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System: NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent
The only game that applied to this system was MIN-LV in Week 14, which resulted in a push thanks to the game turning into a rock fight. Another NFC North team is in this setting, and they’re actually the lone fit for this trending system.
The Lions have ballooned to -4.5 favorites after opening as 2-point favs. Either way, they are in a setting which NFC favorites have covered 59.26% of the time this season.
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Additionally, the Lions enter this week fresh off a loss. NFC favorites coming off a loss are 10-5-1 ATS against AFC teams. And while this scenario was a spot to fade NFC teams throughout 2022 (4-9-1 ATS), the system had a hit rate of 68.4% in 2021.
System: Under on total of AFC non-divisional games when home team is the underdog
The under has hit 58.54% of the time this season when the home team has been an underdog. Over the last four weeks, the play has only gone 11-11, but this is a system that could maintain its season-long rate. In 2022, it had a 65% success rate. It didn’t do as well in 2021, but a 55% hit rate isn’t going to scare me off. There are five games that fit that system this week, but there’s a subsystem I want to lock in on.
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AFC games that feature a home underdog this season are 20-10 to the under. That fits two games in Week 15, both of which I like equally:
- JAX vs. BAL
- NE vs. KC
What’s even more appealing is neither game is a divisional contest. When the home team is the underdog in an AFC divisional game this season, the under is 9-6. Now, that 60% success rate is nothing to scoff at. However, a 73.5% hit rate is far more appealing, and that’s the rate the under is hitting at when the home team is an underdog in an AFC conference game between non-division opponents (11-4).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
