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System: Under on total in Divisional games
In the Wild Card Round, our systems each went 2-1 (4-2 overall), with the preferred plays going 2-0 (PHI-TB under and CLE-HOU over). The under was the move in the NFC, while the over was the way to go in the AFC — which is on-par with how those two plays have performed the last couple seasons.
That’s not the case this round. The approach is the same for all four games.
All divisional round games over the last three postseasons have combined to go 9-3 to the under. The play is 5-1 in AFC games as opposed to 4-2 in NFC games. So, slight edge to the AFC, but both success rates are very strong. And I always opt for a larger sample size when it still paints an accurate picture.
Here’s how this weekend’s underdogs have performed to the under when playing as underdogs since Week 1:
- HOU 6-4
- GB 4-7
- TB 8-4
- KC 2-0
Here’s how this weekend’s favorites have performed to the under when playing as favorites since Week 1:
- BAL 8-6
- SF 7-10-1
- DET 5-10
- BUF 9-6
BAL-HOU jumps out instantly as a strong option, but it’s also worth noting the Texans are 3-2 to the over when playing as an underdog against a non-divisional AFC opponent. The Ravens are 5-1 to the under when playing as the favorite against a non-divisional AFC team, so this is still one of the better options of the bunch.
However, TB-DET gets the nod as this week’s preferred play. Both the Lions and Bucs saw the under hit in the Wild Card round. As a result, Detroit’s record to the under when playing a non-divisional NFC team is 4-3 (3-3 as a favorite), and Tampa’s is 5-2 (5-1 as an underdog).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
