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System: Home underdogs ATS
Nice and simple system here, and for a relatively simple reason.
This came to my attention because it’s gone 13-7-2 over the last four weeks. Obviously, a nice success rate. But it wasn’t until I looked at the season-long performance of this system that I wanted in.
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This play is only 27-28-5 on the season. However, this has not been a sub-.500 play over the last two seasons like it has been through the first 10 weeks. Last season, home dogs covered 55.3% of the time. The year before that, they only covered 50.9% of the time — but even that number indicates this play should remain on the upswing.
Here are the games this system applies to in Week 11:
- GB +3 vs. LAC
- CAR +10.5 vs. DAL
- LAR +1 vs. SEA
None of these three underdogs have been particularly good against the spread this season. The Rams have gained a point since opening as two-point dogs, which makes them appealing — probably more so on the moneyline, thought — but this movement continuing could also push them out of this system. And while expecting any team to win by 11-plus points is a tall task, Carolina did just lose to Chicago and Dallas can light it up. If the Panthers get more points, which seems possible after opening as 3.5-point dogs, then they could be trusted more easily.
That ultimately leads me to the Packers, who opened at 2.5 dogs and went a little above their current mark before settling back into 3.0. Since 2021, the Chargers have played as road favorites 11 times. In those games, they’ve only covered a three-point spread three times (and pushed twice).
System: Under on total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite
Almost every other week, we’ve talked about this system. But you don’t try to fix what isn’t broken. This play has had a 66.67% success rate over the last four weeks. On the season, it’s 20-10, which is also a 66.67% success rate.
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And as I’ve highlighted previously, this is a play that’s been very good since 2021. Last season, the under hit in this setting 64.4% of the time. In 2021, the under hit 71.1% of the time in this setting.
Here are the games this system applies to in Week 11:
- LAC @ GB
- HOU vs. ARI
- DEN vs. MIN
- KC @ PHI
KC-PHI is naturally intriguing because it’s a prime-time game. GB-LAC’s appeal is the fact those two teams have combined to go 5-2 to the under in non-conference games this season. But if you’re not looking to have two plays on GB-LAC, HOU-ARI is where I’m looking for a little let-down following an impressive return from Kyler Murray last game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
