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College Football Week 7 picks, predictions against the spread

College Football Week 7 picks, predictions against the spread

Updated:

By: Collin Sherwin

College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.

Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 7 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Collin Sherwin: 2023 Record 9-8-1

North Carolina -3.5 vs. Miami

While no one has ever questioned the ability of Mario Cristobal to recruit elite talent, you have to question playing hard for this guy after one of the most inane losses in college football ever. Meanwhile UNC has steamrolled everything in the ACC so far, with Drake Maye solidifying himself as someone that won’t keep a seat warm at the 2024 NFL Draft for too long. This could get to 5.5 or higher and I’d still feel good, because Miami should be deservedly broken thanks to incompetent leadership.

Wyoming vs. Air Force Over 42

Stops are going to be hard to come by in this one. We have seen Air Force hang 39+ on four of their five opponents so far, and Wyoming has shown a raw efficiency in the run game despite their glacial pace. The Pokes are 124th team of 133 in pace facing… the 133rd team in the Falcons.

Won’t matter. Both teams will get about eight possessions, which will be more than enough to score seven times.

NC State +3.5 vs. Duke

Giving myself the hook here because that’s where I bet it, and I very much might need it. The Brennan Armstong Experiment is mercifully over in Raleigh, and MJ Morris takes over under center for good which should be enough to keep this close as the Blue Devils are without Riley Leonard.

The Wolfpack are solid against the run (3.0 ypc allowed), but can struggle in coverage. We’re thinking Duke backup Henry Belin IV, who has yet to throw a pass against an FBS opponent, might have a tough time taking advantage.

Nick Simon: 2023 Record 9-8-1

Oregon +3 vs. Washington

This is a very underrated rivalry and like Red River last week, this has the chance to be a Game of the Year candidate. Both teams are evenly matched across the board and it will be interesting to see how Nix and Penix does against two tough defense. Oregon does have the advantage in turnover margin and I’ll give them the edge there. Plus, Washington has only beaten Oregon once at home in the past two decades. Give me the Ducks to cover as a road underdog and win outright.

North Carolina -3.5 vs. Miami

Without doing any research, I’m fading Mario Cristobal. I can’t go on an expletive filled tirade here, but it’s idiotic losses like that one that can tank your team’s season. Get the Canes out of my face, Drake Maye and the Tar Heels roll at home here.

Michigan -33 vs. Indiana

Michigan has a strong case for being the most complete team in the country and it is doing what it’s supposed to be doing against a very weak schedule. The Wolverines absolutely vaporized Minnesota in their 52-10 drubbing last Saturday and it was another game where Harbaugh got to get his backups plenty of playing. Meanwhile, Indiana is bad, especially on offense with the unit ranked 99th in SP+. The firing of Walt Bell/promotion of Rod Carey at OC won’t matter at all here, I’m taking Michigan to cover this gigantic spread easily.

Grace McDermott: 2023 Record 6-10-2

West Virginia -3 vs. Houston

West Virginia is the most interesting team in the Big 12 right now. Undefeated in conference play, the Mountaineers have pulled off wins over Texas Tech and TCU — two teams that demolished Houston. The Cougars are having a bit of a shaky adjustment to life in the Power 5, and while I know the transitive property does not apply to college football, I think those wins are a good enough sign to bet WVU.

Alabama -20 vs. Arkansas

Alabama is going to eat Arkansas alive, unfortunately for the Razorbacks. The Tide is itching to get back to their regularly scheduled programming of blowing out conference opponents, and after a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, I don’t think Arkansas comes close. Alabama had a very shaky start to the season, but they seem to be over the hump now as Jalen Milroe continues to progress.

Texas A&M +3.5 vs. Tennessee

This Texas A&M team looks very different with Max Johnson at the helm than it did with Conner Weigman. While Tennessee can be a tough environment, the Aggies came close to beating Alabama last week and played an all-around solid game. The Vols have frankly not been tested much this season, and after that UT loss to Florida, I like A&M to show up looking for a avenging victory here.

Chris Landers: 2023 Record 6-7-2

Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC

Yes, I did watch Notre Dame get blitzed in primetime by Louisville. And yet, I still can’t shake the feeling that the Trojans are walking into a trap in South Bend. It’s largely because of one of my favorite mantras in handicapping: Styles, as they say, make fights, and while the Irish couldn’t keep Sam Hartman upright last Saturday they should have no trouble leaning on this extremely vulnerable Trojans front that just gave up 41 points and five TDs to Arizona backup QB Noah Fifita. This USC defense, to put it politely, is not about this life: We saw it in the Pac-12 title game last year against Utah, who paved them in the second half, and we’ll see it again against Audric Estime and Co. this week. The weather is supposed to be wet and windy at Notre Dame Stadium, which should turn this into a slog — exactly the kind of environment in which Marcus Freeman’s preferred ground and pound should thrive. At the end of a brutal gauntlet of games, I think the Irish get off the deck and get a major upset against a Trojans squad that’s been just asking to drop a game of late.

Wyoming +10.5 at Air Force

This one is all about pace: Both Air Force (triple-option service academy) and Wyoming (coached by Craig Bohl, a man who would outlaw the forward pass if he could) play sloooooooow, run-heavy styles, and that’s conducive to low-scoring, low-possession games. For example: Last year’s edition ended in a 17-14 final in which neither team cracked the 60-play mark, with the Cowboys scoring the home upset and holding the Falcons to just 171 yards rushing. I actually think Air Force is the better team and will get a win in this spot, but with two sturdy defenses — Wyoming just throttled Mikey Keene in a win over Fresno and gave Texas all they could handle for three quarters in Austin in September — and offenses that will bleed clock, I don’t think we’ll see enough points to justify a double-digit spread.

Oregon +3 at Washington

Good luck finding a meaningful edge in this matchup, and if that’s the case, give me the points — especially if I’m getting a full three. (Coincidentally, last year’s edition was also decided by a field goal.) This is mostly a value play, but I also do think the Ducks are well-suited to go into Seattle and get a win. Oregon’s strengths are 1) a ruthlessly efficient offense with Bo Nix at the controls (man, it will never not be weird to say that) and 2) one of the best pass defenses in the country. In case you hadn’t heard, both of those things will come in handy against a Washington team that has the best aerial attack in the country but is a bit vulnerable on the defensive side. The Huskies nearly messed around and lost at Arizona a couple of weeks ago, and I trust their defense slightly less — the only sliver of separation I can see between these two teams.

Chinmay Vaidya: 2023 Record 8-8-2

North Carolina -3.5 vs. Miami

The Tar Heels have a Heisman contender at the quarterback position and have gotten their best receiver back, while the Hurricanes have a coach who refuses to take knees for no particular reason. There’s no reason for me to back Miami in this spot.

Washington -3 vs. Oregon

These schools have split the last six meetings evenly after a long run of domination by the Ducks, but the Huskies are playing like a national title contender and are at home. Michael Penix Jr. has been waiting for his signature moment, and this could be it. I’ll take Washington to win this rivalry game and separate itself as we get closer to the first CFP rankings.

USC +2.5 vs. Notre Dame

I’ll be taking the Trojans on the moneyline (+120) and my recommendation if you’re taking a game line is to go with an alternate spread at USC +3.5 (-149) to protect against a late Irish field goal to win. Notre Dame simply hasn’t looked good over the last few weeks, while USC will be alert after nearly getting upset by Arizona a week ago. Even if the weather is a factor with rainy and windy conditions expected in South Bend, I’ll take USC’s offense to do enough to win this game.

Teddy Ricketson: 2023 Record 5-9-1

UNC -3.5 vs. Miami (-108)

It’s been a few days and it still doesn’t seem real how Miami lost to Georgia Tech last week. The sequence of events was bad enough, but really Miami was at home and it shouldn’t have even come down to the wire. I took UNC to cover last week and they won by 33. Look for Drake Maye to continue playing well under the lights of his home stadium.

Florida +2.5 vs. South Carolina (-110)

The Gamecocks are at home but are coming off a bye. Top wide receiver Juice Wells is doubtful to play. South Carolina has developed a semblance of a run game, but the lack of offensive weapons has been evident. The Gators have their bye week after this game and if they can shut down Xavier Legette as Tennessee did last week, they should cover.

Kansas -3 vs. Oklahoma State (-110)

Alright, we all know that Kansas football can’t have nice things. The second they get out to a solid win streak, they match up with then-No. 3 Texas on the road. The Jayhawks get blown out by nearly 30. Kansas responded with a dominant welcome to the Big 12 victory over UCF. Oklahoma State was able to get back in the win column last week over Kansas State, but I don’t think the Cowboys are able to cover in this one.