2024 NFL sortable strength of schedule grid based on win-totals

Trying to predict a whole NFL season is impossible. Sure, you can get a lot right, but there are just too many variables to consider and get incorrect. So, strength of schedule numbers are always a little suspect, but we do have one thing in our favor and that’s Vegas win-totals.

Win-totals, like everything else aren’t perfect, but they are much more predictive than relying on something like last year’s winning percentage. Sportsbooks take offseason coaching and personnel changes into consideration when setting lines.

First, we need to check out the win-totals set for each team and then go a little further and narrow them down using the odds to their implied total. That gives us a good number to then put in for every matchup of the season. Once you do that, you can add them, or average them like I did here, to see which teams have the toughest schedules based on win-totals and you can see their seasons in perspective from game-to game.

This is especially helpful in best ball tournaments, where you need to pay extra attention to the Week 15, 16, 17 matchups. You’ll need to put up good numbers in those weeks to advance (as long as you placed high enough in the regular season to get into the playoffs).

As you can see below, I’ve removed Week 18, as the majority of leagues end in Week 17. It didn’t change the overall SOS too much, as the Patriots, Steelers, Vikings, Browns and Titans still face the Top 5 toughest schedules, while the Falcons, Chargers, Jets, Bengals and Bears face the Top-5 easiest. But, we can also take a look at just the playoff schedules as well, which I’ll do a deep dive on in another post.

Good overall stacking options in best ball

The Falcons, if they can get anything going on offense with Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are a strong group to stack in best ball. They have an overall easy schedule and also have a good fantasy playoff run as well. Plus, they have the players to do well on offense and they will likely need to do well, as their defense should remain average at best.

The Chargers schedule also looks great, especially in the playoffs. We do have to question whether Justin Herbert can put up good numbers on a run-first based offense, but there’s little doubt he’s going to have to put up some points on the board with a weak overall defense. The Chargers also have a group of offensive players that shouldn’t cost too much in drafts, making them a cheap stacker.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are once again set up to win games as long as Rodgers can stay healthy. They have a weak schedule, great defense, along with strong pieces on offense. Rodgers is getting up there in age and a full healthy season is hard to predict, but there is no doubt they have the look of a team that can make some noise this season.

Here are the implied win-totals as of May 22nd using DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds

And here is a sortable grid for your sorting pleasure: