College football is finally here. There may only be four games, but there is still a lot to dive into for Saturday’s Week Zero slate.
CFB Week Zero Odds and Best Bets
College football returns on Saturday with a four-game slate. The schedule is highlighted by an ACC matchup between Florida State and Georgia Tech, but some electric offenses like Hawaii and SMU will be on display later in the day as well. There are some great storylines to follow and things that are important to monitor as these teams start their 2024 campaigns. Below, I laid out my best bet and preview each of the four games on the slate.
Florida State (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech (Dublin, Ireland) o/u 55.5
Florida State is entering this season highly motivated after their perceived playoff snub last season. Of course, under the new CFP rules, Florida State would have been a top-four seed as ACC champions last season, but they are undoubtedly hungry to prove themselves this season. That being said, this is a bit of a new-look Florida State team. Last year’s QB Jordan Travis is off to the NFL and former Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei has transferred in and won the starting job.
Along with Uiagalelei, Florida State brought in wide receivers Malik Benson and Jalen Brown from Alabama and LSU, respectively. They need those transfers to hit as they lost their star wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson to the NFL, as well. It wasn’t just on the offensive side of the ball that FSU had a lot of turnover. Star EDGE Jared Verse left for the NFL along with multiple other defensive starters. However, they also brought in a highly-touted EDGE transfer from Georgia, Marvin Jones Jr.
Expect this Florida State team to be much more focused on the run game this season compared to the pass-happy 2023 team. DJ Uiagalelei has been questionable throwing the football during his career but is a great power runner and should complement transfer RB Roydell Williams well.
On the Georgia Tech side, there is a lot of continuity. Brent Key has done a great job building this program back up over the past couple of seasons. They really started to click at the end of last season, due in large part to QB Haynes King finally grasping the offense. This team returns 15 starters from last year’s team, including key positions like QB Haynes King, RB Jamal Haynes and multiple offensive linemen.
Both of these teams should be relatively cautious at the start of this game. Florida State is breaking in a lot of new players and will want to ease them into the game. On the other side, Georgia Tech thinks they can compete with FSU and won’t want to make any mistakes early on in the game. Both of these teams should have really proficient run games so expect both teams to go really run-heavy, especially to start this game.
The location of this game is also a big factor to consider— you have to keep in mind there could be some jetlag issues for these players. Between the travel, the uncertainty of the FSU personnel and the run-heavy approach expected, the under is how I’m looking to attack this game.
Best Bets: 1H U 28 (-120), U 55.5 (-110)
Montana State (-13.5) @ New Mexico o/u 54.5
This matchup might not seem too exciting to the average fan but this is actually a historical, record-breaking matchup. Montana State is going to close as the biggest-ever FCS favorite over an FBS opponent. In 2013, Georgia State was a 10.5-point underdog to Jacksonville State, but that was also Georgia State’s first season at the FBS level so they still had a roster of FCS-level players. New Mexico is in a major rebuild under new Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall, but being a 13.5-point underdog at home against an FCS team is wild.
Montana State is ranked #4 in the preseason FCS coaches poll so they are elite on the FCS level. They used two quarterbacks in 2023, but it is Tommy Mellott who led the team in the postseason last season and is returning as the starting QB for the 2024 season. One key piece of news is that Montana State will be without its starting running back Julius Davis.
New Mexico’s roster is in total disarray. Bronco Mendenhall has been handed a completely decimated program and is being given the reigns to build it from the ground up. That means that New Mexico will be in no rush to start winning games right away. Dual-threat QB Devon Dampier will be at the helm of the New Mexico offense and has the potential to be a really solid player at this level. However, defensively they are a total disaster.
The Lobos ranked 126th out of 133 FBS teams in scoring defense last season. Mendenhall prioritized that side of the ball in the transfer portal by securing a couple of solid players including CB Noah Avinger from San Diego State and DL Devin Brandt from Old Dominion. Menedenhall’s coaching should immediately improve this defense from where it was last season, but they still don’t have the personnel to make too big of a jump.
This is another game where I will be betting on the under. Montana State’s offense could struggle a bit without RB Julius Davis, plus Mendenhall should be able to scheme against what Tommy Mellott can do through the air. Montana State also has a stout defense and returns a lot of production on that side of the ball. Montana State should win this game but it could be a bit of an ugly watch.
Best Bet: U 54.5 (-110)
SMU (-25.5) @ Nevada o/u 55.5
SMU is making the jump from the AAC to the ACC this season. Rhett Lashlee has turned this team into an offensive powerhouse and they will look to put that on display in their first game as a member of the ACC. Star quarterback Preston Stone returns for SMU, however, Lashlee has stated that there is still an open competition with redshirt freshman QB Kevin Jennings and that both players are expected to play in this game.
Nevada QB Brendon Lewis was largely unimpressive when in action last season and Nevada is breaking in a new head coach, Jeff Choate. Nevada ranked 114th in the nation in scoring defense and 118th in total defense last season. Choate will look to turn that around, but this is a really tough first test for the new-look Wolfpack.
There are a lot of question marks in this game but one thing I am confident in is that SMU will put up a lot of points. The QB battle actually makes me even more confident in that fact. Under different circumstances, SMU might take its foot off the gas after taking a big lead. However, Rhett Lashlee wants to see what both quarterbacks can do so he should have a pass-heavy approach throughout the game. Both QBs will also want to prove themselves by making big throws and putting up points when they are on the field. For that reason, I am betting the over on the SMU team total.
Best Bet: SMU Total O 41.5 (-115)
Delaware State @ Hawaii (-40) o/u 56.5
It just feels right that the opening day of the college football season will end with a midnight EST kickoff in Honolulu. Hawaii’s offense has been revived with their legendary former QB Timmy Chang as their new head coach. Brayden Schager returns to lead this team at QB again and Hawaii hopes to really compete in the Mountain West this season.
Delaware State, on the other hand, is one of the worst FCS teams in the nation. The Hornets went 1-10 last season with their only win coming against a Division III school, Virginia University of Lynchburg. Delaware State also dealt with travel issues trying to get to Hawaii and arrived a day later than they were hoping, so jetlag could be a major issue for this team.
Hawaii will largely be able to name the score in this game. Delaware State will struggle to score and will have an even harder time getting stops. However, the key to this game is who Hawaii faces next week. Next Saturday, Hawaii will take on UCLA and Timmy Chang thinks they have a real chance to pull off the upset against the Bruins. Therefore, expect Chang to call a relaxed game and emphasize keeping his players healthy.
Hawaii should jump out to a huge first-half lead and then just take the air out of the ball in the second half. That is why I am betting on the second half under in this game.
Best Bet: 2H u24.5 (-120)
Enjoy the opening day of the college football season! I will be back with previews for every major conference and my Week One preview next week.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
