The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Road underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day
This hasn’t been the hottest system out of the break, but it’s been solid. What’s more important is this play is 13-10 (56.52%) coming out of the break and that’s not where this play starts and ends. Over the last 30 days, this play is 47-34 (58.02%).
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Six games fit this system on Tuesday:
- DAL @ CLE
- PHI @ BOS
- UTA @ ATL
- SAS @ MIN
- CHA @ MIL
- HOU @ OKC
Philadelphia is the only team that has thrived in this setting at 6-3 ATS. Specifically, when playing on one day of rest as a road dog, the 76ers are 5-1 ATS.
Taking on the Celtics in Boston isn’t an easy task, but the C’s are just 15-14 ATS as home favorites. Moreover, Boston is only 11-11 ATS when playing at home against a rested dog. Additionally, Boston is 2-3 ATS when playing as a home favorite on two days rest.
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Road underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day
| 2/27 | 2/28 | 2/29 | 3/1 | 3/2 | 3/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/27 | 2/28 | 2/29 | 3/1 | 3/2 | 3/3 |
| DAL @ CLE | MEM @ MIN | MIL @ CHA | CLE @ DET | ATL @ BKN | PHI @ DAL |
| PHI @ BOS | SAC @ DEN | UTA @ ORL | DAL @ BOS | UTA @ MIA | LAC @ MIN |
| UTA @ ATL | LAL @ LAC | ATL @ BKN | POR @ MEM | DEN @ LAL | GSW @ BOS |
| SAS @ MIN | GSW @ NYK | SAC @ MIN | HOU @ PHX | DET @ ORL | |
| CHA @ MIL | OKC @ SAS | IND @ NOP | CHA @ TOR | ||
| HOU @ OKC | HOU @ PHX | IND @ SAS | |||
| MIA @ DEN | NYK @ CLE | ||||
| WAS @ LAL | OKC @ PHX |
SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 27
PHI +12
SYSTEM: Under on total when road favorites are coming off a loss
This play has gotten a nice boost out of the break. Over the last 30 days, the under is 19-11-1 in this setting after going 5-0 after the All-Star Game.
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Two games fit this system on Tuesday:
- GSW @ WAS
- NOP @ NYK
The Pelicans are 2-1 to the under in this setting. The Warriors are only 3-2 to the over, so neither favorite has provided much in the way of a sample size in this setting.
Looking at the two underdogs, that makes both of these options easier to attack. The Wizards are 15-9 to the under as home dogs. The Knicks are 6-2 to the under in this setting. The edge for my preferred play goes to the Wizards because of the total set for their game. Washington is 14-10 to the under against Tuesday’s total when playing as a home dog.
SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 27
GSW-WAS under 242.5 points
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
