We’re onto the second weekend of the tournament, and while a couple of lower seeds in the ACC have advanced, the chalk has primarily advanced. I think that theme could continue — let’s take a look at Thursday’s Sweet 16 games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Clemson vs. Arizona
Arizona/Marquette ML Parlay (-125) — 1-unit
Not much of a take on this game, as well as Marquette facing off against NC State on Friday. But if we look at both of these lower seeds from the ACC advancing, they haven’t taken down a significant opponent yet, outside of Baylor. And in breakdown Clemson’s win over Baylor, the Bears were just dreadful in that game, but still had a late chance to tie it.
Not to take away credit for beating the teams in front of them, but Arizona and Marquette present far tougher challenges. Clemson ranks 68th in defensive efficiency and will really try to slow the tempo down — Tigers rank 260th in tempo. But the Wildcats are as balanced as it gets — 8th in offensive efficiency and 12th on defense. Ranking 16th in tempo, if Arizona is able to play their pace, there’s just going to be too many possessions for Clemson to keep Zona from pulling away unless the Cats are just ice cold.
San Diego State vs. Connecticut
UConn -10.5 (-115) — 1-unit
UConn 1H -5.5 (-115) — 1-unit
UConn/UNC ML Parlay (-125) — 1-unit
I’m loaded to the gills with Huskies futures, but I couldn’t resist betting them in this game. Dan Hurley has found an angle to motivate his team heading into every test, and has challenged them to not just win, but go out and dominate. The Huskies won the Natty over SDSU last year by 17 points, and this UConn squad might be better, while the Aztecs are a far inferior team to last season.
It’s been a one-man show for SDSU with Jaedon LeDee, while the Huskies have firepower everywhere. Unlike UAB and Yale, UConn also has the bodies to shut LeDee down. This one gets ugly early and stays that way.
Alabama vs. North Carolina
UConn/UNC ML Parlay (-125) — 1-unit
Like UConn, we have a nice future on UNC to win this game at a great price. But I love the matchup against Alabama, so I wanted to add a little bit here on the Tar Heels to win outright.
UNC showed us something in digging out of a big early hole against Michigan State, not just taking the lead by halftime, but going on to blow Sparty out in a game a lot of the sharp money was on the underdog. Now the balanced Heels get a matchup against a ‘Bama squad that isn’t playing all that well, and plays zero defense to begin with.
The Tide surrendered 96 in the first round to Charleston, then probably should’ve lost to Grand Canyon. Against the Lopes, ‘Bama scored just 72 points, but pulled off the win due to historically poor free throw and three-point shooting from GCU. We’re not going to see that from the Tar Heels.
Expect Carolina to handle business on both sides of the ball, while Alabama’s 112th-ranked defense lets them down.
Illinois vs. Iowa State
Iowa State ML (-122)
I haven’t bet this one yet, and the money since open has gone against me. But if I get involved it’ll be Cyclones or pass. I’m a bit surprised at how quickly the narrative has changed here with people going against ISU. Illinois is dangerous offensively, but just advanced to the Sweet 16 with wins over South Dakota State and Duquesne — which rank 135 and 91 in Kenpom. Iowa State ranks sixth in Kenpom and has the top-ranked defense in the country (yes, ISU ranks above Houston).
If there’s a team that can slow Illinois from a hot streak, the Cyclones are that team. ISU just got a clunker out of the way, but the matchup against Wazzu and its 27th-ranked defense kind of called for that type of outcome. Illinois is 81st in defensive efficiency, potentially opening the gates for the Cyclones to get back on track offensively.
Still on the fence if I’ll fire on this one, but I think the price is moving in the wrong direction.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
