Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Astros -135
Boston’s spiral has begun. Now in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Red Sox have lost six of their last nine. In fairness, that can easily happen when the only two teams you’re facing during that span are the Astros and Dodgers. With Houston still in Boston on Wednesday, there’s no reason to expect the Red Sox to get back on track.
Especially since Houston has Framber Valdez on the bump. While the left-hander hasn’t exactly had a glowing month, he bounced back in his latest start, going seven scoreless — despite that effort resulting in a loss. While he’ll face a Red Sox lineup that has a .181 ISO against left-handed pitching over the past month, Boston also has a 26.8% strikeout rate and 48.7% ground-ball rate against lefties throughout the same time frame.
As for systems at play, medium road favorites are streaking right now at 9-3 (75%) over the last seven days. Over the last 30 days, medium road favorites have won 61.4% of the time (43-27) and 59.1% (201-139) of the time throughout the season.
Also, favorites are 314-220 (58.8%) when playing after a win in which the under hit. Houston is 14-6 (70%) in this setting, and Boston is 4-10 as a dog after a loss in which the under hit.
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Texas Rangers at New York Mets
Rangers -155
Speaking of medium road favorites, Texas is the only other team that carries that label on Wednesday. Road interleague teams are also 16-11 (60.71%) over the last seven days.
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Additionally, the Rangers are also a favorite coming off a win in which the under hit. In this setting, Texas is 19-10 (65.5%). As road underdogs after a loss in which the under hit, the Mets are 4-11 (26.7%)
On top of that, Denyi Reyes is starting for the Mets. Although the right-hander did well out of the bullpen earlier in the season, he hasn’t exactly been lights out in his two 2023 starts. He’s given up five runs in both instances. That doesn’t bode well when facing a lineup that has a .192 ISO against righties over the last month of games.
On the other side, Dane Dunning hasn’t exactly been brilliant throughout August. But, the Mets provide him an opportunity to get a head of steam going into September. The Mets have just a .156 ISO against righties over the last month of games. Also, they have just a 31.7% hard-contact rate against righties during that span.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
