So, yes—not only am I a fan of the LA Chargers, which I mentioned in the NFL Best Bets: Los Angeles Chargers Predictions on DraftKings Sportsbook piece you can find on DraftKings Network, but I’m also a fan of the LA Rams. Maybe I’m just a fan of all SoFi Stadium inhabitants? Who knows!
Really, though, it’s all about Matthew Stafford this year (and, really, every year, am I right? What an animal.). And I think, if we take a closer look at Stafford’s 2023 as a tale of two seasons, we’ll be able to evaluate this offense with a lot more objectivity than their still-great 10-7 record suggested.
Let’s take a look at two Rams futures on DraftKings Sportsbook about which I think folks should be stoked.
LA Rams Over 8.5 total wins (-160)
I know the juice isn’t great, but I’m advocating for it because the Rams winning nine or more games seems to be a foregone conclusion. Because, first, let’s level-set: the Rams won ten games in 2023. The biggest personnel loss they suffered is a generational one, in that Aaron Donald isn’t anchoring their defensive front seven.
The Rams were below-average in total defensive DVOA last year, ranking 22nd in the league. And that’s with Donald. But the difference between the Rams’s defensive DVOA (3.4%) and the 28th-ranking team in defensive DVOA, the Green Bay Packers (8.2%), is marginal at best. This young defensive unit, with a few veteran additions, might have gained enough momentum in 2023 to offset the effect of Donald on their 2024 win total.
So, let’s ignore the Rams defense, as I think it’s a moot point for this future. Indeed, my love for this bet has everything to do with the offense that started to fire on all cylinders in Week 11 in 2023, regardless of schedule.
Other than Matthew Stafford, the Rams offense is a hydra with three heads: Puka Nacua as the X receiver, Cooper Kupp as the super-utility receiver, and Kyren Williams as an effective pass-catcher from the backfield. Tyler Higbee is still in the mix, but he’s oft-injured and aging. He’ll move the sticks for Stafford and the Rams every now and again, but his best years are behind him. Tutu Atwell will get his next-man-up opportunities, too.
But, to be honest, I think my faith in this bet has everything to do with my exasperation with the Kyren Williams fade in the preseason. The loudest and most discordant narrative has been that Kyren Williams has trouble staying healthy. People reference 2023 as if he missed half the season when they say this. Folks—he only missed four games. That’s pretty standard for a high-volume offensive skill-player throughout an 18-game season, these days.
We’re much more likely to see a Stafford-and-Kyren-led offense that resembles that of Week 11 and on in 2023: Stafford then threw 15 TDs to only three interceptions, and Williams had six rushing TDs and two through the air.
Let’s also not overreact to Kyren Williams’s injury history. He did fine as a feature back in McVay’s offense. That is, if you consider 1,350 total scrimmage yards and 15 TDs in only 12 games to be fine, which I very much do.
Key here, still, obviously, is health. We’re in an okay spot for that, currently. Stafford is always going to be a bit banged up, but he’s healthy. Cooper Kupp is as healthy as he’s been since 2021. Puka Nacua is working through some knee soreness in training camp, but, as of today, he’s practicing again. Nothing to be concerned about re. Kyren.
Even if the Rams front-load most of the nine wins needed to clear this bet while their core is healthy, fine! We just need them clear 8.5.
And they will. The Rams are T12 for the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. They’re going to win ten games, maybe eleven, at the least.
8.5 wins feels too meaty not to snag.
Matthew Stafford Over 3,900.5 passing yards (-115)
Given Stafford is such a pocket passer, and given how often Sean McVay designs boots to get Stafford in space to throw the ball, I think this is fantastic value. We essentially need Stafford to throw for 4,000 yards to clear this bet, and I think he can do it.
Consider how unlucky Stafford was in the first half of the 2023 season: he only threw nine touchdowns in nine games. That’s virtually unheard of for a quarterback of his caliber executing plays under a play-caller of McVay’s caliber. And yet, during that same span, he still threw for 2,260 yards. He finished the year with 3,965 yards, which would’ve cleared this bet. This included contests when he threw for unheard-of game totals for Stafford: 162 yards, 190 yards, 222 yards, etc.
We talked about health above, and most important to this number, probably, is the health of Cooper Kupp. Rejoice! He’s as healthy as he’s been since his triple crown season.
The Rams offense in its current-gen state had a down year last year, and Stafford still cleared this number. Just as they’re going to blow by their wins total, Stafford and the Rams are going to generate enough offense through the air to pass the 4,000-yard threshold.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
