The Trending NBA Betting Systems article from earlier in the week has been updated with a few plays, but we’re going to add a couple more here.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors
Grant Williams over 11.5 points +100
The under on Williams’ points prop has only hit once this season, and Williams has only gone under this number in one game. The exception to each instance was the same game, in which he only scored five points on six shot attempts. Not only was that a season-low in those two categories, but he also had a season-low in 3-point attempts (four).
Outside of that game, he’s logged at least eight shots every game and five 3-point attempts. While his 54.3% 3-point percentage isn’t sustainable, Williams has shot over 39.5% from deep each of the last two seasons. The dip likely won’t be abrupt but rather steady over time. With the volume he’s getting, this number remains a strong option night-to-night.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
(if he plays) Anthony Davis under 24.5 points -110
Marginal home underdogs have been getting after in the early going. They’re 10-6 on the season (62.5%) and 7-1 over the last week (87.5%).
Another system in play: home underdogs that didn’t play the previous day are 11-3 ATS against (78.57%) over the last seven days. Of course, covering doesn’t mean anything for us here. But, I value that with this straight-up play since the spread is on the smaller side. And while I typically prefer the conservative route, there are some other factors that lead to me liking Houston straight-up.
Of course, the Rockets are streaking. They just took consecutive games vs. Sacramento — who was without De’Aaron Fox, which is significant. Either way, they took advantage of the situation they were presented with.
Also, some of this game’s numbers have gone through its share of fluctuations. After opening at an even three points, this jumped up to four. But then it later dipped all the way to two before settling at the current number (as of writing) of 2.5. Naturally, the value on the moneyline went through fluctuations, as well. But unlike the spread, this number hasn’t worked its way back up to its opening +130 value.
Waiting on the Lakers’ decision surrounding Anthony Davis might be worth it to chase greater value or a more favorable spread if you prefer the safer route, but I still like Houston straight-up whether or not he’s on the floor. The Lakers are coming off a rough Florida trip. Even if Davis attempts to suit up, we all know how easily he can reaggravate an injury. And while Christian Wood is a great replacement and in a spot against an old team, the Rockets just slowed down Domantas Sabonis in consecutive games. Be it Davis or Wood out there, the Rockets are showing they can manage big men very well. (Follow @DKNetwork on Twitter or download the DK Live app for updates on Davis’ status.)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
