As the 2023-24 NBA season approaches, the point guard spot remains the deepest when it comes to fantasy basketball. Because of this, it’s hard to decipher what a sleeper and a bust would be. We’ll go over a few sleeper and bust candidates relative to their ADP and our position ranking, reviewing why they might beat that projection or underperform.
Point guard sleepers
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
ESPN ADP: 46.1
DK Network ranking: 13th point guard, 34th overall
Our DK Network ranking has Murray higher than the consensus ADP on ESPN, so he’s going to make this list as a sleeper. The only real concern around the point guard is injury management, but the Nuggets might not have that luxury in a loaded West. Murray is closer to a 1A than a No. 2 to Nikola Jokic than some might realize. He averaged 20 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting just a shade under 40% from deep. As long as there’s no major injury setback, Murray will beat his ADP by a big margin.
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN ADP: 72.9
DK Network ranking: 24th point guard, 100th overall
Morant is being taken much higher than our ranking, so managers are banking on Morant being able to stay healthy after his 25-game suspension. However, the point guard hasn’t played more than 67 games in any NBA season so far. If we use this as the barometer for how much he’ll play, managers are only getting 46 or 47 games out of Morant this year. He’s still a great sleeper pick due to his production when he’s on the floor.
Point guard busts
De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
ESPN ADP: 26.7
DK Network ranking: 6th point guard, 15th overall
Fox is going to be an excellent fantasy player, and he’s ranked higher by DK Network than his ADP. However, there’s a chance this Kings offense isn’t as efficient as it was a season ago. Teams aren’t going to take Sacramento lightly and even if the Kings take a step up, it might not be Fox seeing the benefits. There’s a chance he drops off from last year’s play.
Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics
ESPN ADP: 62
DK Network ranking: 15th point guard, 44th overall
There’s a simple explanation for why Holiday might not come close to replicating his production with Milwaukee in Boston. At best, he’s the third scoring option on this team but that doesn’t take into account the adjustment period there will be. Derrick White is also going to be pushing for more playing time, and that could come at Holiday’s expense. The veteran is still going to be a good fantasy player, though he might not be as good as his DK Network ranking.