The Atlanta Falcons have been down bad for a while now. Sure, they got to the Super Bowl and had strong teams with Matt Ryan at the helm, but we all know how that Super Bowl appearance went after getting a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in the third quarter. Even the good times will be remembered poorly, which has fans and management more than ready to get things turned around. And if there is going to be a turnaround after three 7-10 Arthur Smith seasons, this year is as good as any.
Atlanta jettisoned Smith and brought back Raheem Morris, who actually was the Falcons interim coach after they let Dan Quinn go in 2020. And then they brought in veteran free agent Kirk Cousins to lead an offense that has been without a competent quarterback Matt Ryan lost his arm to old age.
Cousins is the poster boy for above average quarterbacking, but not great quarterbacking. He can play like Tom Brady one day and then Bubby Brister the next. There are more Brady days than than Brister days though and overall, he is a huge upgrade for this offense. The question is, can he come into a new offense and be effective year one?
Kirk Cousins over/under TD passes 30, passing yards 4000.5
These are some pretty lofty numbers for a quarterback coming off an Achilles injury and joining a new team, but they aren’t numbers Cousins has had a lot of trouble hitting in the past. In seasons where he started at least 15 games, Cousins has topped 4k yards seven of eight seasons. But, touchdown numbers do get a little trickier. With Washington, Cousins never hit 30 touchdown passes. In his three seasons as starter, he tossed 29, 25, and 27 TDs. With the Vikings those numbers went up and he threw 30, 26, 35, 33, and 29 and was on pace to easily top 30 before his injury last season.
Offensive stars misused
So, we know he can get to these numbers, but what is he getting into in Atlanta? For fantasy footballers like myself, the Falcons are a treasure trove of fantasy value ready to explode. Last season we watched as Arthur Smith prioritized players not named Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts in a vain attempt to show he knows better than everyone else. He didn’t.
Morris on the other hand said, “In as simple of a form as you can possibly make it, it’s ‘get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations that you possibly can,” per AtlantaFalcons.com. Even though Robinson is the running back, we know this also means he will get plenty of receiving opportunities and help the offense stay on the field.
New offensive coordinator
Besides Cousins, the Falcons also brought in Sean McVay pupil Zac Robinson to run the offense. Robinson worked five years under McVay and also is a former Pro Football Focus employee. Morris will have his hands full with the Falcons defense while Robinson gets a strong set of offensive starters to draw up plays for.
Bad defense = lots of offensive opportunities
And the new OC will get plenty of chances to draw up passing plays, as the Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league. Morris will definitely make them better defensively, but he’s not a miracle worker. Cousins will need to drop back plenty to make up for a lackluster defense.
Strength of schedule
As usual, the NFC South remains one of the weakest divisions in football and the Falcons get to play those teams twice. Overall, the Falcons have the easiest schedule based on DraftKings Sportsbook win-totals.
Offensive line is key
Cousins is an extremely accurate and dependable quarterback in a clean pocket, but not so much under pressure. This fact has always followed Cousins around and it’s never going to go away completely. The good news is that the Falcons have one of the best offensive lines in the league, anchored by Chris Lindstrom at guard. They don’t have a lot of depth, so health will be needed, but that’s really the case all throughout this offense if you’re looking to bet on the overs here.
Final thoughts
Betting the unders across the board on individual player season stats is the way to go. There are just too many factors that need to fall your way for a player to stay healthy for 17 games and have a team situation that keeps them consistently getting above average stats. And that’s how I felt coming into this article. New team, new offense, recent season-ending injury, trouble with pressure, and an admitted bias against Cousins had me ready to hit the under and hard. But, taking a deeper look has changed my thinking. Sure, health will always be a concern when betting on a full season of stats, but there is no doubt the Falcons offense under Cousins SHOULD be able to put up 4,000 yards and 30 passing touchdowns.
I feel better about betting the over on 4000.5 passing yards than I do the touchdowns, as touchdowns are fickle no matter how you look at them. But I also believe that he should be projected for those 30 touchdowns.