The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
“Be cognizant” … is a statement we’re likely to hear at some point this week, particularly as the players walk to the 15th tee box to hit their first shot in the famous bear trap. The Cognizant Classic (formerly and forever the Honda Classic) is back and for viewers, that means lots of water balls and (potentially) lots of final hole drama.
This event has changed names for 2024 but the venue (PGA National) remains the same and the tougher par 71 (formerly a par 70) has helped keep this tournament towards the top of the favorites for many fans — even despite the field often lacking in star power.
The field this week doesn’t have a ton of big names but world number 2 Rory McIlroy will be teeing it up. The 2012 winner of this event hasn’t played PGA National since 2018 but will head the field this week alongside peers like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Rickie Fowler. The current field is set at 144 players, and the event will feature the PGA TOUR’s regular cut-line rule, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend after Friday.
Even though the course has changed a bit for 2024, this has typically been a tough event and venue for scoring, with lots of water in play and unpredictable winds. Don’t expect big daily fantasy golf totals since birdies will be at an absolute premium.
The Course
PGA National—Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Par 71, 7,147 yards; Greens: Bermudagrass
PGA National was redesigned in 1990 by Jack Nicklaus and has been the host of this event since 2007. The course always plays as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR and was ranked the fifth-hardest venue on the PGA TOUR in 2019 and the third-hardest in 2021. To give you some idea of what’s in store this week: since 2012, the winning score at PGA National has failed to pass 10-under-par on all but two occasions. Calmer conditions allowed the winner to reach 14-under last year but the wind and weather can be a big factor with the stadium course environment and the late winter date.
As for setup, PGA National now plays as a par 71 but will still play at just under 7,200 yards in length. For 2024 the 10th hole (previously a longer par 4) was lengthed by 20 yards, or so, and turned into a par 5. It will now play as one of the easiest holes on the course and will likely allow us to see another mid-teens winner in terms of scoring.
The greens are still Tifeagle Bermuda and can play quite fast if the weather gets hot enough and will be even tougher to hold if the wind is up. Green in Regulation %’s at this event are some of the lowest we’ll see all season and typically fall 5-7% under the PGA TOUR average. As such, PGA National, as you might expect, puts a huge premium on ball-striking and rewards players who can pound the greens, hole-after-hole, and also possess the short game necessary to navigate the plethora of greenside bunkers.
While the venue often gets compared to places like TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town its best comparable on the PGA is likely TPC Southwind, the host of the FedEx St. Jude Classic and one of the tougher par 70’s on the schedule. Daniel Berger (winner of Southwind 2016 and 2017, playoff loser PGA National 2015) and Sepp Straka (winner of PGA National 2022 and playoff loser TPC Southwind 2022) are a couple of the players who provide good links between the two venues.
For statistical purposes, solid overall ball striking is key to avoiding big numbers but it’s generally an approach where players can make up the most ground. Four of the last five winners at PGA National — Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, and Matt Jones — gained over +5.0 strokes on their approaches for the week and most of the winners here have also tended to be very positive in their around the green stats for the week.
Overall, it’s a week to emphasize recent form (mainly ball-striking and around-the-green play), and also use course history as a solid tiebreaker when deciding between players. Players can have success at PGA National out of the gate but it’s also been a venue that has rewarded those who understand the patience needed to survive such a demanding venue.
2024 weather outlook: The good news is that it looks like the air temperature will be around 75F for most of the event, making it sunny but not adversely hot. As per usual with PGA National and this event, wind will be a factor. Day one has the wind rising throughout the day to where we’re likely to see gusts between 10-15 mph in the afternoon. That wind continues into Friday where gusts are expected to be around 15-20 mph until later in the day when it starts to die down. The Friday afternoon starters may benefit a touch if this forecast holds as they’ll likely also see milder wind on Thursday morning. PGA National is a venue where serious wave splits can and do happen so watching the forecast is important this week for DFS as wave stacking one side (likely the Thursday AM crowd) could gain you a big advantage.
Last 5 winners
2023—Chris Kirk -14 (over Eric Cole playoff)
2022—Sepp Straka -10 (over Shane Lowry -9)
2021—Matt Jones -12 (over Brandon Hagy -7)
2020—Sungjae Im -6 (over Mackenzie Hughes -5)
2019—Keith Mitchell -9 (over Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka -8)
Winning Trends
- Seven of the last 10 winners ranked 44th or better in sand save percentage in the year of their victory at PGA National. (2017 champion Rickie Fowler was ranked first in this stat.)
- Nine of the past 13 winners had a finish of 13th or better at this event before their win.
- 12 of the last 13 winners here had made the cut at PGA National at least once before their win.
- Five of the last six winners of The Honda Classic had a top-10 West Coast finish on the season before winning this event. (Seven of the last seven Honda winners had produced a T16 or better on the West Coast.)
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Chris Kirk (14-under par)
2023 lead-in form (MC-3rd-3rd-MC-T64)
SG: OTT—+2.2
SG: APP—+6.3
SG: TTG—+9.3
SG: ATG—+0.7
SG: PUTT—+5.6
- Strokes Gained: Approach and Approach Proximity are both stats to emphasize at PGA National, and most of the winners and top finishers gain the majority of their strokes against the field in this area.
- 2020 and 2021 winners Sungjae Im and Matt Jones both gained over +5.0 strokes on approach, while last year’s winner Chris Kirk relied even more on his approaches gaining 6.3 on approach alone in his win.
- Straka (2022) was a bit of an anomaly in that he gained more strokes putting and off the tee than he did on approach or around the green.
- That said, the last seven winners at PGA National all gained strokes around the green for the week, and three of the last five — Mitchell, Im, and Jones — gained +3.5 strokes ATG, or more, for the week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Byeong Hun An +2500 and $9,500
Comparables:
Adam Svensson +5000 and $7,700
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Sepp Straka ($8,600; best finishes: win-2022, T5-2023): The Austrian has often saved his best for this week. His first career win came at PGA National in 2022 and he followed up that win with a T5 here last season as well. Straka’s elite iron play and penchant for tougher conditions make him a regular consideration for this event.
2. Sungjae Im ($9,700; best finishes: win-2020, T8-2021): Im has played PGA National five times now and landed finishes of first and T8 over the last four years. He did miss the cut at PGA National in 2022 but often saves his best golf for the Florida swing. It wouldn’t be shocking if he put a slow start to 2024 behind him this week.
3. Shane Lowry ($9,300; best finish: 2nd – 2022, T5 – 2023): Lowry is another player who often finds his footing in Florida. The Irishman is 4/4 in terms of made cuts at this event the last four seasons and has posted top-five finishes at PGA National the last two years.
4. Alex Noren ($8,200; best finish: T5 -2022, 3rd – 2018): Noren has come close at this event on a couple of different occasions and has finished inside the top five at this event in two of his past four starts at PGA National. He came close to winning over the fall and certainly could pop up as a contender again this week.
5. Byeong Hun An ($9,500; best finish: T2 – 2020, T5 – 2018): An has played well in Florida throughout his career, even grabbing a win at the LECOM Classic while on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021. He’s played PGA National five times in his career and finished inside the top five twice.
Recent Form
1. JT Poston ($9,800, T10 – MC – T20): Poston comes in off another solid effort at the Genesis. The American is top 10 in SG: ATG and PUTT stats over the last 50 rounds.
2. Tom Hoge ($7,900, 8th – T17- T6): Hoge is killing the ball right now and has three consecutive top-20 finishes. Strangely enough, he’s never had success at PGA National but that could change this season.
3. Luke List ($8,100, 2nd – MC – T26): List finished 2nd in his last start and has been solid outside of one MC. The American lost in a playoff at this event way back in 2017.
4. Cameron Young ($10,700, T16 – T8): Young has put together two quality starts after a slow beginning to his 2024 season. He gained over 3.0 strokes ball-striking his last time out at Riviera.
5. Mark Hubbard ($7,500, T48 – T53 – T4): Hubbard had a top-5 finish at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and also flashed some elite iron play to begin the year. He’s been very consistent at PGA National making him an interesting value add for GPPs.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Mitchell and Straka solid bargains
It’s hard to say what Rory McIlroy ($12,200) will do this week after skipping this event for half a decade and with some solid former champions in the 8.5k to 9k range I don’t mind balanced cash game builds at all. Keith Mitchell ($9,000) has played well to start the season and has put well on these greens pretty much every time he’s played them. Straka has been more inconsistent this year but his record at PGA National is flawless with a win and a top-five the last two seasons. Below them, Adam Svensson ($7,700) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) are two other names that look like they offer decent value. Both men have played well at this venue in the past and have each posted at least one top-10 finish already in 2024.
Tournaments: Byeong Hun An can break through
The price for Byeong Hun An ($9,500) this week should keep his ownership levels low enough to make him a solid GPP target. The South Korean has won in Florida before and has competed well around PGA National and Jack Nicklaus designs in general (lost in a playoff at the Memorial in 2018). He’s coming off a solid week of ball-striking at Riviera and should be ready to get after it at this more favorable venue. If you’re looking for deeper value I also like Ben Griffin ($6,800) this week who put up a top 10 a few starts ago at the American Express. He’s shown he has what it takes to manage his way around these trickier tracks which require elite ball-striking. He was also T21 at this event last season. Other potential GPP targets include Maverick McNealy ($7,100 – see below), Brandon Wu ($6,600), and Michael Kim ($6,400).
MY PICK: Russell Henley ($10,200)
This event/venue has only seen a couple of repeat winners throughout its history. The last person to win at PGA National twice was Padraig Harrington, who achieved the feat exactly a decade after his first win. Henley (who won the event the year prior to Harrington in 2014) will now enter the 2024 event with a chance at repeating Harrington’s success.
The four-time PGA winner has had a nice start to his season recording a T4 at the Sony Open to begin his year and a T24 at the Genesis a couple of weeks ago where he gained 3.4 strokes on approach. Henley has shown his usual consistent ball-striking across all levels but his around-the-green game has also been a huge asset for him over his last 10 or so events as he ranks fifth in around-the-green stats over the last 24 rounds of play.
A consistent par 4 scorer who ranks second in strokes gained on par 4s — and on par 4s from 450-500 yards — over the last 24 rounds, Henley has always been a course horse who tends to come alive on these shorter par 70 venues, where elite ball-striking wins out over pure power. He was T6 at TPC Southwind last season (another tough par 70 with smaller Bermuda greens), 2nd at the Wyndham, and then put up the aforementioned T4 at Waialae in January. Overall, he has four top-eight finishes over his last nine PGA starts and has seen three of those four results come at course that carry solid correlation with this week’s venue. At just over 10k in price, he makes for a good pay-up target in DraftKings DFS contests
MY SLEEPER: Maverick McNealy ($7,100)
McNealy has looked solid to start 2024. The American has been working his way back from an injury layoff since last fall and his game has started to take shape. After a couple of slow starts to begin the season, he landed a T6 in Phoenix and then followed that up with a T13 in Mexico last week where he shot 66 in the final round and gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in the process.
The ball-striking with McNealy is often inconsistent, so the fact he’s been on an uptick there since some swing changes is noteworthy. Additionally, while he’s typically thought of as a West Coast specialist, he’s also become a very solid start/bet around the more technical par 70/71 layouts. He’s landed top 10 finishes at both Hilton Head and Waialae CC and was also 11th at PGA National on debut back in 2020, gaining 5.1 strokes on approach for the week — his best mark ever in that stat for a single event since he turned pro.
Considering he’s still an elite putter and leads this field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds, McNealy looks like a solid value at just $7,100 for DFS. For betting his placement odds on the DraftKings Sportsbooks look solid as well at +400 for a top 20 and +900 for a top 10.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
