The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The PGA TOUR has just two events left on its regular season schedule and, for some golfers, these events will be huge starts depending on where they sit in the FedEx Cup rankings. Only the top 70 players at the end of the regular season (Wyndham in two weeks) will have full eligibility for next season and access to the elevated events in 2025. Anyone outside of that will have to play in the Fall series and see if they can move up or maintain their standing to get into the top 125 when all is said and done.
The field this week has plenty of solid players sitting just on the top 70 bubble as well, with names like Lee Hodges, Keith Mitchell, and Adam Svensson all currently outside the top 70. Leading the field this week in terms of OWGR is Sahith Theegala (11th) and he’s followed closely by 2022 3M Open winner Tony Finau (19th). Both players missed the cut last week but are the only top 20 players in the field. Aaron Rai (47th OWGR) was the biggest name to have withdrawn as of writing.
The cut this week goes back to its regular occurrence of top 65 and ties after Friday.
The Course
TPC Twin Cities—Minneapolis, Minnesota
Par 71, 7,431; Greens: Bentgrass
TPC Twin Cities was designed in 2000 by Arnold Palmer and redesigned by Tom Lehman in 2018. On top of hosting the 3M Open in 2019 and 2020, this venue also hosted a PGA TOUR Champions event between 2001-2018.
Twin Cities was redesigned to accommodate its new spot on the PGA TOUR rotation in 2018 and now plays as a Par 71 but at well over 7,400 yards. The venue was one of the easier stops on the Champions Tour and has continued to cede a lot of birdies to the PGA pros; despite this venue also being one of the leaders in water balls every season.
Water is a massive feature of TPC Twin Cities and comes into play on nearly every hole. However, while the water does bring in a variable element the rest of the course is relatively straightforward. The parkland course is very flat and offers big fairways and larger-than-average greens. Additionally, while there are a lot of fairway bunkers strewn around the course, most don’t come into play for the pros due to their somewhat inefficient placement. That means that players who can avoid the trouble off the tee generally can be very aggressive on approaches, especially since the course features well-manicured bentgrass fairways that will almost always produce a great lie.
We typically see GIR%’s and Driving Accuracy numbers here that are well above average so even with the water lurking, this event often turns into an iron-and-putting contest. It’s no shock that aggressive iron players like Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, and last year’s winner Lee Hodges have all gone low at this course, or that four of the first five winners at TPC Twin Cities have gained over 7.0 strokes on approach for the week.
The greens and fairways are pure bentgrass and can get a little firm, but around the green, the play has meant little at Twin Cities, with winners gaining most of their strokes on approach and putting. As far as course correlations go, TPC Scottsdale looks like a solid comparable, and it’s worth noting players like Alex Noren, Tony Finau, and Louis Oosthuizen have all landed top-six finishes at both venues over the last five seasons. Additionally, there is a decent link with the Glen Club, a course that hosts the NV5 Invitational event on the Korn Ferry Tour and is also built around houses and man-made water traps.
For stats, there is little doubt that players who have showcased big upside with their irons of late should be keyed in on at this venue. While we have had several longshot winners most of them (Hodges, Champ, Thompson, and Wolff) had shown some kind of upside with their approach game, in a recent start, before their win.
2024 weather: Thunderstorms and higher winds can occasionally affect this event, but the weather this season looks decent. Highs will be in the 85-90F range with winds on the first two days expected to stay relatively mild. Friday does have some gusts projected to be above 10mph and the potential for a small wave split does exist, with Friday afternoon likely being the wave to fade. Saturday looks like it will be the toughest day with gusts approaching 15mph. There is some early week rain in the forecast which could also soften up this course for Thursday and I expect scoring to gradually get tougher as the event wears on. Look for some low scores on the first two days but for conditions to favor the best tee to green players, more and more, as the week wears on.
Last 5 winners
2023—Lee Hodges -24 (over multiple players -17)
**other notables JT Poston (T2), Tony Finau (T7), Cam Davis (T10
2022—Tony Finau -17 (over multiple players -14)
**other notables include Sungjae Im T2, Greyson Sigg T7
2021—Cameron Champ -15 (over Louis Oosthuizen -13)
**other notables include Adam Hadwin T6 and Maverick McNealy T16
2020—Michael Thompson 19-under (over Adam Long -17)
**other notables include Tony Finau and Emiliano Grillo T3
2019—Matthew Wolff 21-under-par (over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa -20)
**other notables include Adam Hadwin and Wyndham Clark T5
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Lee Hodges (2023 – 24-under-par)
2023 lead-in form (MC – T12 – MC – MC – T25)
SG: OTT — +1.8SG:
APP — +9.4
SG: TTG — +12.4
SG: ATG — +1.2
SG: PUTT — +6.2
Pure driving distance has proven to be helpful for two of the first three winners at TPC Twin Cities (with Wolff and Champ being two of the longest hitters in the field), and it is a driver-heavy course, with the average driving distance being much higher than the average PGA TOUR stop.
This week is very much about good iron play and putting since the greens and fairways tend to be easy to hit. In 2020, the top 11 finishers all gained strokes on approach for the week, while six of the top eight finishers gained +2.5 strokes or more with their irons.
Hodges wasn’t as dominant as some past winners off the tee but he destroyed this course with his irons and gave himself plenty of birdies chances, which he converted on for a 7-shot win
With high GIR and fairway stats, around-the-green play hasn’t been very important to past winners. Champ actually lost strokes around the green while winning in 2021, and none of the players who finished in the top 10 of the event that year were inside the top 10 in ATG stats.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Maverick McNealy +4000 and $8,300
Comparables:
Austin Eckroat +5000 and $7,200
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Tony Finau ($10,600; win – 2022, 3rd -2020): Finau has eaten up easy courses over the last few seasons and Twin Cities has been at the top of his hit list. He won going away after shooting 10-under on the weekend in 2022 and finished T7 in 2023.
2. Emiliano Grillo ($8,500; T2 – 2022, T3 – 2020): The Argentine likes this setup, having twice finished inside the top five at Twin Cities. He’s been making more cuts as of late and has a sharp approach game that plays well on this course.
3. Brice Garnett ($6,500; T16 – 2021): Garnett has been very consistent at this venue for whatever reason. The veteran has made the cut at Twin Cities in each of the past five seasons and ranks 8th in SG: Total at this venue since 2019.
4. JT Poston ($9,200; T2 – 2023, T11 – 2022) Poston’s record here shouldn’t be ignored. The putting maestro has improved his finishing position each of the past three seasons at Twin Cities and was one of the only players last year to give Lee Hodges a decent run for his money.
5. Sam Ryder ($7,700; T7 – 2023): Ryder is a name to potentially watch out for this week. The American has a strong approach game and has finished T25 and T7 here in two of the past three seasons.
RECENT FORM
1. Luke Clanton ($9,300; T37 – T2): Clanton has now shot 67 or better in five of his last eight PGA rounds. He’s gaining a ton of strokes off the tee and should find this wide-open course inviting.
2. Rico Hoey ($7,500; T8-T2): Hoey was a hard-luck loser at the ISCO Championship two weeks ago and had another solid showing last week at the Barracuda. He’s gained multiple strokes on approach in three straight starts.
3. Cam Davis ($8,900; T26 – win): Davis didn’t play in the Open despite being a top alternate, but had a solid week in Scotland finishing T26, the week prior. His ball-striking has been fantastic over his last two events.
4. Mac Meissner ($7,600; T3 – T16): Meissner held the lead at the Barracuda after three rounds but eventually fell off the pace on Sunday. He’s now posted three top-20 finishes in a row.
5. Chan Kim ($7,600; T29-T10): Kim has been great tee to green of late, gaining strokes on approach and off the tee in three straight events. His tee-to-green game makes him a solid value in this range right now for cash game lineups.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: van Rooyen and Griffin solid targets
If you are looking to create a more balanced build this week looking to veterans Ben Griffin ($7,900) and Erik van Rooyen ($8,600) is a good way to start things off. Griffin missed the cut at the Open Championship but has been gaining strokes with his irons nearly every week, and making a lot of cuts. He’s also a solid spike putter who could easily outperform this sub-8k salary. van Rooyen has also delivered better consistency this season and has been one of the best players on TOUR off the tee over the last month or so. He’s struggled at this event but his recent form makes him attractive in the imd-8k range. Other potential names to consider further down in this format include Chan Kim ($7,600), Doug Ghim ($7,300), and Sam Ryder ($7,100).
Tournaments: Burns could deliver a big week
It was a rough Sunday for Sam Burns ($10,000) at the Open last week, but the American should be buoyed by the fact he was able to get himself in contention with a big round the day prior. Burns’ production has been all over the map of late but he’s also only three starts removed from a top 10 at the US Open and has the kind of firepower necessary with his irons and putter to go low at TPC Twin Cities (he was T7 here in 2019). Behind him, I also like the chances for a big week from Adam Hadwin ($7,900 – see below) who got snubbed from the Olympics recently. Some names further down to look to in big-field GPPs include Patrick Fishburn ($7,300), Nick Hardy ($6,600), Brandon Wu ($6,400), and Trace Crowe ($6,300).
MY PICK: Adam Hadwin ($7,900)
I like the setup this week for Hadwin, a player who we have seen come very close to notching win #2 on the PGA multiple times over the last year.
The Canadian missed the cut at the Open Championship last week but gained over 3.0 strokes on approach at the Scottish Open, and is just a few starts removed from a T3 at the Memorial — where he finished T3 and went head-to-head with the indomitable Scottie Scheffler.
Hadwin can be a bit up and down in his results, but there is little doubt that he likes a venue where he can be aggressive with his irons and where birdie chances are available on almost every hole. He’s finished top five at TPC Stadium (host of the American Express) numerous times and finished 2nd at both the Rocket Mortgage and the Shriners, two events known for lower scoring.
In his four visits to TPC Twin Cities, he’s produced two lackluster finishes (MC and T38) but also has T4 and T6 finishes from 2019 and 2021. Overall, he’s gained strokes putting in all four of his previous starts at this venue and with his long game trending well, seems like a good candidate to go low this week.
For DFS, Hadwin’s $7,900 makes him a cash game candidate but he’s also someone I would prefer to be overweight on in GPPs thanks to how often he tends to spike for top finishes (five Top six finishes over his last 20 starts).
MY SLEEPER: Nick Hardy ($6,600)
I am very in on Nick Hardy this week.
Despite missing the cut last week at the Barracuda, the American has been trending extremely well with his irons of late, gaining +10.1 strokes on approach (total) over his last three events. He’s suffered on the greens over that same stretch (-13.8 strokes) but comes to a course in TPC Twin Cities where he’s gained 3.5 and 3.8 strokes putting the last two seasons.
From a profile perspective, he aligns very nicely with last year’s winner Lee Hodges, who came in with a long game that was in great form and overcame some recent putting woes to post a monster week at this venue. Hardy’s not someone I would use in cash games or 50/50 lineups necessarily, but at $6,600 he’s the kind of boom-or-bust player who could win you a big field GPP this week if all goes to plan.
For betting, I also think he’s being discounted a bit in the outright market at +20000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is undervaluing how good his long game has been in recent starts.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
