The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Road team ATS following a loss
Road teams have been bouncing back well after losses recently, going 21-8 ATS (72.41%) over the last seven days. Over the last 30, they’re 53-41 ATS (56.38%).
Now, favorites have been slightly better in this setting, but there’s a much larger sample size of underdogs that have been in this spot (both over the last seven days and the last 30). Road favorites are 6-2 ATS following a loss over the last seven days and 17-13 ATS over the last 30. Road underdogs are 15-6 in this setting over the last seven days and 36-28 over the last 30.
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Three games fit this system on Monday:
- MEM @ BKN
- WAS @ UTA
- CHI @ SAC
Surprise, surprise: The Wizards are my preferred play. They’re one of the best teams in the league as road underdogs at 19-12-1 ATS. On top of that, this is the 29th time this system has been in play for Washington. In the prior 28 games, the Wizards are 17-10-1 ATS. Whereas, Memphis is 6-7 ATS in this setting and Chicago is 5-7
NOTE: No table laying out potential plays for this system throughout the week because this play is dependent on the outcome of the road team’s previous game.
SYSTEM PICK FOR MARCH 4
WAS +6
SYSTEM: Under on total West is home vs. East
This system hasn’t been much to look at over the course of the season at 81-74-3, but it’s in the midst of a significant spike. Over the last 30 days, the under is 21-11-1 in these games.
And if you check the game log within the system, you’ll see the real surge has been since February 10. The under is 18-6-1 in this setting since that slate.
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Two games fit this system on Monday:
- UTA vs. WAS
- SAC vs. CHI
Whether or not De’Aaron Fox returns to the mix, CHI-SAC gets my nod as the preferred play. Chicago and Sacramento are two of the better teams to the over this season. Yet somehow this total is set at under 230 — that’s far too low for a Kings game. They’re averaging a total near 240, while the Bulls are around 225.
SYSTEM MATCHES: Under on total West is home vs. East
| 3/4 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 3/8 | 3/9 | 3/10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/4 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 3/8 | 3/9 | 3/10 |
| UTA vs. WAS | DAL vs. IND | UTA vs. CHI | DAL vs. MIA | MEM vs. ATL | LAC vs. CHI | LAC vs. MIL |
| SAC vs. CHI | GSW vs. MIL | PHO vs. TOR | OKC vs. MIA | PHO vs. BOS | ||
| DEN vs. BOS | LAL vs. MIL | POR vs. TOR | ||||
| GSW vs. CHI |
SYSTEM PICK FOR MARCH 4
CHI-SAC under 228
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
