NFL Betting Systems for Week 1: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

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System: AFC underdogs vs. NFC

Last season, AFC underdogs took care of bettors when facing the NFC, going 21-13-2 ATS. Looking specifically at their play in Week 1, AFC underdogs have covered 56% of the time (14-10-1) in this setting over the last 10 seasons.

There are four games between non-conference opponents in Week 1, with three featuring an AFC underdog:

• SF at PIT +2.5
• TEN +3 at NO
• PHI @ NE +4

Here are a few other notes related to the plays within this system:

• TEN is 25-16-2 ATS (58.1%) as underdogs in the Mike Vrabel era.
• Over the last 10 seasons, PIT is 40-22-4 ATS (60.6%) as an underdog.
• NE went 2-7 ATS as an underdog last season.

Of the bunch, TEN +3 is my lean. New Orleans has a new QB in town, but that doesn’t always lead to instant success. Plus, the Titans are coming off a frustrating season. Vrabel isn’t going to let that happen again (at least, not at first).

Here are a few other measurables in play for this one:

• TEN is 7-4 ATS in the Vrabel era when playing as an underdog against an NFC team.
• When playing as an underdog, TEN is 23-18-2 ATS (53.5%) against Sunday’s 3-point spread.
• If you’re looking to sacrifice payout for security or want to wait for helpful movement (which is a very fair considering this game is currently set at a key number), know that TEN is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) at 3.5 points when playing as an underdog.

System: Under on the total for divisional games in Week 1

Taking the under is a good way to work up a sweat, but it’s proven to be the way to go in Week 1 since 2021. Including Thursday’s 41-point finish, the under is 21-12 in Week 1 since 2021. That’s a 63.6% success rate.

The under in any game this week is in play when looking at the system in broad terms, but a section of games begin to surface as better options when you start to look into the types of matchups. Non-divisional games have seen the under hit 58.3% of the time (14-10) in Week 1 over the last two seasons. Still appealing, but not as much as non-conference games, which have a hit rate of 69.2% (9-4) following Detroit’s Thursday night win.

But the highest hit rate toward the under for Week 1 over the last two seasons is divisional contests at 75% — as much as the sample size is just eight games (6-2). Because on top of that stat, the under had a 56% success rate (56-41-3) in all divisional games last season.

That puts the following games in play:

• CIN at CLE
• CAR at ATL
• JAX at IND
• LAV at DEN
• LAR at SEA
• GB at CHI
• DAL at NYG
• BUF at NYJ

Here are a few other notes related to the plays within this system:

• Monday’s battle in New York is the only Week 1 game between divisional opponents that features two teams who saw the under hit over 60% of the time in 2022.
• CLE, CAR, JAX, IND, LAR, SEA, CHI, BUF and NYJ have seen the under hit 57% of the time or more in divisional games over the last two seasons combined.
• NYJ (70.6%) saw the under hit most of any team in this group throughout 2022. Of the teams playing on Sunday, DEN (64.7%) saw the under hit most often from this group.

While all these options are playable, CIN at CLE is the Sunday play I lean toward most. (Monday’s BUF at NYJ is right there among the better options, too.)

Joe Burrow just got his big deal, but that calf is going to be a lingering concern all season long. Combine that with the factors mentioned above, and the under becomes very appealing. Then there are these numbers at play:

• CIN went 11-7-1 to the under last season.
• Against Sunday’s 47.5-point total over the last two seasons, the under is 24-16 in CIN games.
• The under is 3-1 against Sunday’s 47.5-point total over the last four CIN-CLE games.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.