I had a disappointing Week 11 with a lot of weight on the Chiefs, and that offense did not come through for me at home. I think Week 12 might be even more difficult, so I’ll tread lightly, and write up some leans that I may get around to as well. Here’s what I like for bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 12 is 50-44-1 (-5.05-units)
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
6-Point Teaser: DET -1.5/SF PK (-120) — 1-unit
The Lions put themselves in a hole at home last week against the Bears, but managed to find their way out of it late. Now they host the Packers on a short week with Green Bay riding high off a win over the Chargers. The Chargers were pathetic defensively in that one, and made some massive mistakes on offense to also give the game away. The Lions will be much better on both sides of the ball at home, leaving the Packers in a pretty tough spot to go on the road and win.
The number on the Niners ballooned, so we’ll need to tease it. But San Francisco owned Seattle last season, even when the Seahawks were playing their best — going 3-0 over Seattle if we include the playoff win. Now the Seahawks are playing some of their worst football in a while, and the Niners are looking to makeup ground for that losing streak they had while many of their key guys were injured.
New England Patriots at New York Giants
UNDER 35.5 (-110) — 2.5-units
I gave this play out in my Week 11 article, knowing I wanted to get ahead of a number I thought would drop. Even with the Giants scoring 31 points last week, the number is still declining. You can find the play in last week’s article here, but I’m still good with it down to 33.5. Here’s my analysis from last week:
The Patriots are on bye after playing in Germany last week, but I want to get out ahead of this one. We’re going to get an all-time gross game next week, when the Giants and Patriots battle it out for draft position.
It appears this matchup will be Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe against Tommy DeVito in a slog between the two worst offenses in football. Think Army vs. Navy here.
The Patriots are 7-3 to the under this season, while the Giants are 8-2 to the under (prior to playing Washington in Week 11). The offensive numbers are astounding …
The Giants average the fewest points per game in the NFL at 11.8, and that number somehow drops to lower than a touchdown in home games this season — 6.8 PPG. The Patriots average the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 14.1, and that number drops to 11.6 in road games.
This one is going to be as gross as it gets, and this “low” total isn’t set nearly low enough to keep me away from betting it more than a week ahead of kickoff.
Leans
I may or may not fire on these, and will post to Twitter if I do so. These are plays that I feel are the right sides, but writing this article on Tuesday on the holiday week, I feel I still need time to work on and see if they are ultimately plays.
Steelers ML (-118) — Didn’t have this game on my radar at all, but with Pittsburgh firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada we could see a revived offense here. Look for the Steelers to run some new stuff that jolts this offense a bit, especially if Cincy isn’t prepared.
Eagles -3 or better/OVER 48.5 — I was prepared to back the Eagles in a bounce-back spot here coming off the loss to the Chiefs, but they dug deep for the win. Still lean to Philly on the short week, but may prefer the total now. Both of these passing offenses rank top-seven in the NFL, while the secondaries are dinged up and have been burned all season.
Ravens -3 or better — The Chargers are a fade until further notice. Poorly coached team that just can’t seem to get it together, and now have the top-seed in the AFC coming in with a long week to prepare following the TNF win.
Texans TT O23.5 (-120) — I think Houston is the side at home over Jacksonville, but i’m more confident in CJ Stroud and the Texans continuing to score. This number is right on the mark for Houston, which averaged 23.8 points this season, but the number does jump to 26 in home games. The passing offense ranks second in the NFL in yards per game, and has produced 369 per game over the last four games. Put that up against Jacksonville’s 29th-ranked pass defense and we should see some points here from the home team.
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View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
