The fantasy football regular season won’t kick off until early September, but some leagues are using OTAs as a motivator to go ahead and start drafting. Whether it is bestball or regular fantasy football formats, it isn’t too early to get an idea of the names to know for this upcoming season.
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is coming off another big season and retains his spot as the best running back in fantasy football for 2024. Barring an injury between now and Week 1, CMC should be the 1.01 of non-PPR, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring formats unless your home league has some wacky scoring settings. Who should be the next running back selected in 2024 fantasy football leagues with McCaffrey off the board?
Why is Christian McCaffrey RB1?
Before looking at the RB2, we should probably go over why McCaffrey is the RB1. The 49ers running back is the epitome of the dual-threat RB who can burn defenses on the ground and catch passes out of the backfield. The 49ers’ offensive scheme fits him perfectly and McCaffrey usually sees enough carries and targets to have plenty of opportunity for fantasy football success.
McCaffrey began his career with the Carolina Panthers and was often considered injury-prone. His talent was evident, but between 2020 and 2021, he combined to play in just 10 games, so fantasy football managers became wary. McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco midway through the 2022 season and has missed just one game since and it was due to rest ahead of last year’s playoffs.
Last season, CMC played in 16 games and finished with a career-high 1,459 rushing yards. He scored 14 rushing touchdowns, adding 564 yards and seven more scores through the air. McCaffrey finished with 357.8 fantasy points in half-PPR, 391.3 in full-PPR and 324.3 in non-PPR leagues. No matter the format, he beat out the second-best running back by at least 80 fantasy points. With no big regime changes in San Francisco, it isn’t crazy to think that the star running back is able to recreate this success.
RB2 Contenders
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor had a rollercoaster start to his 2023. He tried holding out for a contract extension when team owner Jim Irsay said that they wouldn’t trade him, and the two sides weren’t on the same page money-wise for the extension. Taylor was then put on the PUP list with a back injury, meaning he would miss the first four games of the 2023 season, and the running back came out and said he wasn’t hurt.
It was a wild way to begin the season, but when the dust settled, Taylor had a three-year extension paying him through the 2026 season. The 25-year-old played in just 10 games last year but finished with 741 rushing yards with seven rushing touchdowns. Taylor added 151 yards and a receiving touchdown to finish with 146.9 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring, good enough for the overall RB33 spot.
If you project Taylor’s 2023 per-game averages over a full 17-game season, he would’ve had 1,259 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns, adding 260 receiving yards and a score on 32 receptions. These numbers would’ve given him 239 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring, moving him up to an RB6 tie with Kyren Williams last season. Taylor also had Gardner Minshew under center in most of the games he played. He is now expected to have Anthony Richardson coming off his season-ending shoulder injury in what should be a much better offense.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley will be donning a new uniform in 2024 after signing with the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason. When the New York Giants let him walk, you have to assume that they didn’t think he would wind up with an NFC East divisional rival. Now, Barkley joins an offense alongside Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
This could cause concern if the offense ends up replicating the Baltimore Ravens, where quarterback Lamar Jackson has been known to lead the team in rushing yards the last few seasons. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but it doesn’t feel like the Eagles would sign Barkley to his deal with the intention of making him a tertiary option in the offense.
Even playing for a bad New York team in 2023, Barkley finished with 962 yards and six touchdowns on the ground in 14 games. He picked up an additional 280 yards and four scores through the air from the Giants quarterback trio of Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito and Daniel Jones. Barkley ended 2023 with 202.7 fantasy points in half-PPR, coming in as the overall RB12.
Philadelphia had D’Andre Swift as its starting running back a year ago. He picked up 1,049 rushing yards with five touchdowns in 16 games and added 214 yards and another score through the air. Swift finished as the overall RB23 in half-PPR scoring. All of this is to say that Barkley’s involvement in the offense shouldn’t change much with his new team, giving him plenty of upside for the fantasy football season.
Bijan Robinson
Robinson was drafted with the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With that high draft capital, everyone was sure that head coach Arthur Smith would do the right thing and give Robinson a heavy workload in the backfield. Well, that didn’t happen, as the rookie had more of a split with second-year running back Tyler Allgeier, who had 186 carries to Robinson’s 214. Robinson was featured more as the season progressed, but it still felt like a lackluster year after starting with such high expectations.
Heading into 2024, Robinson is still joined by Allgeier in the backfield but under new head coach Raheem Morris. Robinson ran for 976 yards as a rookie, with four touchdowns in 17 games. He added 487 yards and four touchdowns through the air and now transitions from Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke to Kirk Cousins under center. Robinson should be able to garner more carries this year, with Allgeier likely falling into more of a supplemental role rather than a pretty even split.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs was drafted shortly after Robinson, but many believed it to be more of a head-scratching move than anything. The Detroit Lions had just signed David Montgomery in free agency. Monty had a strong start to the season, but an injury gave Gibbs the opportunity to he needed. He shined as a rookie and we saw both running backs be productive for fantasy football.
Gibbs played in 15 games and had 945 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns. Montgomery had 1,015 yards and 13 touchdowns. While their rushing numbers were similar, the rook had the clear advantage through the air, finishing with 316 yards and another touchdown on 52 receptions compared to only 117 yards on 16 receptions for the veteran.
Montgomery has two years left on his contract, so we likely will see him and Gibbs split work in the backfield again. It worked, so why change it? That being said, if Gibbs can force his way into the starting role and have the higher snap count, that could be enough to move him up a few spots in the fantasy football leaderboard at the end of the season. If he can crack 1,200 yards, 11+ touchdowns and still add 250+ receiving yards with another handful of scores, he could certainly be in the mix to finish as the RB2.
Derrick Henry
Similiar to Barkley, Henry also will find himself sporting a new uniform next season. After spending the first eight years of his career with the Tennessee Titans, the veteran back is heading to Baltimore to play alongside Jackson, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.
The Ravens would likely be ecstatic if Henry were able to replicate his performance from either of the last two years. In 2022, he finished with 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns and followed it up with 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns a season ago. Baltimore hasn’t had a non-quarterback rush for at least 1,000 yards since Mark Ingram tallied 1,018 yards in 2019. The last running back to have more than 1,019 yards in a season for the Ravens was Justin Forsett in 2014, and he finished with 1,266.
Even with Jackson being the focal point of the offense, Henry should be able to have a similar workload. The Ravens have recently deployed a running back by committee between J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Dobbins and Edwards are both with the Los Angeles Chargers now. Hill should be Henry’s primary backup until second-year RB Keaton Mitchell fully recovers from his torn ACL suffered late last season. Henry should see a hefty share of carries throughout the year.
Final Thoughts
The most common fantasy football redraft dates come right before the start of the regular season so you don’t draft someone that gets hurt for the year in a preseason game. There is still plenty of time for some fluctuation to happen ahead of the regular season, but for now, Jonathan Taylor is the RB2 in redraft fantasy football leagues.
Assuming he stays healthy, he should be able to bounce back to his usual dominant self with Richardson helping to open up the offense. Last season, Zack Moss played well when Taylor was sidelined so he got a lot of opportunity when the starter returned. Moss is now in Cincinnati and Taylor’s backup projects to be Trey Sermon and/or Evan Hull. Neither should be able to push for a split backfield so Taylor should shine and bring a big return on the high investment.