Took it very light in NFL Week 5, and that approach worked, finishing 4-1 on the week with a 2-1 Sunday and some wins on Thursday and Monday night. I only played one side last week, though, cashing in on the Niners. This week I have a few more sides, along with a prop for TNF. But as the week goes on and more player props trickle out, there could be more to come. Here’s what I like for bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 6 is 33-28-2 (-2.98-units).
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (TNF)
Isiah Pacheco OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 1.5-units
Wrote this up with full analysis in my TNF Best Bets Article — view it here.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
Zay Flowers OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — 1-unit
Lot of things working in Flowers’ favor here. We’ll start with a good matchup against Tennessee — one of the elite run defenses in the NFL, but ranks just 23rd in terms of passing yards allowed per game.
But this is more about just how involved the rookie has been in Baltimore’s offense, along with the insane growth in his average depth of target over the last couple of weeks. Twice in his first three NFL games, Flowers saw an ADOT of 3.5 of less (per Establish The Run). He still somehow managed plenty of production in those games, finishing with 78, 62 and 48 yards respectively.
The Ravens have opted to give Flowers more opportunities downfield the last two weeks though, finishing with an ADOT of 13.3 in Week 4 and 16.7 last week (per ETR). Flowers has now topped 55 receiving yards in four of five games this season, and still caught eight passes in the game he failed to go over, the routes just didn’t give him an opportunity to work downfield.
Given the recent bump in ADOT, the matchup against the Titans and a 28% target share this season, Flowers is in a terrific position to go over a very modestly set prop.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
IND +4.5 (-112) — 1-unit
This is partially a fade of what’s just an awful spot for the Jags, along with backing the Colts as underdogs in a matchup I like for them. We saw Indy hang strong at home in Week 1 against Jacksonville, just letting go of the rope in the final minutes to let the Jags escape with a win that was far closer than the scoreboard indicated. Gardner Minshew has been really solid with each opportunity he’s gotten this season, and now gets a chance for a little revenge in the town he first became known as an NFL QB — not to mention a revenge angle for this entire Colts team following the Week 1 loss.
Recent history has not been kind to the Jags when priced as home favorites, going 0-7 ATS the last seven times they’ve been in this spot. Five of those games have been since Trevor Lawrence took over the job, going 0-5 ATS and just 1-4 straight up in those games.
Jacksonville is sitting in a position we’ve never seen before in NFL history. They just played very well on a trip across the pond, which is one they’ve become accustomed to, winning and covering both games against the Falcons and Bills. But we’ve never seen a team play a two week road trip (even if it is their second home) in London. I’ll say the Jags are a little sluggish back on US soil and the hungry Colts take advantage.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
SF -3 (-110) — 1-unit (lookahead played from last week)
SF -4.5 (-110) — 1-unit (adding this week)
I’ve been playing Niners lookahead lines almost every week, and it seems to be working. This team just keeps looking better and better, and then the number grows. But this time around, I’ll buy back onto the 49ers and add to the play.
The defense is healthy and dominant, the offense has weapons all over the field, and the opposition has to be on top of their game to keep up with these heavy Super Bowl favorites. Yes, the Niners are coming off a primetime win over an NFC rival, and going east to face a team off a bye, but I need to see this team show up flat in order to start fading them just because it’s a “bad spot.”
I’d argue the Browns are in far more trouble, as Deshaun Watson can still barely throw coming out of the bye week. Whether it’s a dinged up Watson or an incapable backup, San Francisco’s defense will wreak havoc, and the offense will find a way with all those weapons.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)
DAL ML (-130) — 2-units
I was convinced the Niners would pound this team on the Sunday night stage, and wound up being right. While Dallas might have a hard time ultimately coming out of the conference, this team is still better than most, including the Chargers.
The Cowboys get a chance to avenge that embarrassing primetime loss in yet another primetime game. They get a long week to do so, and while the Chargers have had extra time off the bye I don’t know how much of an advantage that is this early in the season. Earlier in the season you want to build momentum and save that bye to get healthy later, so this could just as easily work against this mediocre Chargers team — especially with the coaching questions.
Both of these teams want to throw the ball, and have dangerous passing attacks. But only one of them has a good passing defense — Dallas ranks second in the NFL, while the Chargers rank dead-last. Los Angeles has allowed literally almost twice as many passing yards and Dallas. I’d say there’s zero home field advantage here, in what likely should be a pro-Cowboys crowd. Great bounce-back spot for Dallas.
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View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
