We’re well on the road to the 2024 NFL Draft in April and we’ve crossed a major milestone with the start of free agency this week. We’ve already seen several marquee players find new homes and these moves will play a major role in how teams approach the draft next month.
While free agency is still ongoing, I’ll offer my first mock draft in the wake of these initial moves being made.
Like my post-Combine mock, I have Chicago taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick as it looks more likely they’ll select him with each passing day. As of this writing, the team has yet to deal current starter Justin Fields and it appears that the trade market for him is evaporating as potential suitors are finding QBs. Understandably, other teams are hesitant to commit to him considering that he is entering the final year of his rookie contract. That leaves open the possibility that the Bears could enter training camp with both Williams and Fields on the roster, but we’ll see how the next few weeks play out.
There is growing consensus over Washington taking LSU QB Jayden Daniels at No. 2 and I’ve fallen in line by projecting him there over North Carolina’s Drake Maye. The Commanders potentially tipped their hand by signing veteran Marcus Mariota to a one-year deal, paving the way for their new franchise QB to have another former Heisman Trophy winner guiding him through his rookie year. That leaves New England to take Maye at No. 3, with veteran Jacoby Brissett returning to the organization to back him up. The Pats need a franchise QB and this was set into motion when they ended the failed Mac Jones era by shipping him to Jacksonville.
At No. 5, I have the Chargers taking LSU wideout Malik Nabers and this move comes on the heels of the reports that they are open to trading/cutting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to become cap-compliant. No move has been made as of this writing and while there’s a strong chance of Allen being retained, I’ll predict that they’ll move on from Williams and immediately draft his replacement. I had them select Georgia tight end Brock Bowers in my last mock and the domino effect of this move leads to Bowers falling 10 spots to Indianapolis at No. 15.
In my previous mock, I refused to buy the hype of Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy as a first-round pick, let alone being taken in the top 10 like others are projecting. And then Denver decided to eat a record $85 million in dead cap by cutting Russell Wilson, who then signed a veteran minimum with Pittsburgh. Sean Payton and the Broncos are now trying to dig themselves out of a gigantic mess and don’t have many viable options at QB, leaving them no choice but to select the prospect from Ann Arbor at No. 12. There’s potential for them to trade up to avoid a team like Minnesota beating them to the punch. But they may not have to worry about that with the Vikings deciding the kick the tires on Sam Darnold.