Our reasonable hot streak March Madness continues, as we check in at 10-5 after five days of competition. And if UConn’s Tristen Newton, who hadn’t captured an offensive rebound in his last four games, didn’t get six of them last night along with one tapped-to-him defensive one to go over 6.5 boards vs. San Diego State yesterday, we’d be 11-4. We’re honestly still kind of not over it. I mean how does that even happen??
But there is no rest for the frustrated during the best event in college sports. We’re back at it below.
2024 March Madness picks: Friday, March 29
Creighton +3.5 vs. Tennessee
The Bluejays are one of the hottest teams in college basketball, having covered in five of their last six. They also have the size in players like Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman to get slightly less frustrated with the Vols length than most of their opponents.
CU doesn’t force turnovers, instead they pack it in and force bad shots. Expect plenty of that tonight as Dalton Knecht will be made to give it up, and the rest of Tennessee asked to fill in the offense.
Rick Barnes’s SEC champions have looked good in the tournament so far, but that was through a Saint Peter’s team that certainly wasn’t as good as last year’s Cinderella, and a Texas side battling injuries. They also won’t help themselves in a category where Creighton might feel a bit unlucky: No team in Division I has made a better percentage of free throws made by opponents than the Bluejays.
Duke vs. Houston Under 134
We do wish we knew the officials for this one before making the pick (this did help us fire an under last night), as we’re going to need a crew that won’t over-penalize the No. 1 seeded Cougars for playing their base defense. But don’t expect a lot of makes in this game either way, and just hope to avoid overtime.
UH is No. 2 nationally in defense, and 346th of 362 D1 teams in pace. The Blue Devils are 245th in pace, but their No. 5 offense hasn’t really seen a team with elite length, physicality, and athleticism in ACC play this season. And Michigan State was Not It in November.
This will be a war if it’s officiated how most of this NCAA Tournament has been, and the first team to 45 wins.
J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 rebounds
We think Houston vs. Duke will be extremely physical, and we know the Coogs are going to be focused on cleaning the glass over everything. The more physical and tough the team, the more UH relies on their 6’7 boards guy.
In the last four games Roberts has played over 30 minutes (which after battling some light injuries he did against Texas A&M in the Round of 32), the senior has averaged at least 8.3 boards in those contests and gone over seven in all of them. Expect that to hold against the Blue Devils.
