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Fantasy Golf Picks — 2023 BMW Championship Picks, Preview, Predictions

Pat Mayo makes his 2023 BMW Championship picks while previewing the course, key stats and trends for this week’s event.

FedEx St. Jude Championship - Round Three Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2023 BMW Championship Picks week’s event at Olympia Fields CC.

2023 BMW — Picks & Preview | Info & Research | Stats/Tools


2023 BMW — DraftKings Picks | DraftKings Strategy | Own Projections

2023 Fantasy FootballRB Tiers | WR Tiers | RB List | WR List | Injury Severity

2022 BMW Championship: Field

Field: 50 Players | No Cut
First Tee: Thursday, August 17
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay

2023 BMW Championship: Course

Course: Olympia Fields CC (North)
Yardage: 7,366
Par: 70
Greens: Bentgrass (with Poa)
Average Green Size: 5,238 sq. ft.
Hole With Water: 8
Bunkers: 91

Par 3’s (4) - Average distance: 205 yards

-The tough #8 (254 yards) carries the highest bogey rate of any hole on this course (32.2%) and yields birdie just 7.2% of the time (average score: 3.26).

Par 4’s (12) - Average distance: 443 yards

-If you’re going to make up ground on Par 4’s, it’ll come early. The two easiest 4’s for the week come within the first four holes (Holes 2 and 4).

-You better get warmed up on 4’s when you have the chance early... #18 (498 yards) is the toughest hold on the course, holding a bogey-or-worse rate nearly 5x the birdie-or-better rate.

Par 5’s (2) - Average distance: 616 yards

-These are two of the three easiest holes on the course, both with a birdie-or-better rate north of 26%. That said — be careful on #15 (605 yards) as it holds a bogey-or-worse rate of 18.1%.

2023 BMW Championship: Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Proximity 175-200 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stats powered by

2023 BMW Championship: Past Winners

2022: Patrick Cantlay -14
2021: Patrick Cantlay -27
2020 (Olympia Fields): Jon Rahm -4

Olympia Fields Details

2020: Jon Rahm (-4, playoff win over Dustin Johnson)

  • Rahm was eight shots back after Thursday, but he improved every round and closed with a 64 to get into that playoff.
  • As usual, a hot putter showed the ability to mask flaws. Brendon Todd and Brian Harman were the top-2 putters for the week and cashed top-12 paychecks despite losing ground on the field tee-to-green.

-10 of the top-11 finishers on the final leaderboard gained proximity with their long irons (200+ yards).


What played well? Here are the 2022 trends for the Top-10 finishers at this event last season who are still full-time PGA guys …

-None were top-25 putters

-Five were top-15 in ball-striking

-Only one (Corey Conners) was top-50 in Fairways Gained

-Nine were top-50 in P4: 400-450 (five of them were top-25)

-Nine gained off-the-tee in over 65% of their rounds

-Seven were 26th or better in SG: Par 3

-Only three ranked higher in opportunities gained than bogeys avoided


2020: The top of the board decided most contests. Rahm and DJ were the two most expensive golfers in the field and they paid off. Great. If you tried to penny-pinch, you were burned (Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau were the next two on the price board, neither finished top-20 on the DK leaderboard).

-If you paid up for those guys, you were forced down the board and that worked — six of the top-11 DK scorers cost you no more than $7,500 (three of them were sub-$7,000).

-You can score DK points without placing great. Sebastian Munoz was four strokes better than Joel Dahmen on the actual leaderboard, but they tied in DK points.

2023 BMW Championship: Picks

Byeong-Hun An (Ben An)

If I asked you who the Top 5 drivers on TOUR are at the moment, you’d get most, then whiff on Ben An. Although he can be inconsistent with his irons, the driver is dialed in. When you’re searching for the non-elites in this field you need to find those with a few elite skills — driving and around the green for An — recent form and viability on difficult courses. We all know An can putt himself out of a tournament, so if we can dodge that (he’s been better recently fwiw) he can actually build on his 2020 Olympia Fields performance this time around (T-12 finish).

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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Podcast of the Year and was a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.

Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Sports Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Traditional Season Long Fantasy).

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.