Update October 20 12:15 p.m. After a third Speaker vote, this time the Ohio representative Jordan fails even further behind. After pulling himself out of the race, yesterday Jordan put himself up yet again for nomination, but lost even more ground within his caucus.
Final tally:
Hakeem Jeffries – 210 (100% of Democratic caucus, two absences)
Jim Jordan – 194
Others – 25
And the markets are starting to think it won’t happen for the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus. But make no mistake, the job to be third in line for the Presidency remains wide open.
Tom Emmer: Yes 29.0¢, No 94.5¢
Patrick McHenry: Yes 17¢, No 90.0¢
Steve Scalise: Yes 14.9¢, No 93.0¢
Kevin McCarthy: Yes 13.5¢, No 93.4¢
Jim Jordan: Yes 12.5¢, No 91¢
Kevin Hern: Yes 9.0¢, No 100¢
Hakeem Jeffries: Yes 6.9¢, No 98.0¢
Donald Trump: Yes 3.3¢, No 98.5¢
Update October 18 4:50 p.m. Jordan failed his second vote from the floor today, this time by two more votes than yesterday.
Hakeem Jeffries – 212 (100% of Democratic caucus)
Jim Jordan – 199
Others – 22
And the markets have reacted, with current Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry moving to the top of the board. How the market will react to a potential interim speaker that would have the backing of the Democrats could change the odds sufficiently. We won’t have a vote for a new Speaker or for any interim leader in the chair until noon tomorrow at the earliest.
Patrick McHenry: Yes 29.8¢, No 85.0¢
Tom Emmer: Yes 15.0¢, No 95.0¢
Kevin McCarthy: Yes 14.8¢, No 95.0¢
Jim Jordan: Yes 13¢, No 89.1¢
Kevin Hern: Yes .10¢, No 98.8¢
Steve Scalise: Yes 7.9¢, No 97¢
Hakeem Jeffries: Yes 7.0¢, No 98.0¢
Donald Trump: Yes 3.3¢, No 98.5¢
Update October 17 4:05 p.m. While most Republicans voted for Jim Jordan on the first ballot this afternoon, 20 members of the majority party voted for someone else.
Hakeem Jeffries – 212 (100% of Democratic caucus)
Jim Jordan – 200
Steve Scalise – 7
Kevin McCarthy – 6
Others – 7
At PolyMarket, here are the latest odds ahead of a second vote anytime, tentatively scheduled for Wednesday:
Latest update 5:28 p.m.
Patrick McHenry: Yes 39.0¢, No 93.9¢
Tom Emmer: Yes 29.9¢, No 92.3¢
Jim Jordan: Yes 26.9¢, No 88.5¢
Kevin Hern: Yes .20¢, No 100¢
Steve Scalise: Yes 10¢, No 98¢
Kevin McCarthy: Yes 8.0¢, No 96.7¢
Hakeem Jeffries: Yes 7¢, No 95¢
Donald Trump: Yes 3¢, No 99¢
On October 3, the Speaker of the House was voted out of the position for the first time in U.S. history. Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy was forced to vacate the Speaker position by a vote of 216-210. And while the chattering class had already begun discussing who might replace the oft-embattled California Republican, the leading candidate was McCarthy’s former deputy in Louisiana’s Steve Scalise.
But now it won’t be him, either, as on Thursday night Scalise removed himself from consideration for the top job in the U.S. House of Representatives.
McCarthy needed 15 ballots to take the job in January, and now just 10 months later the position that is third in line for the Presidency will continue to remain vacant for the first time due to the will of the House of Representatives.
Who will now take the gavel? The oddsmakers were prognosticating mere minutes after the ousting, but things have changed since Scalise is now out of the running.
And despite Stephen Colbert’s dreams…
DraftKings in the United States is unable to take action on who will be the next Speaker. But our friends at Betfair in Europe have these prices currently in what is a quite ill-liquid market, and at Polymarket, here are the current prices to take the gavel eventually. All prices are listed in cents:
Updated October 13, 4:00 p.m.
Jim Jordan: Yes 50¢, No 75¢
Tom Emmer: Yes 30¢, No 88.9¢
Patrick McHenry: Yes 15¢, No 97.9¢
Kevin Hern: Yes 14.9¢, No 95.7¢
Kevin McCarthy: Yes 5.9¢, No 96.7¢
Steve Scalise: Yes 2¢, No 99¢
Donald Trump: Yes 2.7¢, No 99¢
It appears Jordan is the favorite for now, but electing the man who lost a secret ballot vote of the Republican conference 113-99 to Scalise on Wednesday still seems unlikely. While the odds might not agree, the next Speaker might not be on this list at all for now.
We’ll keep you posted about odds available across the world as Congress currently sits in suspension until someone takes the chair.