The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will open their title defense against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. The Chiefs are looking for a third championship in the past four seasons. The Lions are looking to win the NFC North for the first time since 1993. Here we’ll go over the betting splits for odds on DraftKings Sportsbook with some interpretation.
Update — TE Travis Kelce is trending toward being ruled out for TNF vs. the Lions. He’s going to push to play so it feels more like a game-time decision that Kelce being questionable. With that said, he could be closer to doubtful but the decision won’t be made until closer to kickoff. Either way, monitor the news for any relevant updates and act accordingly.
Thursday Night Football betting splits
Lions vs. Chiefs
Chiefs -4.5
This line has moved 2.0 points since the Travis Kelce injury news. Right now, Kelce is questionable but could be held out for the opener based on the line movement. It’s a tough one to call. But with the spread down, 69% of the handle and 65% of the bets are on Kansas City at -4.5. If Kelce is deemed healthy and plays, there’s no reason we don’t see the line move back to -6.5. So getting the Chiefs at this line feels advantageous.
A lot of the backing on K.C. has to be homefield advantage. DT Chris Jones is holding out. If Kelce sits, the Chiefs are down arguably their two next best players behind Patrick Mahomes. The Lions are talented and added a lot of players on both sides of the ball.
Over/Under: 53
The handle is almost a near split at 51% on the over. The bets are coming in on the over as well at 61% on DKSB. The lean feels like the under. Follow the money. These are two talented teams with high-powered offenses. If Kelce is out, the Chiefs may struggle to convert on third down. You’d also expect plenty of running plays from the Lions with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit will want to control the clock, try and suppress the crowd and keep Mahomes off the field. This is a very high total for an NFL game. It’s also the first game of the season. We could see some rust early on. This game can be high scoring and still not hit, something like 28-24.
Moneyline
Chiefs -218, Lions +180
This is a very interesting market. We’ve got 51% of the handle on the Lions ML and 61% of the bets on the Chiefs ML. This feels like a very wide gap for these two teams in an opener, especially if Kelce is ruled out. Detroit on the ML feels like the lean. Again, follow the money. This should be a more evenly matched game and if Kelce is ruled out, we could see the line move even more in the Lions’ favor. If the spread gets down to -3.5 or even a FG, Lions at +180 feels like very good value.