Full disclosure: I’m a not-so-small Chargers fan. As in, perhaps I once moved novels by Dostoevsky and Marilynne Robinson off a wall shelf to put a shadowbox of a Justin Herbert Funko Pop!, which still remains there while the books gather dust under the eaves. As in, it’s entirely possible that I have a Ladd McConkey jersey—already. Perhaps it’s the case, also, that my go-to ugly sweater is a Chargers one with blinking Christmas lights outlining their bolt logo.
The love is as big as the annual disappointment. But! I’m trying a new tactic with the Bolts this year: I have zero expectations. Maybe I’ve just taken off the rose-colored lenses that were airmailed to me, coast-to-coast, by Justin Herbert’s jetplane of an arm.
Now I see the team for who they, in all likelihood, are in 2024: an underperforming defense with aging (not-so-)superstars, and an offense recovering from years of identity crisis. Despite having had their franchise quarterback locked down for years, but alas. I digress.
So, if you’re a Chargers fan like me, let’s toss considering them as even a dark horse contender to the wind, shall we? Once we do that, we’ll reach a state of objective nirvana. Say it with me like a mantra: the Chargers are going to stink.
Currently, on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are getting -155 odds to go over their projected win total of 8.5, and +4500 odds to win the Super Bowl. Neither are bets I like because, again: the Chargers are going to stink.
It’s from this (somewhat) unbiased vantage that we’ll evaluate some of the juicier season-long bets for this team on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Drive for Week 5: LA Chargers 2 wins (+170)
The new Drive for Week 5 futures bet format is almost as fun as the Chargers’s 2024 schedule release. You have the option to bet on a team’s exact number of wins after five games played in 2024. Not as grueling to wait for as a season-long futures bet, and not as urgent as betting on the outcome of an individual game.
When it comes to the Chargers’s options, the clear favorite for their win total is two at +170 odds, and I actually think there’s value here.
Los Angeles’s first five games are as follows:
- Week 1: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 2: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 3: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 4: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 5: at Denver Broncos
Despite my general malaise with regards to the Chargers’s ability to win, there is indeed a lot of energy in their camp. New HC Jim Harbaugh overhauled most of the entire coaching staff, they’ve got a few exciting rookies in Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey, and made some key offseason additions like J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards that signal a commitment to offensive identity on the ground.
We can project an improvement to the offensive line’s effectiveness. But getting a line to gel, especially with a rookie tackle, can take time. Which is why, I think, despite a schedule that looks fairly light in the first five weeks, we might see the same old Chargers.
The unit up front will immediately get tested by Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’s vicious pass rush, which has given the Chargers fits in the past. The Raiders are no sure thing themselves, but with Crosby as generally berserk and knowledgable as he is of his inter-division opponent, I give them the advantage here. Unless the Chargers line is lathered up and clicking in a rhythmic, controlled, balanced offensive approach, the Raiders front seven will overwhelm, and they’ll and take the win.
I think the Chargers will probably take one of their two wins in Carolina, and the other in either Pittsburgh or Denver. Probably Pittsburgh. The Chiefs are an auto-loss. And, re. Denver, I think Bo Nix might be energizing a sneaky-good roster that could have enough momentum by Week 5 to suffocate Herbert and the Chargers at Mile High Stadium.
As far as projecting they get both their wins on the road: we all know SoFi Stadium never serves as a true home field for either the Rams or the Chargers. Especially when nearby divisional teams like the Raiders and the Chiefs come to town.
The Chargers were also a more efficient offense on the road last year: they completed 65.4% of their passes, gained an average of 5.3 yards per play rushing, and had an adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.1. Compare that to the same stats, respectively, at home: 64.1%/4.8/6.1. Home/away splits for this team are, simply, fairly even.
This was a five-win team in 2023, with a potentially-hobbled Justin Herbert coming in to lead a barebones corps of receivers in an offense that wants to use the first five games this season to get their offensive line in sync for late-2024 and beyond. They will win two games, no more, in their first five.
Most receiving yards by a rookie: Ladd McConkey (+1000)
We’re ready, Ladd. So ready, in fact, that this bet seems like a serious value to me. McConkey is the new-and-potentially-better Hunter Renfrow, with a better quarterback throwing him the ball, and a better offensive line buying his quarterback time.
All we’ve heard all offseason is how McConkey is an automatic early contender for 100+ receptions. So how do we not get in on these 10/1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook?
Health is a definite concern; he’s apparently fine now, but McConkey suffered a lower-body injury during training camp that kept him out of practice for a bit. He battled through a knee injury and caught a bad case of turf-toe in 2022, and missed five games last year with both back and ankle injuries. We don’t like that his historically-bruised lower body is already feeling NFL wear and tear.
But, including the four receivers favored more than him (Marvin Harrison, Jr., Malik Nabers, Keon Coleman, and Xavier Worthy), McConkey is the only of the five who will routinely line up in the slot. And we’ve all seen the viral clip of Tom Brady talking about football theory, specifically re. keeping your offensive skill players happy. He says it’s far easier to get the ball to guys inside the numbers (like Edelman and McConkey) than outside (like Harrison, Jr, Nabers, et. al).
When it comes to simplicity and efficiency with regards to a quarterback delivering a rookie the ball such that he could rack up receptions, Herbert’s dynamic with McConkey takes the clear advantage, here.
And, honestly—who else is Herbo going to throw to in high-leverage, short-to-medium yardage situations? CVS-brand Mike Williams (read: Joshua Palmer)? No. It’ll be McConkey, who was a good, reliable Ladd and averaged just under an 80% catch rate in his career at Georgia.
The juice here is good. Get in on it.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
