The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (formerly AT&T) is a full-field event that will feature 156 golfers. It’s the second-to-last warmup start on the schedule before the PGA Championship in two weeks and features a field with four top 30 players. The defending champion is Jason Day, who won this event last season at 23-under par. The course (TPC Craig Ranch) will be the host for just the fourth season. We don’t have a ton of course history notes or data to go off of, but we can look back at Day’s win and two-time winner KH Lee’s (2021, 2022) performances to give us a good indicator of what to expect from a winner.
The event is headlined by the World No. 20 Jordan Spieth, who is making his 12th career start this season at this event. Will Zalatoris and Si Woo Kim (one of last year’s runner-ups) will also be in attendance. Daniel Berger is also playing this event for the first time since 2021 and notably finished T3 at Craig Ranch that year.
The cut (top-65 and ties) will take place in its usual spot after Friday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch—McKinney, Texas
Par 71, 7,414 yards; Green: Bentgrass
TPC Craig Ranch was built back in 2004 by Tom Weiskopf and has signed on as host for the Byron Nelson up until 2025. The venue has seen some action hosting other professional Tours and acted as the stage for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship back in 2012, an event that saw a winning score of 16-under par. In its first two seasons hosting the Byron, the pros have been helped by rain softening the course, and, as a result, we saw winning scores explode past 24 under in both runnings. The course was changed to a Par 71 for 2023 after the 500+ yard Par 5 12th hole was transformed into a 492 yards Par 4. It won’t make much of a difference for how the course plays long-term but the winning score was a little bit higher in 2023 (-23) as a result.
The venue now sets up as a traditional par 71, and like many Weiskopf designs, it has a nice blend of tougher stretches and scoring holes. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale, which plays around the same length as TPC Craig Ranch and has traditionally seen winners post 16 to 19 under par for their winning scores. The three par 5s at TPC Craig Ranch all present decent birdie chances, as only one measures in at over 560 yards.
While there are shorter par 5s in play, there are also seven par 4s now that measure in at over 450 yards. Looking at players with good efficiency stats between 450-500 yards is certainly worth your while, as is long approach proximity stats. With softer greens and an open design, GIR% tends to be higher than normal, making around the green play less relevant. The top finishers at this event over the last two seasons gained the least amount of strokes around the greens (compared to other categories).
The routing of the course isn’t overly complex as there aren’t many doglegs in play and the venue does appear to have plenty of space just off the fairways in many spots. We don’t have a ton of data to work off, but 2022 saw players able to set themselves up for big weeks on approach — even with just sub-par work off the tee. KH Lee gained +7.0 strokes more on approach than off the tee in 2021 and was again far more positive in 2022 on approach than off the tee.
Jason Day had a great week with his irons in 2023 as well and he was followed on the leaderboard by aggressive approach players like Austin Eckroat and Si Woo Kim, who look like solid prototypes for the kind of player we want to target this week.
2024 Weather Outlook: Rain and thunderstorms have afflicted this event ever since it moved to TPC Craig Ranch and 2024 looks like it will suffer from the same fate. Thursday (via AccuWeather) has a Probability of Precipitation set at 99% as of writing with a 59% chance of thunderstorms. Even if that is slightly off, it’s likely we have some heavier rains and potential stoppages — if not a complete wipeout. Friday does look much better with more sun in the forecast and a low chance of rain (15%), but Saturday brings an 80% chance of precipitation and more Thunderstorms. From a wave/stacking perspective for DFS, it’s hard to know how the weather will play out, and getting exposure to both sides of the draw will be paramount. If we are trying to make early educated guesses, the Thursday PM starters may get to play all of Round 1 and most of Round 2 on Friday which, theoretically, could be a big advantage.
Last 5 Winners
**2023—Jason Day -23 (over Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat)
2022—KH Lee -26 (over Jordan Spieth -25)
2021—KH Lee -25 (over Sam Burns -23)
*2019—Sung Kang -23 (over Scott Piercy -21)
*2018—Aaron Wise -23 (over Marc Leishman -20)
*Note: Tournaments played between ‘16 to ‘19 were played at different venues than TPC Craig Ranch.
**TPC Craig Ranch changed to a par 71.
Winning Trends
– Nine of the last 10 winners of the Byron Nelson had already recorded a T8 or better on the PGA TOUR in the same year of their victory—prior to winning at the Byron Nelson.
– Five of the last six winners of the Byron Nelson played the week prior (three of those winners missed the cut at their previous start).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Jason Day—2023 (23-under-par; at TPC Craig Ranch)
2023 lead-in form (MC-T39-T19-T10-T9)
SG: OTT — +2.3
SG: APP — +5.2
SG: TTG — +10.2
SG: ATG — +2.7
SG: PUTT — +3.9
- KH Lee didn’t come in with sparkling form in either of the past two seasons, but he was starting to show signs of breakout before his win with better iron play — he also made the cut and had good approach stats at the Wells Fargo prior to each win.
- This is somewhat similar to what Jason Day showed us in 2023 as well. Day had had some good weeks with his ball-striking and had posted multiple top 10 finishes on the season — despite missing the cut the week prior.
- In 2022, Lee gained most of his strokes on the field through his approach game and also excelled on the par 4s at TPC Craig Ranch, where he was ranked second in efficiency for the week in 2021 (TPC Craig Ranch has six par 4s over 450 yards).
- In both seasons, Lee wasn’t anywhere near the top in fairways gained or strokes gained off-the-tee stats, but he was near the lead in GIR%. Lee also led the field in proximity from 150-175 yards and was top-5 from 175-200 yards as well in 2021.
- Day was somewhat similar in his 2023. He gained over 6.4 strokes on approach last season and excelled from 175-200 in total proximity stats.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Tom Kim +3000 and $9,000
Comparables:
- Byeong Hun An +3000 and $9,300
- Stephen Jaeger +3000 and $9,200
- Tom Hoge +3000 and $9,100
Beau Hossler +5500 and $7,800
Comparables:
- Mark Hubbard +5500 and $8,100
- Aaron Rai +5500 and $8,000
- Seamus Power +5500 and $7,900
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Justin Lower ($7,500; T4-T25): It’s crazy to think, but Lower does have some of the best recent form in this weaker field. He’s a strong putter and has shown better upside with his irons over his last few starts.
2. Alex Noren ($9,500; T23-T14): Noren continues to look extremely close to breaking through. The veteran hasn’t missed a cut since last September on the PGA and overcame a slow start in Punta Cana two weeks ago to post his fifth straight top-25 finish.
3. Thomas Detry ($8,700; T28-T2): Detry is another European player who has looked solid for much of 2024. He finished T8 at the team event last week and was T8 just a couple of stops ago in Houston. His putter is firing and that is a club he’s shown can carry him for long portions of the schedule.
4. Si Woo Kim ($9,800; T18-T30): Kim hasn’t racked up a ton of big results yet — thanks mainly to his below-average putting — but his tee-to-green game has been immaculate for much of the year. When he finally figures out his flatstick, a big week will be right around the corner.
5. Peter Kuest ($7,500; T9-T10): Kuest turned a Monday qualifying entry at the Valero into a T10 result and posted another T9 at Punta Cana. He’s getting another start this week and his form shouldn’t be ignored given the overall weakness of this field.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Zalatoris a solid anchor in a weaker field
Editor’s Note: Will Zalatoris has withdrawn from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
We don’t have a ton of big names at this event and of the ones who are playing, many are not in the greatest of form. Will Zalatoris ($10,000) has already been close to winning on a couple of occasions this season and while he didn’t have his A-game in his last start it was just two weeks ago that he posted his third career top 10 at Augusta. At 10k flat he won’t kill you salary-wise and gives you a good floor with plenty of upside for this format. Tom Hoge ($9,100 – see below) is another solid name to build around, as is Doug Ghim ($7,700) who is great with his mid-irons and has shown upside at this venue and others like it. Other names to consider here include Justin Lower ($7,500), Matthias Schmid ($7,200), and Ryan Moore ($6,800).
Tournaments: Byeong Hun An a good wildcard
An was one of the leaders in ball striking at the RBC Heritage until a disastrous final round dropped him towards the bottom of the field. It’s really hard to know which Byeong Hun An ($9,300) we’ll get this week but he has done well around Craig Ranch (T14 in 2023) and has also played well around another Tom Weiskopf design in TPC Scottsdale. Daniel Berger is still making his way back from an injury layoff, but at $7,400 he is certainly worthy of being included in GPP player pools. He finished T3 at this venue on his last visit in 2021. Below him, names like Andrew Novak ($7,400), Garrick Higgo ($7,300), Bud Cauley ($7,200), Davis Riley ($6,700) and Dylan Wu ($6,700) all offer appeal.
MY PICK: Tom Hoge ($9,100)
Despite Hoge’s ball-striking proficiency he’s shown to be a better DFS and betting target when the scoring is a little easier and he can take dead aim at flags — rather than having to rely on lag putting or his short game to bail him out. He won at the shorter Pebble Beach in 2022 (reaching 19-under par for the week) and also placed second at the Amex in 2021, getting to 21-under par that season.
With Craig Ranch expected to play soft due to rain, Hoge’s propensity for firing at pins should again take center stage. He ranks first in strokes gained approach stats in this field and is top 15 in proximity from 200+ yards and 150-175 yards. He’s already posted a decent result at Craig Ranch (T17 in 2022) and also has shown good upside at courses like TPC Scottsdale (T14 2022, T17 2024) and TPC Twin Lakes (T6 2023) where longer approaches are also emphasized, and aggressive iron play is rewarded.
Hoge’s coming off a disappointing finish, where he took a 9 on the Par 4 final hole at the RBC Heritage to drop from a top-five position to T18. Still, before that mishap he had played great in his previous solo start and should be fired up to get back to normal stroke play again, after missing the cut last week in the team format. At $9,100 on DraftKings, he’s a good target for more balanced builds, and at +3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, he certainly has odds big enough to consider for an outright play this week.
MY SLEEPER: Mark Hubbard ($8,100)
This looks like a solid place to back Mark Hubbard who makes for an intriguing mid-level value in DFS. The 34-year-old is coming off a solid week in New Orleans where he teamed with Ryan Brehm and managed a T3 finish at the Zurich Classic, team event. Hubbard carried the team for long stretches with his approach game and an improved short game that should give him confidence this week.
His strengths line up well with TPC Craig Ranch where the easier-to-hold greens reward good precision from 175+ yards. Hubbard comes in ranked 26th in strokes gained approach stats and 12th in proximity (175-200 yards) over the last 24 rounds. He’s also had strong results at courses with good correlation to Craig Ranch, posting a T9 at TPC Scottsdale in 2020, and top 20 finishes at TPC Twin Lakes and PGA National. With a weaker field and a setup that plays to his strength, he makes sense as a big field GPP target and a player to pounce on for top 10 and outright bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
