One week in the books on the NFL season, and we got some pretty wild results. Wasn’t a good week for my card, but I actually like quite a bit here in Week 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive into all of the action below.
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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB ML (-135) — 1-unit — adding Sunday morning
The Bears were a popular play entering the season, and now are a popular play to bounce-back in Week 2 after a terrible performance against the Packers. Problem is, I don’t trust that Chicago actually improved at all.
Tampa looked solid in a surprising road win at Minnesota in Week 1. While I don’t want to jump on the bandwagon and overreact to the Bucs, I do feel this is a good spot to come home and get another win against weak competition.
Going against the market here, but feel Tampa is the side due to the unexplainable Bears love out there.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
KC -3 (-122) — 1.5-units
This is one of a few numbers that has been on the move since I started writing this article. The Chiefs were sitting -3 (-110), then we got the news that I expected — both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones will suite up on Sunday.
I was fortunate to play 2.5 early in the week, prior to the Jones contract becoming official, but am fine giving this play out at -3. The number has shifted to 3.5, but with -102 juice as of Friday afternoon, so buying the key half-point is cheaper than usual.
As for the game itself, Jacksonville was having some legitimate struggles with the Colts before that game finally turned their way. From the looks of it, the offensive line could struggle, particularly with Jones back. While the simple/square handicap here is that you want to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs getting out to an 0-2 start, it is a part of the cap. I’m sure KC is pissed off about the result against the Lions, particularly without their second and third best players, who now return. Long week to prepare for this one should also help KC.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 46.5 (-110) — 1-unit
Both of these teams are pretty sharp on the defensive side of the ball, and it should only help how well they know each other within the division. These teams met three times last season, including the postseason, and all three fell short of this number. The totals landed 36, 43 and 41, leaving this one too high for me.
Joe Burrow missed the preseason, and while we should credit the Browns on defense in Week 1, it did seem the offense had some rust. Lamar Jackson, while playing efficient, was unable to find any huge plays, particularly with his legs against a below average Houston defense. Both offenses could take steps forward this week, but I still think the talent of the defenses combined with the familiarity should keep the scoring in the range we saw all three times they met in 2022.
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
UNDER 39 (-110) — 1-unit
I’m interested in the Cowboys as the side if the ML were cheaper to parlay with, or the spread were down to 8.5 to tease to 2.5. If we see 8.5 pop again, I’ll likely put out a 6-point teaser with Dallas as a leg.
But I think the next strongest play here would have to be the under. Of course, the easy side of the cap here is that Zach Wilson is at quarterback for the Jets, and he looked very shaky on MNF. Now on a short week on the road after an emotional OT victory, I agree with the perception that the Jets aren’t going to move the ball well in this game — particularly against a Dallas defense that shutout the Giants on the road on SNF.
I think the part that concerns bettors here is what the Cowboys will be able to do offensively in their home opener after dropping 40 against the Giants. I’m not as concerned with that aspect. Dallas has a near perfect game, benefiting from blocked kicks and elite field position off turnovers. While Wilson should be good for an interception or two, I don’t believe Dak Prescott will play flawless again. This Jets defense proved it’s elite on MNF, making Josh Allen look dreadful in that game. I see the Jets limiting Dallas here and keeping this game in the teens to low twenties.
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
DEN -3.5 (-105) — 1.5-units
I played the Broncos at home last week and took the loss to the Raiders. A late touchdown put Vegas ahead by one, and it was a game where starting the game with an onside kick might’ve been the difference in the end.
The Broncos absolutely have to win this game to have any hope this season, and I think they should flex against a Washington team that barely scrapped by Arizona at home. Washington made a ton of mistakes and didn’t show much big play ability at home against a doormat. I expect more of the same going on the road to face this Denver defense.
Javonte Williams OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — 1-unit
*Placed Thursday on Twitter — over is good to 49.5
I played this one at 43.5 on Thursday afternoon, and it was 45.5 by evening. As I was writing this article it popped to 48.5. Hopefully you grabbed it when I put it out, but if not, I still think this is good up to 50.
Williams split time in the backfield in his return from a serious knee injury, but his role could slightly grow each week. He still managed 52 rushing yards on 13 carries, and should be in a better spot this week. In a much worse spot, James Conner wound up carrying 14 times for 62 yards against Washington last week. If game script holds up here, we should see plenty of Williams pounding the rock late in this one.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
SF/NYG ML Parlay (-106) — 1-unit
The Rams scoring 30 points on the road in the division in Week 1 to get the win was one of the more shocking results in my opinion. I think they’re in for a dose of reality this week against a loaded Niners squad that always seems to have their number. Sure, the game is in Los Angeles, but this will be a San Fran crowd. I expect the 49ers to handle the Rams in this one, and may look to add some plays on this one. I do already have Niners -1.5 to wrap on a teaser from Thursday with the Eagles.
But I do like using the Niners to buy down the Giants, who desperately need a bounce-back in Week 2. After being blanked in primetime in Week 1, you couldn’t ask for a better situation to respond than a trip to Arizona. While the Cardinals might have looked a bit better than expected on Sunday, I think much of that can be attributed to the fact that the Commanders also just downright stink. Look for the G-Men to get right here.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
LEAN — NE +3 (-110)
I’ll probably add more on the three primetime games once we get to Sunday. This is a wait and see for me. I love the spot for the Pats, who played the Eagles tougher than most people thought. New England had chances to win outright, despite some massive early mistakes.
The perception on Miami is high right now, but it’s back-to-back road games for the Dolphins on opposite coasts, while the Pats stay home for the second time this season. Miami is coming off an emotional victory, and the defense was not impressive at all. The Chargers ran for a whopping 233 yards in Week 1, so expect New England to attempt to control this game on the ground.
The issues are that the offensive line is extremely dinged up, and Jonathan Jones (who has played Tyreek Hill very well throughout his career) is also dealing with an ankle. The Patriots’ injury report will probably determine if I can fire on the home dog.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
NO -3 (-110) — 1.5-units
The Panthers are the “sharp” side of this game, and I get it. There’s a million Week 2 trends that point to them. Home divisional dog, two teams that didn’t cover Week 1, etc. But Carolina is a bit too sharp for me in this instance, as I don’t trust the offense at all. Bryce Young could be the real deal long-term, but there are not enough weapons to rely on right now.
I bet the Saints to win this division pretty heavy prior to the season, and winning games like this one are the reason why. I think New Orleans should look better on both sides of the ball than it did in the opener against Tennessee, and likely win with some margin here on the road. Expect some mistakes from the rookie QB to play a role.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT +2.5 (-108) — 1.5-units
Much like the Patriots, I was ready to go in on the Steelers, but the injury to Cam Heyward is concerning. That said, I feel the Browns are wildly overrated. Cincy was rusty in that game, and the Browns benefited. Deshaun Watson was dreadful in Week 1, and I think this just may be the player he is now. Going on the road to Pittsburgh in primetime will continue to expose those issues.
The difference is, after a frustrating Week 1 against a loaded Niners team, I don’t expect the Steelers to lay an egg on offense like the Bengals did last week. Pittsburgh got just a couple points at home against the Niners … why would they now be home dogs to Cleveland?
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
