We are entering the dog days of summer and are in that down period between when teams are wrapping up mandatory minicamps and are off until mid-to-late July when training camp begins. It may feel like it is too early to start looking at fantasy football rankings, but some leagues are already drafting, and August will be here before you know it. With that in mind, let’s mock the first round of a 12-team Half-PPR league and see which players are being valued the highest this year.
Round 1
1.01 Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 1.01)
McCaffrey reigns supreme as the top pick for 2024 fantasy football leagues. When the veteran running back can stay healthy, he is one of the best players in the NFL. Last year CMC played in all 16 games, only resting in Week 18 after the 49ers had already locked down a playoff spot. He led the league with 1,459 rushing yards, surpassing the second-place running back, Derrick Henry, by nearly 300 yards. McCaffrey added 14 rushing touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league and second-most for a running back, trailing Raheem Mostert by four scores.
The half-PPR scoring format only helps him from the amount of work he sees in the passing game. He had the fourth-most targets (83) among running backs and the third-most receptions (67). McCaffrey added 564 yards (second-most among RBs) and seven touchdowns (lead RBs, tied for 18th-most in all NFL) to his dominant rushing profile.
Looking through most metrics for running backs, you will find CMC toward the top. He led the league in yards per attempt for running backs with at least 105 touches (5.4). McCaffrey also had the most rushes of 20+ yards (19) and fantasy points per game (22.4). Barring a very unfortunate preseason injury, he should be the top pick in your fantasy football leagues unless you have some wacky scoring settings.
1.02 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 1.02)
Last season saw Justin Jefferson as not only the top pick in fantasy football but also the first wide receiver coming off the board. With a change under center in Minnesota, Lamb is seeing his value rise in Dallas, and it doesn’t hurt that he is in a contract year. We don’t know what his long-term future holds, but for now, he should be the first wideout drafted in 2024 half-PPR fantasy football leagues.
Lamb finished as the overall WR1 last year with 335.7 fantasy points, almost 20 points ahead of the WR2 Tyreek Hill. The Dallas Cowboys wideout brought in 135 of his 181 targets for 1,749 yards with 13 touchdowns. Lamb is expected to retain his upside in 2024, largely because Dallas didn’t take many steps to improve its passing attack in the offseason. Michael Gallup left in free agency, and he wasn’t replaced. Unless there is an injury to either player, Lamb should be quarterback Dak Prescott’s top target again in 2024.
1.03 Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 1.03)
Hill is known for his ability to turn a check-down pass into a huge scoring play. He is the top receiving option for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa alongside Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins signed veteran Odell Beckham Jr., and while I think he does chip away at the targets that head Hill’s way, it shouldn’t be many.
The speedster led the league last year with 1,799 yards despite missing a game. He was tied for the league lead with 13 touchdowns and had the fourth-most yards after catch to go with his league-leading 112.4 yards per game. For fantasy, Hill averaged the most fantasy points per game (19.8) and led the league with 57 receptions of at least 20 yards — 15 more than Brandon Aiyuk, who had the second-most.
1.04 Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 1.13)
I recently wrote about who the RB2 behind McCaffrey should be and detailed why I am buying back into Taylor. A healthy Anthony Richardson should help open up the offense, especially the rushing attack. Richardson may not run as much in his first full season after having an injury-shortened rookie year, but the fact that he is a threat to scramble at any time is something the defense will have to look out for.
Taylor only played in 10 games last year but finished with 774 yards and seven touchdowns. He finished as the overall RB33 in half-PPR scoring and averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game (eighth-most in the league for a running back). If Taylor had played even in six more games and sustained his average, he would have finished as the overall RB8 ahead of Derrick Henry. He doesn’t have much competition for touches this year as former teammate Zack Moss — who led the Colts in rushing last year — is now with the Cincinnati Bengals.
1.05 Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 1.04)
Can Chase get a full season of passes from quarterback Joe Burrow in 2024? The QB only played 10 games last season before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. Jake Browning performed above expectations and at least helped Chase still see a high target share. He finished with 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns after bringing in 100 of his 145 targets. This was good enough to land Chase as the overall WR13. While that seems low for him, I think we all expected him to finish way lower once Browning took over.
Burrow’s wrist is expected to be fully healthy by the time the season starts, but if he suffers any setbacks through training camp, Chase’s ADP could drop. The Bengals wide receiver has yet to have a season with fewer than 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. If he and Burrow can stay healthy, he could be in for a big year.
1.06 Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 1.14)
I am very high on Barkley this season. The Eagles were found not to have tampered with him, so he is full-go with Philly. The former New York Giants running back has a great opportunity with his new team. Yes, the Eagles don’t have Jason Kelce under center anymore, but they should retain one of the top offensive lines in the league.
New York had a down year in 2023 with Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito all starting under center due to injuries to the QB room. Barkley dealt with injuries himself and played in only 12 games. He still finished with 962 yards with six touchdowns and added 280 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Barkley ended the season as the overall RB12. Even if there are more mouths to feed in the Eagles’ passing game and quarterback Jalen Hurts takes away some of the carries, Barkley should still be able to finish as a top running back behind a better o-line on a much better team.
1.07 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (ADP: 1.07)
You always hear about how players will have chips on their shoulders and always remind themselves of the players drafted above them at their position. St. Brown has actually proved he was overlooked after being drafted in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. In the three seasons he has played, he has at least 912 yards and five touchdowns each season. Last year, St. Brown finished with 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns as the overall WR3 for fantasy football.
When Jared Goff took over under center, there was worry that St. Brown wouldn’t be able to take that next step in his development. He has, and both he and Goff earned a shiny new contract extension. Josh Reynolds is no longer with the Lions and St. Brown doesn’t have a ton of competition for targets outside of breakout tight end Sam LaPorta.
1.08 Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (ADP: 1.06)
Hall may be an interesting name to see in the first round of fantasy football drafts. Despite the down year that the New York Jets had, Hall rebounded from his 2022 torn ACL well and was one of the few bright spots for the team. He played in all 17 games and ran the ball 223 times for 994 yards and five touchdowns.
Hall was a prime beneficiary from the revolving door that New York used under center after Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. The backup quarterbacks checked down to him early and often as he finished with an additional 591 yards and five touchdowns. Hall brought in 76 of his 95 targets, both of which led the league for running backs.
1.09 Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 1.08)
It felt like Robinson had a disappointing rookie season with the way that former head coach Arthur Smith used him in the offense alongside Tyler Allgeier. Robinson finished with 214 carries for 976 yards and four touchdowns in 17 games, while Allgeier had 683 yards and four touchdowns on 186 carries in the same span.
Despite the close carry count, Robinson had the clear advantage in the receiving game. He came down with 58 of his 86 targets for 487 yards and four touchdowns. Allgeier only had 193 yards and a touchdown through the air. Atlanta brought in quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and he should be able to help open up the offense, which should help Robinson. New head coach Raheem Morris has been adamant this offseason that the game plan is to get the ball in his starting running back’s hands as much as he can. 1.09 may be too low for Robinson, but I’m also expecting the passing game to be much more efficient with Cousins under center.
1.10 Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 1.09)
Nacua feels like he is going to be high-risk, high-reward in 2024. It wouldn’t shock me if he comes back down to Earth and finishes as the overall WR25, just as much as it wouldn’t shock me if he is a top-five fantasy football wideout this season. The fifth-round pick had a huge breakout rookie year with 1,486 yards and six touchdowns.
Veteran wide receiver Cooper Kupp struggled with injuries, and Nacua was there to help pick up the slack. Quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t getting any younger, but while he is healthy, Nacua should see a steady stream of targets. The presence of Kupp and running back Kyren Williams just gives more targets for the defense to focus on when Stafford drops back, and Nacua should have plenty of opportunities to show that he wasn’t a one-year fluke.
1.11 Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 1.05)
If you thought I forgot about Jefferson, you’d be wrong. The unquestioned number one fantasy football pick and wideout from a year ago barely cracks into the first round. Despite the talent for Jefferson, I could not be more worried about his quarterbacks. The Vikings were in love in the offseason with J.J. McCarthy, and while minicamp reports need to be taken with a grain of salt, there is some concern that reports make it sound like Minnesota is underwhelmed with their rookie. Head coach Kevin Stefanski said that Sam Darnold is the starter heading into training camp this fall, and whether that is true or not, it’s a scary enough sentence.
Jefferson played in only 10 games last season and still managed to finish with 1,074 yards and five touchdowns. The Vikings still have Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson to eat up other targets, but the latter may not be ready by the start of the season after his late-season torn ACL a year ago. No matter who is under center, Jefferson should still be able to have a great year, but I do think he gets knocked a little from his QB play.
1.12 Garret Wilson, WR, New York Jets (ADP: 1.11)
Wilson is due for the season we were all hyped for last year. Rodgers is expected to be healthy and, barring another freak accident should be on the field for more than one or two series in 2024. New York is also hoping that wide receiver Mike Williams can rebound from his own season-ending injury in 2023 to help open up the passing attack.
Even with Rodgers sidelined and Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle splitting time under center, Wilson finished with 1,042 yards and three touchdowns. He brought in 95 of his 168 targets (fourth-most targets in the league), and while his target share in 2024 should come down, his reception number should improve with better-quality passes. Wilson could end up being a steal at the 12th pick.