NFL Week 11 gave us a big AFC matchup on TNF, but the Sunday card is a scary one. I very well may sit it out, but do have a big play on MNF where we get a Super Bowl rematch of Eagles vs. Chiefs. But it won’t be just that game for me, I have some lookahead spots I want to play on, as well a future in the AFC. Here’s what I like for bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 11 (including the CIN/BAL game on TNF) is 50-41-4 (+0.05-units). Been playing from behind the whole season, but finally back to even after a few good weeks. Let’s look to finish strong.
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
KC -2.5 (-110) — 2.5-units
Big-time game on MNF with a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl. The Eagles will be out for revenge off their loss, but it’s a tough ask to go to Arrowhead Stadium and get a win — particularly with the Chiefs off a bye.
Going back to his days in Philly, Andy Reid has always been the master of the bye week. Including the postseason, Reid is 27-4 off a bye week in his career, and even gets an extra day here with the Monday kick.
The Eagles are also off a much needed bye, so they should be healthier than they were when they were squeaking out wins prior to the time off. But this is going to be a difficult matchup for them. The Chiefs haven’t played their best football yet, and out of the bye week just might be when we see them do so.
This is the best defense Patrick Mahomes has ever had to play with, which should give Philly’s offense some issues, particularly in this road atmosphere. While the Eagles are fantastic up front, this secondary has been an issue. Philly now ranks 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, and have been coming undone of late — giving up well over 300 passing yards per game in their last three outings.
This is a get-right spot for Mahomes and the passing attack, and I expect the defense to slow Jalen Hurts and company.
AFC Conference Winner: KC (+190) — 2-units
I like the Chiefs on Monday, but I also think they have a lot going their way to finish this season very strong. The offense is expected to take a step forward, and the defense is the best it’s been during Mahomes’ tenure.
Meanwhile in the AFC, we have the Ravens suffering some meaningful injuries on TNF — most notably Mark Andrews potentially out for the season. Obviously, Joe Burrow also appears to be dealing with something serious, and the Bengals, like the Bills, just dropped to 5-5.
There appears to be a clear path opening up here for the Chiefs, who are favored to land the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Assuming they can hold onto that, Kansas City would have two home games to reach the Super Bowl. Good time to buy-in.
New England Patriots at New York Giants (Week 12)
UNDER 35.5 (-110) — 2.5-units
The Patriots are on bye after playing in Germany last week, but I want to get out ahead of this one. We’re going to get an all-time gross game next week, when the Giants and Patriots battle it out for draft position.
It appears this matchup will be Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe against Tommy DeVito in a slog between the two worst offenses in football. Think Army vs. Navy here.
The Patriots are 7-3 to the under this season, while the Giants are 8-2 to the under (prior to playing Washington in Week 11). The offensive numbers are astounding ...
The Giants average the fewest points per game in the NFL at 11.8, and that number somehow drops to lower than a touchdown in home games this season — 6.8 PPG. The Patriots average the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 14.1, and that number drops to 11.6 in road games.
This one is going to be as gross as it gets, and this “low” total isn’t set nearly low enough to keep me away from betting it more than a week ahead of kickoff.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.