There have been major changes in college football heading into this season. Most notably, the College Football Playoff has expanded from four to 12 teams. Here is how the new system affects the futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The 12-Team Playoff
It was a huge change to the college football world in 2014 when the postseason transitioned from the BCS National Championship Game to the four-team playoff system chosen by a committee. After a decade of that format, the playoff has been expanded to 12 teams. Here is a quick breakdown of how that will work for those who haven’t been following the offseason news.
The four major conference champions (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) will receive the top four seeds and a first-round bye in the playoff. The playoff committee will determine the other eight spots in the bracket, with one spot guaranteed to the top-ranked Group of Five team. The first round of games will be hosted at the home stadium of the better-seeded team. The following rounds will be hosted at famous bowl venues like the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl.
This expanded playoff has greatly shifted the futures market in college football in several ways. The most obvious reason is that three times as many teams will now make the playoff. That opens the door for some long shots to have a better chance but also gives you some coverage if you want to bet on one of the favorites like Georgia or Ohio State.
For example, last season, Georgia was arguably the best team in the country, but it lost an incredibly tight SEC Championship Game against Alabama and was left out of the playoff. Florida State was an undefeated conference champion and was also left out. So, we didn’t even get to see two of the best teams in the country fight for the National Championship. That will no longer be a worry with this 12-team format.
Another way the expanded playoff affects the futures market is through the “To Make the Playoff” market. This market has always existed, but it has become much more intriguing with so many more slots available. In the past, it was assumed the playoff spots would just go to four of the five Power 5 conference champions, with maybe two SEC teams or two Big Ten teams getting in once in a while. Now there will likely be three or four teams from the SEC and Big Ten, maybe two SEC or Big 12 teams, and a Group of Five team.
So, for example, if you think that Georgia is head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC and will win the conference, there is still a great chance for other SEC teams to make the playoff. Currently, at DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas is -230 to make the playoff, Ole Miss is -130, and Alabama is -110. With the difficulty of the SEC schedule, a team like Ole Miss could win ten games, miss out on the conference championship game, and still easily make the College Football Playoff. So, in the past, if you wanted to bet on their upside, you would have to bet longer odds on them winning the SEC. You can bet on their upside to be a postseason team at just -130.
Depth is very important when considering which teams to bet on to make the playoff or win the National Championship. Depth will be more important than ever in 2024. In the past, teams had around a month to rest up and get healthy before the playoff and only needed to win two games to win the National Championship. Now, the first round of playoff games will be just two weeks after Conference Championship weekend. Then, teams will have to win three or four games to win the National Championship, so they will inevitably get banged up again during the postseason. That makes teams that can go two-deep across their roster even more valuable.
Be on the lookout for my upcoming conference previews, where I will give away some of my favorite “To Make the Playoff” bets.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
