What if the craziest College Football Playoff situation possible happened just one year before we’re getting a 12-team playoff? Just for fun, and because we love the Sickos Committee on Twitter, we’re laying out some of the most chaotic 2023 scenarios that could unfold with four weeks remaining in the college football season.
Halloween might be over, but below is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s worst nightmare.
Scenario: Florida State + Washington + Texas all win out and win their conference championships
Assuming that some combination of Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State are taking at least two spots for their respective conferences. In this scenario, at least one conference champion gets left out — and it could theoretically be an undefeated Florida State or Washington.
The committee values strength of schedule, and they could put Texas ahead of one of these teams based on that criteria. No matter who FSU draws in Charlotte for the ACC title game, they will be a large favorite due to the overall weakness of the league.
And if the CFP decides to put both Michigan and Ohio State in like last year, or puts in Alabama and Georgia after an SEC Championship Game upset, two one-loss or zero-loss conference champions could theoretically miss their shots.
Scenario: Michigan loses to Penn State this weekend, but beats Ohio State… and Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship.
Could that Iowa defense come up with enough firepower to shut down Michigan/OSU/Penn State in a Big Ten Championship game? Let’s say the three biggest programs in the Big Ten East do a round robin — Michigan loses to Penn State but defeats OSU.
One assumes that the team who wins the tiebreaker and heads to the conference title game is a lock for a CFP bid, but there’s one more obstacle in the way. That’s right, it’s the Hawkeyes in Indy! One of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking No. 2 via SP+ as of right now!
Of course Penn State already laid a beating down on Iowa earlier this season, so this seems unlikely, but what if?? Does the committee then leave the Big Ten — including a conference championship and two one-loss, top-ranked teams — out entirely?
Oh you want more? We got MORE!
Scenario: James Madison is the only unbeaten team when the 2023 season ends
Yes, the Dukes don’t even have postseason eligibility right now. But what if they finish the 2023 season as the sole remaining undefeated team — aaand the NCAA finally caves to very appropriate public pressure and grants them their deserved postseason eligibility waiver.
Where do the Dukes end up? Could we see JMU in a New Year’s Six bowl as the best Group of Five champion?? That would actually be the likely scenario.
But what happens if even the one-loss teams all begin to take on water. Oregon gets throttled at upstart Arizona State by their former offensive coordinator. Louisville gets dirt-napped in the ACC title game. Ole Miss gets Egg Bowl’d again. Meanwhile the Dukes keep chugging through a competitive Sun Belt, and the Virginia team they beat keeps getting W’s in their league.
Could we find a way to see the Dukes as the No. 4 seed and put them in the Rose Bowl?? OK, that’s a bit much. We’re merely agents of chaos, not psychedelic merchants.
But leaving them out over an Air Force team that got shellacked at home by Army, or behind a Tulane team that could easily stub their toe at UTSA or in the AAC title game? That’s a bad look too.
Let the Dukes in on their merit, NCAA. They earned it, and you can put someone else in Myrtle Beach when you don’t have enough bowl eligible teams. This team has earned that NY6 slot.