expected to end the year with 136 more receiving yards than he actually did. All this during a year when he somehow still managed to clear the 1,000-yard mark.
Wilson salvaged last season despite a paltry 2.5 average Sep. figure, which tells us a lot about how defenses were playing him. Clearly they were shading coverage his way, closing throwing windows, because a talent like Wilson likely generates more than an average of 2.5 yards of separation on his defenders when the offense is clicking.
Need I say more? Take him with confidence.
Round 2, Pick 1: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
It does bludgeon my soul, in terms of a set strategic approach, to go WR/RB at the first turn. But, in this case, the bludgeoning is only on principle. When you divorce the principle from this equation, though, drafting Kyren Williams is an easy choice. Because by going Wilson/Williams here at 12th/13th overall, we might have set ourselves up with both a hero WR and a hero RB.
Hero RBs require opportunity, right? How’s this: Kyren Williams cleared a 70% snap share in all but two games in 2023. He did miss four games, but I believe the injury-prone-related Williams ADP fade we’re hearing so much about is overplayed and tired.
I wrote about Williams operating in a workhorse role for Sean McVay in my NFL Best Bets: Los Angeles Rams Predictions on DraftKings Sportsbook column:
We’ll see a Stafford-and-Kyren-helmed offensive attack like that of Week 11 and on in 2023: Stafford then threw 15 TDs to only three interceptions, and Williams had six rushing TDs, and two through the air.
Let’s also not overreact to Kyren Williams’s injury history. He did fine as a feature back in McVay’s offense. That is, if you consider 1,350 total scrimmage yards and 15 TDs in only 12 games to be fine, which I very much do.
Read: it’s more than fine. Don’t overthink it. News just broke the Williams will be the Rams punt returner, but that’s smoke and mirrors. He’s the alpha in this backfield, and we know how much Matt Stafford relies on his alphas. As far as Williams’s passing game role goes, you can project him at around 48 receptions and about 320 receiving yards.
And, if you’re so worried about Blake Corum’s shadow dogging and darkening Kyren’s 2024 potential, draft Corum in Round 8 (see below). It won’t be a 50/50 split, so it’s more of an insurance play.
We’re all in on Kyren “The Guyren” Williams this season.
Round 3, Pick 12: Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Before we get into my pick, I want to first list some other receivers that were available to me here over whom I personally chose Kupp. You might have chosen, instead, one of: Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, or Brandon Aiyuk, for example.
They were all on my radar, and they’re fine choices. But 2021’s NFL triple crown winner is my value buy, here.
Kupp has had a battery of lower-body injuries and procedures since his record-breaking 2021 season, which affected his advanced receiving metrics last year. His separation scores were uncharacteristically low for a route-runner of Kupp’s excellence.
And so, now that he’s healthy, folks are buying into a resurgent full season for Kupp. So, too, are we.
He’s 32 now, so Kupp’s best years are likely behind him. But his face will one day be chiseled out upon the Mount Rushmore of best NFL route-runners. His pedigree in that regard, combined with his 55.3% slot snap share rate in 2023, have Kupp poised to be a safety valve for Stafford. Stafford’s trust in Kupp on third down and in the red zone make him, quite possibly, the safest WR2 on the entire board.
I simply think the Rams offense is going to keep clicking like it did in the final eight weeks of the season. That dynamic looked awfully similar to the Rams offense in 2021, and we all know how that went.
This being the case, I’m confident Kupp will return WR1 value as long as he’s healthy.
Round 4, Pick 1: Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
If you want to wait for a quarterback, fine. But you better be targeting Jayden Daniels around the eighth round, or otherwise waiting on Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, or Brock Purdy in the late rounds.
I like Hurts here because I do think he exists in a category of his own in the quarterback slot. And, while I think we will see a bit of a different Eagles offense under former-Chargers OC Kellen Moore, I don’t think the goal-line shove is going away. Which is, after all, the keystone to both Hurt’s season-long and DFS values.
Just remember, some things can be easy in your draft. Hurts is a fine chalk quarterback in Round 4. In 2023, he ranked, among quarterbacks: first overall in carries, first overall in red zone carries, third overall in rushing yards, and first overall in rushing TDs.
Throw that on top of a motivated Hurts who’s happier with the play-calling situation in Philadelphia. Mix in the returning-and-well-paid duo of elite receivers. Sprinkle a little Saquon Barkley on top of it all.
Now you’ve got yourself a quarterback in a tier of his own.
Round 5, Pick 12: James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
I did not think I’d be saying this in 2024, but I believe James Conner might win folks some fantasy drafts at his current ADP. Getting him here could prove critically important to your roster construction, no matter what draft strategy you employ.
Citing injury as a reason to fade Conner this far is simply silly: last season, he played in at least 13 games for the fourth straight season. That’s comfortably consistent.
Trey Benson has flashed in the preseason, but I think that’s going to be more of a future concern. Conner averaged a 62% snap share last season, and I don’t see Benson moving the needle on that number. I certainly don’t foresee Conner losing feature-back, high-value touches to Benson.
Last season, Conner finished as the RB13. How is it that he’s being drafted outside the top-25 running backs in 2024? It can’t be age. 29 years old is getting up there for a halfback, but it’s by no means a guarantee of a plummet in production.
By all projection models, the Cardinals’s passing offense in 2024 is going to lap its production from last season. This should hopefully open up more opportunities in the run game for Conner, who will also see his fair share of targets. Project him for around 36 receptions and in the ballpark of 250 receiving yards.
He’ll finish well inside the top-24 RBs this year. He’s the cheapest sure-thing RB2 on the board this late.
Round 6, Pick 1: Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
If I were to have tried to get a tight end at this turn, it would’ve been between Evan Engram, George Kittle, and Dalton Kincaid. I didn’t want any of them. However, I see the argument for Kincaid, what with his obvious rapport with a suddenly-receiverless Josh Allen.
I tend to like a high-floor pick for my flex, and I’m willing to take a chance that Dell will provide returns in kind at this ADP.
Stroud targeted Dell 75 times in 2023, accounting for just 14% of the team’s total target distribution. But those figures are skewed by the time Dell missed last season due to injury. And, unfortunately, he’s not exactly out of the infirm woods yet. Dell is presumably still recovering from both last season’s broken leg and the gunshot wound he suffered earlier this year.
Still, I still like his chances to make a huge impact in this offense, especially if he stays healthy. Gone are Robert Woods and Noah Brown, and it’s likely Stefon Diggs will vacuum up a lot of their target share. It accounted for 131 in 2023.
When he was firing on all cylinders, Dell was averaging 15 points per game. If he can whatsoever maintain that—he will—he’s worth this price.
Round 7, Pick 12: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Now that the best-of-the-best and the borderline TE1s are off the board, I’m holding out until my late(r)-round TE target (see below) and filling out my bench.
Odunze’s over-the-top prolific career (especially 2023) at the University of Washington should speak for itself. As should his situation, what with Caleb Williams commanding the offense, and a revitalized Bears team looking to hang huge numbers on their opponents.
The ceiling is stratospherically high, here. Odunze’s build grades similarly to Ja’Marr Chase’s. He’s 6’3″, 212 pounds—so we know he’s physical at the line and at the point of a catch. He grades in the 94th percentile in speed score for all rookies and 97th for catch radius. Still, with all that size and speed, Odunze cleared the 86th percentile for his agility score.
The upside is just too good. It also could just flat out be a ton of fun. I’m more than happy with Odunze as my WR4.
Round 8, Pick 1: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
This is precisely where you’d need to jump on Blake Corum if you want insurance for drafting Kyren in the second round. He won’t last past this turn. Get him here if you want the insurance policy; I did so in some leagues.
For this mock, however, I am opting for an upside play in Spears. This choice is all about a vacated running back room with Derrick Henry gone, and a Titans offense that could improve under second-year signal-caller Will Levis.
Last season, Spears commanded a 26.3% target share (!) and converted it into 385 receiving yards. Only one other running back ran 250+ routes with a higher target share in 2023: Breece Hall.
Round 9, Pick 12: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sure seems we’re all ready to fade Freiermuth all the way, aren’t we? After an injury-riddled 2023 during which he finished with a unbelievably paltry target total of—get this—47, fantasy managers seem to have given up on Freiermuth altogether.
Tight ends are fickle, but this price is just too darn good. He’s going to be healthier this year than last. His quarterback play will probably be right around as good as it was in 2022, when he had 98 targets and garnered a target share of well over 20%.
It was in 2022 when Freiermuth finished as the TE12. I got him here as the TE16. That’s a fair price. A fine price, even.
Round 10, Pick 1: Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
If I weren’t so bullish on Conner, I’d sy getting Hollywood Brown in the tenth would be the quintessence to a winning strategy from the 12-slot in 2024.
What do you know? I also wrote about Hollywood Brown in my Fantasy football strategies: Drafting value wide receivers column:
Hollywood Brown, despite missing time with injury last year, finished third-worst overall among wide receivers in RecYOE, with a figure of -192. Granted, he still did command an impressive 23.5% target share in his woebegone 2023 Cardinals offense, so the inflated RecYOE stat might be a result of forced volume.
But—we love that, right? Brown had a frustrating and not-altogether-healthy year, bad quarterback play, still commanded a healthy target share, and managed to be a decent fantasy producer.
Brown had a paltry separation rate of 2.5, just like Garrett Wilson. So, again, we can deduce that bad quarterback play led to tighter coverage on brown, smaller windows for him to catch the ball, and thus a down season in terms of actual production.
Don’t let the Xavier Worthy hype shy you away from Hollywood. And don’t worry about him missing a game or two to begin the season.
He’ll be fine, and he’s going to blow up in this offense.
The rest of my bench
Here’s how I filled out the rest of my bench with skill players, listed in the order I drafted them.
And, as far as defenses and kickers go: I’m almost always waiting until the sixteenth round to get the Colts D (I have high hopes for that unit), and target Brandon Aubrey as my kicker.
- Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (also covered in my value wide receivers article!)
- Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills (Cook’s clear backup.)
- Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Next flagship WR in Tampa, I’m thinking.)
- Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (Let’s give this one last try, one last year, shall we?)
And there is your 2024 championship-caliber roster, curated from the 12-slot. An absolute bastion of excellence. It’s better, truly, than the fantasy team I care about most (s/o League of Ordinary Dirtbags!).
Happy drafting! And be sure to check out some futures bets for all of these players on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
